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WTA Madrid Open Tennis Odds, Picks, Predictions: Don’t Count Out Alexandrova Against Jabeur (May 5)

WTA Madrid Open Tennis Odds, Picks, Predictions: Don’t Count Out Alexandrova Against Jabeur (May 5) article feature image
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Europa Press Sports/Getty. Pictured: Ekaterina Alexandrova reacts after winning at the Madrid Open against Amanda Anisimova.

Madrid has been a fantastic tournament full of fascinating matchups, but we’re now down to four players left.

The good news is that I’ve found betting value on both of the WTA’s semifinal matches from Madrid.

Read on for two plays to think about in the Madrid semifinals.

Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.

Ons Jabeur (-193) vs.  Ekaterina Alexandrova (+155)

7:30 a.m. ET

Ekaterina Alexandrova continued her red-hot play on Wednesday. Alexandrova surprised Amanda Anisimova 6-4, 6-3 to reach the semifinals.

Against Anisimova, Alexandrova’s first serve was firing, as she won 75% of her first-serve points. On return, the Russian’s aggressiveness paid off, as she won 54% of her return points and broke Anisimova’s serve six times in ten service games.

Alexandrova played with excellent controlled aggression, once again. Ever since Miami, she has brought a good balance between aggressive shot-making and patience within rallies. Alexandrova constructed points very well against Anisimova and it allowed her to hit through the American effectively.

Ons Jabeur is playing excellent tennis in the Spanish capital. In her latest victory, Jabeur defeated Simona Halep 6-3, 6-2.

Jabeur won 66% of her service points against Halep, including 78% of her first serves. It’s no surprise that Jabeur was only broken once all match. On return, Jabeur won 50% of her return points and broke Halep’s serve four times. It was a complete match for the Tunisian.

The world No. 10 does a great job of keep opponents off-balance with her variety, including a low-bouncing backhand slice and drop shots. However, it’s not just variety for Jabeur, as she effectively hits her spots on serve and can use the forehand in particular to power through her opponents from the baseline.

Alexandrova is in excellent form at the moment. She’s patiently staying in rallies until she has the opportunity to strike and knows when the time is right to rip huge groundstrokes for winners. She also has a big first serve that can set up short balls and give her free points.

Jabeur’s variety and forehand are elite and will make Alexandrova uncomfortable at times, but in the Madrid altitude with the Russian hitting the ball this cleanly and with such great precision, I don’t think that Alexandrova will allow Jabeur to play her game.

Alexandrova, playing with this level of controlled aggression, will control how the match is played.

Pick: Alexandrova +3.5 games (-122 via PointsBet)

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Jessica Pegula (-136) vs. Jil Teichmann (+110)

3 p.m. ET

Jessica Pegula showcased her high tennis IQ in her quarterfinal victory in Madrid. Pegula beat Sara Sorribes Tormo 6-4, 6-2.

While Pegula only won 49% of her service points against Sorribes Tormo, she won 64% of her return points and broke serve eight times in nine Sorribes Tormo service games, despite Sorribes Tormo serving 78% of her first serves in. Pegula made it a point to attack the Sorribes Tormo serve.

Her patience on the court against Sorribes Tormo’s incredible defense was inspiring to watch. The American did a great job of waiting for her opportunity and she was unpredictable in the placement of her shots. The key shot for Pegula in this match was her backhand down the line, which frequently caught Sorribes Tormo off-guard.

Jil Teichmann is having the best tournament of her season in Madrid. In her latest win, she defeated Anhelina Kalinina 6-3, 6-4 to advance to the semifinals.

Teichmann returned very well against Kalinina, winning 52% of her return points, including 53% of her first-serve return points. Teichmann broke Kalinina’s serve five times and never allowed the Ukrainian to get a real foothold in the match.

The lefty has won four consecutive matches, all in straight sets. This is the first time all season she’s won more than two matches in a row.  Teichmann’s game is tricky on clay and she’s able to get consistent depth on her groundstrokes, blunting her opponents’ ability to attack. In addition, Teichmann has handled the altitude in Madrid well, playing with controlled aggression at a high level.

Teichmann’s playing excellent tennis this week and she’s been very consistent from the baseline. However, having just played Sorribes Tormo, Pegula should be very used to having to stay patient and wait for her opportunity to strike when she faces the Swiss.

In addition, Pegula’s backhand was excellent today, both when going cross court and when going up the line. Therefore, I’m confident that she won’t be fazed by Teichmann’s heavy cross-court forehands into her backhand.

Pegula also did a great job in the cat-and-mouse points against Sorribes Tormo, which will also be important in her match against Teichmann.

Pick: Pegula ML (-136 via FanDuel)

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