WTA Picks, Predictions: Abu Dhabi Betting Preview, Best Bets (Monday, Feb. 6)
Clive Brunskill/Getty. Pictured: Danielle Collins.
WTA Abu Dhabi is upon us and main draw action begins on Monday.
I’ve found value on two of the fascinating matches for us to exploit.
Read on for my WTA picks and predictions!
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Picks, Predictions
Elise Mertens (-400) vs. Martina Trevisan (+270)
6 a.m. ET
Elise Mertens made the third round of the Australian Open before running into eventual champion Aryna Sabalenka. Mertens won just 50% of her service points and 30% of her return points in that match as she was overwhelmed by Sabalenka’s power. The good news for the Belgian is that Trevisan lacks these weapons.
Mertens struggled in 2022 by her standards, going just 30-23. After getting injured last season in Istanbul, Mertens struggled to find her rally tolerance and any semblance of an offensive game before slowly regaining her form to end the year.
She has excellent consistent depth on her groundstrokes. Mertens anticipates well, understands point construction and can play offensively when given the opportunity.
Martina Trevisan had a disastrous Australian Open, losing in the first round to qualifier Anna Karolina Schmiedlova 3-6, 2-6. Trevisan only managed to win 26% of her first-serve returns on Schmiedlova’s mediocre serve. The Italian also won just 49% of her service points and hit 12 winners versus 23 unforced errors in the match.
Trevisan is a weaker hard-court player, going 51-59 as a professional, including a 11-13 record last season. Trevisan is at her best on clay, given her heavy lefty forehand that she uses to dictate play. Unfortunately for the Italian, her forehand sits up on hard courts, waiting to be smacked. In addition, Trevisan’s backhand is a liability and she’s less comfortable moving on hard.
Mertens is much more at home on hard courts than Trevisan. On hard, she has a higher rally tolerance, gets better depth, and her groundstrokes cut through the court more.
Look for Mertens to be patient out there, extending rallies before getting the chance to target the weakest shot on the court – Trevisan’s backhand. Mertens will also crush Trevisan’s weak serve and the Italian’s return performance against Schmiedlova was brutal.
When looking at Elo ratings, Mertens’ overall Elo is 114.5 points higher than Trevisan’s and her hard-court Elo is 163.7 points above the Italian’s.
Pick: Trevisan to NOT win a set (-118 via FanDuel)
Danielle Collins (-135) vs. Jelena Ostapenko (+106)
9:15 a.m. ET
Danielle Collins made the third round in Melbourne, but fell 2-6, 7-5, 2-6 to eventual finalist Elena Rybakina. Collins won 70% of her first-serve points, but only won 43% of her second serves, getting broken on four occasions.
Collins is a strong hard-court player, having made the final of the 2022 Australian Open, with an 18-7 record on hard last season. The American plays with excellent controlled aggression, controlling the baseline nicely and punishing her opponents when they leave a ball short. Collins is especially potent with her backhand.
Jelena Ostapenko made the quarterfinals of the Australian Open before (like Collins) losing to Rybakina, 2-6, 4-6. Ostapenko won just 55% of her first serves and 34% of her return points. Rybakina did not allow Ostapenko to get away with her mediocre first serve.
Ostapenko went 33-19 in 2022, including a 22-13 record on hard courts. She is known for her all-out aggression from the baseline, playing with various degrees of control, but hitting her opponents off the court when she’s in a groove. However, the Latvian often looks like a fish out of water when she’s not dictating play.
Both players will want to be dictating play, but Collins is the better defender of the two and is more comfortable absorbing pace.
The American plays with more margin on her groundstrokes and has the more reliable baseline game. In addition, Collins’ backhand will be the best shot on the court.
I also trust Collins’ first serve more than Ostapenko’s. In 2022, Collins had the 17th-best first-serve win percentage on the WTA Tour at 70% points won.
Finally, don’t let Ostapenko’s run in Australia influence you, as both players lost to the same opponent, and Collins was much more competitive.
Pick: Collins ML (-135 via PointsBet)
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