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Tuesday WTA Miami Tennis Odds, Picks, Predictions: Collins Can Match Osaka’s Power

Tuesday WTA Miami Tennis Odds, Picks, Predictions: Collins Can Match Osaka’s Power article feature image
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Michael Errey/Getty. Pictured: Danielle Collins celebrates in a match against Ana Konjuh.

  • Naomi Osaka is a short favorite to Danielle Collins at the Miami Open.
  • Tennis analyst David Gertler evaluates the match, as well as a showdown between Belinda Bencic and Daria Saville.

We are finally down to the quarterfinals in Miami!

And the good news for us is that I’ve spotted value in  both of Tuesday’s matches, including a play on Danielle Collins vs Naomi Osaka.

Here are two bets I’m playing from the WTA Miami this afternoon and evening.

Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.

Belinda Bencic (-350) vs Daria Saville (+260)

3 p.m. ET

Belinda Bencic comfortably beat Aliaksandra Sasnovich to reach the quarterfinals in Miami. Bencic won eight games in a row at one point during her 6-2, 6-3 victory.

Bencic won 54% of her return points and broke serve in 5/8 Sasnovich service games. She also won 73% of her first serves and was only broken twice in the match. Bencic’s baseline game was also strong as she hit with good controlled aggression.

The Swiss hasn’t dropped a set all tournament, beating Marta Kostyuk, Heather Watson and Sasnovich.  Bencic has won at least 60% of her second serve returns in every match this week. She is a dangerous opponent who is a great ball striker.

Daria Saville will come into this match full of confidence. Saville beat Lucia Bronzetti from a set down to advance to the quarterfinals.

In that match, Saville came back from 3-5* down in the third and saved a match point. She won 48% of the points on Bronzetti’s first serve and broke the Italian’s serve six times. No opponent this week has won 65% of her first-serve points against Saville.

The Aussie has won 11 of her last 13 matches, including the quarterfinals of Guadalajra and round of 16 in Indian Wells. Her counterpunching during this stretch of tennis has been superb and her forehand is heavy and landing deep in the court.

This match will come down to whether Bencic can dominate from the baseline or whether Saville can effectively counterpunch.

Saville can frustrate Bencic with both her movement and shot-making from defensive positions in the court. No one that Bencic has played this week moves as well as Saville does and shots that would be winners earlier this week will come back.

Saville has beaten very good players such as Ons Jabeur and Elise Mertens during her run. She won’t be intimated by playing Bencic and will enter this match as a confident underdog.

Bencic’s baseline game and ball striking will most likely prevail,  but Saville is playing well enough to take this match over the total.

Pick:   Over 20.5 games (-118 via PointsBet)

Danielle Collins (+160) vs Naomi Osaka (-200)

7:15 p.m. ET

Danielle Collins played like she did during her run to the Australian Open final against Ons Jabeur in Miami’s round of 16. Collins beat Jabeur 6-2, 6-4 in a comfortable victory.

In the match against Jabeur, Collins served 69% of her first serves into play and won 73% of both her first and second serve points. Collins’ prowess on her serve should not come as a surprise, as she has won the fourth-highest percentage of service points out of all active WTA players this season.

On return, Collins won 69% of the points on Jabeur’s second serve and broke Jabeur’s serve four times. Collins blasted groundstrokes from both wings, but particularly from her backhand side. She forced Jabeur on the defensive for much of the match.

Naomi Osaka played very clean tennis in her 6-3, 6-4 victory over Alison Riske. Osaka blasted an impressive 40 winners in the match and overwhelmed Riske with the pace and heaviness of her groundstrokes.

Osaka won 70% of her first-serve points and saved seven of eight break points. When Osaka needed a huge first serve, she managed to hit her spots more often than not. Osaka isn’t very far behind Collins at seventh in service points won among active players.

And Osaka returned at a high level, as well. She won 45% of her return points and generated 12 break points. Osaka did have brief dips in her baseline game, but overall struck the ball so cleanly and did a great job of fitting the ball into small targets.

This should be a close match between two huge ball strikers. Osaka’s forehand is a bit better than Collins’ forehand, but at this point in time, I like Collins’ aggressive backhand more.

Osaka’s second serve sat up today and wasn’t well-placed in the box (in contrast to her first serve), although Riske only won 48% of Osaka’s second-serve points. However, look for Collins to be aggressive and attack Osaka second serves.

It’s also important to note that Collins’ overall and hard-court Elo ratings are a bit above Osaka’s at this point.

If we’re getting games, Collins is a good bet.

Pick: Collins +3.5 games (-125 via BetMGM)

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