New York Guardians vs. Dallas Renegades XFL Betting Odds, Pick & Analysis: Prepare to Feel “Under”-whelmed

New York Guardians vs. Dallas Renegades XFL Betting Odds, Pick & Analysis: Prepare to Feel “Under”-whelmed article feature image
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Credit: Michael Owens/Getty Images. Pictured: Jamar Summers

  • It's a tale of two struggling offenses as New York and Dallas (-7) meet up on Saturday (5 p.m. ET, FOX) in Texas.
  • With the Renegades missing starting QB Landry Jones and the Guardians struggling all season on offense, our experts are targeting the over/under.
  • See the full betting breakdown below.

New York Guardians at Dallas Renegades Odds

  • Spread: Renegades -7
  • Total: 37
  • Kickoff: 5 p.m. ET on Saturday
  • TV: FOX

Our staff previews Saturday’s game, complete with their projected spread and two picks.

Guardians vs. Renegades Injury Report

The Guardians are amazingly healthy. Every single player on their injury report for Thursday practiced in full. The only questionable player is free safety Andrew Soroh (head, knee), but he seems likely to suit up.

The player to monitor most is quarterback Matt McGloin (thorax), who missed Week 4. In his absence, the Guardians managed a 17-14 win over the Los Angeles Wildcats, but they averaged just 2.7 yards per play.

This week, McGloin reportedly split first-team reps with backup Luis Perez, who had a 69.3% completion rate in Week 4, so it’s not a given that McGloin will reclaim his starting job.

We might not have any clarity on the Guardians quarterback situation until a couple of hours before kickoff.

As for the Renegades, they will be without starting quarterback Landry Jones (knee) and starting left guard Salesi Uhatafe, who last played in Week 3. Otherwise, they are healthy — but it’s tremendously less than ideal for them to have a backup quarterback starting behind a compromised offensive line. — Matthew Freedman

Key Mismatch

Dallas Running Backs vs. Guardians Run Defense

With starting quarterback Landry Jones (knee) out, the Renegades will likely need to lean on their running backs.

The Guardians have given up 113.5 rushing yards per game this season (the third-highest average in the league), and in Week 3 they struggled to stop St. Louis BattleHawks running backs Matt Jones and Christine Michael, who combined for 139 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

As big home favorites, the Renegades could have a run-heavy game script, which would benefit the backfield duo of Cameron Artis-Payne and Lance Dunbar, and the team is No. 1 with an 81.0 running grade (per Pro Football Focus).

Artis-Payne especially seems positioned for a big game. He leads the league with a 51.3% rushing market share and 88.7 PFF running grade. And he’s No. 1 among all starting backs with 5.3 yards per carry.

But Dunbar is not to be ignored. He has 5.0 yards per carry on the year and 3.14 yards after contact per carry, which is impressive for a smaller, change-of-pace back.

And if the running game stalls, both backs are strong receivers. Artis-Payne leads all backs with 86 routes, and Dunbar is first at the position with 25 targets, more than any wide receiver on his team has.

One way or another, Artis-Payne and Dunbar are likely to produce, probably be through the running game. — John Ferguson

Our Projected Odds

You’ll find our experts’ consensus spread as well as Sean Koerner’s total below. Find their projections for every Week 5 game here.

  • Our Experts’ Consensus Spread: Renegades -7.8
  • Koerner’s Projected Total: 35.4

Picks

Chris Raybon: Renegades-Guardians Under 37.5

You generally need to be able to throw the ball to get over the total, and all three of New York’s quarterbacks are below the league average of 6.5 yards per pass attempt: Luis Perez “leads” the way at 6.2, followed by Marquise Williams at 5.9 and Matt McGoin at 5.3.

Dallas may be joining New York in the league’s passing basement with starting quarterback Landry Jones (knee) out. Jones averaged a respectable 6.6 yards per attempt, but backup Phillip Nelson is averaging only 5.0 on 21 attempts, last in the XFL among 11 quarterbacks with 20-plus attempts.

Guardians games are averaging an XFL-low 30.0 combined points, and Renegades games are averaging 37.5 combined points, tied for third-lowest.

The league-wide median for all games so far is 38.5, and this total comes way too close to that for two teams who each have quarterback issues, and whose combined point totals have been below average.

I would bet the under down to 36.

[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

Bill Monighetti: Renegades-Guardians Under 37.5

With Jones expected to miss multiple games, Dallas is forced to turn to Nelson. Jones had essentially become the Jameis Winston of the XFL with his high yardage, high interception profile, but he kept the offense moving.

I do not expect quite as much from Nelson, who dinked-and-dunked his way to 209 passing yards on 169 air yards in Week 1 in a 15-9 loss to St. Louis. The BattleHawks’ defense is in a different class than the Guardians’, but New York held Tampa Bay to just 3 points in Week 1 and Los Angeles to 14 points in Week 4.

Meanwhile, the Guardians have struggled on offense all year. They are ranked last in the league at 12.3 points per game. They have been even worse on the road, scoring only 9 total points in two games away from MetLife Stadium. Quarterback play has been an issue, and that doesn’t figure to change in Week 5 even with Matt McGloin (thorax) trending towards a return.

I expect this to be an ugly, low-scoring game and would bet the under down to 36.

[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

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