2023 Sony Open Odds, Expert Picks: Our Best Bets for Corey Conners, Maverick McNealy, More

2023 Sony Open Odds, Expert Picks: Our Best Bets for Corey Conners, Maverick McNealy, More article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: Corey Conners (left) and Billy Horschel.

  • The PGA TOUR heads to Honolulu this week for the Sony Open in Hawaii.
  • Our experts have a handful of best bets for the first full-field event of the calendar year, including a play on Corey Conners.
  • Find their picks and analysis for the tournament below.
Click arrow to expand 2023 Sony Open odds via bet365
Player NameOdds
Tom Kim+1000
Sungjae Im+1200
Jordan Spieth+1400
Hideki Matsuyama+1800
Brian Harman+1800
Russell Henley+2000
Corey Conners+2200
Tom Hoge+2200
Kyoung-Hoon Lee+3000
Billy Horschel+3000
Cameron Davis+3300
Maverick McNealy+3300
Keegan Bradley+3300
Taylor Montgomery+3500
Keith Mitchell+3500
Adam Scott+3500
Harris English+4000
Si Woo Kim+4000
J.J. Spaun+4000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout+4500
Alex Smalley+4500
J.T. Poston+4500
Matt Kuchar+5000
Gary Woodland+5000
Andrew Putnam+5000
Emiliano Grillo+5000
Denny McCarthy+5500
Kurt Kitayama+5500
Mackenzie Hughes+5500
Webb Simpson+7000
Hayden Buckley+7000
Adam Svensson+7500
Robby Shelton+8000
Will Gordon+8000
Chris Kirk+8000
Brendan Steele+8000
Nick Hardy+9000
Brendon Todd+9000
Aaron Rai+10000
Patton Kizzire+10000
Greyson Sigg+10000
Russell Knox+10000
Ryan Palmer+10000
Stephan Jaeger+10000
David Lipsky+11000
Ben Griffin+12500
Troy Merritt+12500
Kevin Streelman+14000
S.H. Kim+14000
Lucas Glover+15000
Ryan Armour+15000
Brandon Wu+15000
Justin Suh+15000
Sam Ryder+15000
Mark Hubbard+15000
Adam Schenk+16000
Ben Taylor+16000
Stewart Cink+16000
Keita Nakajima+17500
Adam Long+17500
Davis Thompson+17500
Scott Piercy+17500
MJ Daffue+17500
Joseph Bramlett+17500
Chez Reavie+17500
Zac Blair+20000
Nick Taylor+20000
David Lingmerth+20000
Kevin Yu+20000
Kazuki Higa+20000
Carl Yuan+20000
Michael Thompson+22500
Erik Barnes+22500
Yuto Katsuragawa+22500
Taiga Semikawa+22500
Brian Stuard+25000
Matti Schmid+25000
Austin Cook+25000
Ryan Moore+25000
Zecheng Dou+25000
Tyson Alexander+25000
Ben Martin+25000
Kramer Hickok+25000
Harry Higgs+25000
Cole Hammer+25000
Chesson Hadley+25000
Byeong-Hun An+25000
Aaron Baddeley+25000
Matthias Schwab+25000
Nate Lashley+30000
Robert Streb+30000
Rory Sabbatini+30000
Harrison Endycott+30000
Danny Lee+30000
Zach Johnson+30000
Austin Eckroat+30000
Eric Cole+30000
Peter Malnati+30000
Brice Garnett+30000
Paul Haley II+30000
Tyler Duncan+35000
Michael Kim+35000
Doc Redman+35000
Harry Hall+35000
Vincent Norrman+35000
Austin Smotherman+35000
Jonathan Byrd+35000
Andrew Novak+40000
Jerry Kelly+40000
Kevin Tway+40000
Sam Stevens+40000
Kaito Onishi+40000
Chad Ramey+40000
Dylan Wu+40000
Kevin Roy+50000
Brent Grant+50000
Michael Gligic+50000
Kelly Kraft+50000
Augusto Nunez+50000
Ryan Brehm+50000
Austen Truslow+50000
Scott Harrington+60000
Trevor Cone+60000
Kyle Westmoreland+60000
Max McGreevy+60000
Jim Herman+60000
Kyle Stanley+60000
Jimmy Walker+60000
Tano Goya+75000
Brandon Matthews+75000
Richy Werenski+75000
K.J. Choi+75000
Nicolas Echavarria+75000
Joseph Winslow+75000
Carson Young+100000
George Markham+100000
Danny Guise+100000
Trevor Werbylo+150000
Kohei Okada+150000
Jesse Mueller+150000
Anders Albertson+150000
Parker McLachlin+150000
Blaze Akana+150000
Michael Castillo+250000

We're hopping islands and moving from Maui to Honolulu, where we'll take a look at 2023 Sony Open odds.

Golf bettors should get used to seeing Tom Kim toward the top of odds boards in 2023. That's where he stands in the PGA Tour's first full-field event of the year.

Check out our full breakdown with Sony Open picks below.

The must-have app for bettors

The best betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

Favorite We’re Backing

Jason Sobel: Corey Conners

Chris Murphy: Tom Kim

Matt Vincenzi: Corey Conners

Spencer Aguiar: Sungjae Im

Nick Bretwisch: Keegan Bradley

Best Long Shot

Jason Sobel: Kurt Kitayama

Chris Murphy: Robby Shelton

Matt Vincenzi: Chez Reavie

Spencer Aguiar: Greyson Sigg

Nick Bretwisch: Alex Smalley

Biggest Bust

Jason Sobel: Taylor Montgomery

Chris Murphy: Taylor Montgomery

Matt Vincenzi: Taylor Montgomery

Spencer Aguiar: Kurt Kitayama

Nick Bretwisch: Cam Davis

Contrarian Player To Target

Jason Sobel: Cam Davis

Chris Murphy: Si Woo Kim

Matt Vincenzi: Adam Scott

Spencer Aguiar: Justin Suh

Nick Bretwisch: Billy Horschel

Trend That Guides Your Betting Strategy

Jason Sobel: Glad you asked. This is one of my favorite trend weeks of the year, and I’ve got two of ’em.

The first is that we should pay special attention to those who played in the Sentry TOC last week. Over the past six years, Kapalua competitors accounted for just 15.9% of the Sony field, yet they’ve won five of six titles, claimed 39% of the top-10s and made the cut 73% of the time.

An ability to dust off the cobwebs beforehand has proven to be a massive edge. The second is that Waialae is a ball-striker’s track. It seems we say this about most venues, but here’s some definitive proof: Of the 70 players who have finished among the top 20 here in the past three years, 69 of them have done so with a positive strokes gained tee-to-green number. If you’re showing some rust with the driver and irons, you’re not showing up on this leaderboard.

Chris Murphy: The theme of this week always seems to be about the players who shook the rust off last week at the Tournament of Champions.

The first three players on my card this week all teed it up at Kapalua, and if I add a fourth it will be the same story for him. It’s tough to jump into a week after such a long layoff as the Tour takes from the RSM Classic in November to now, and that is why we have seen so many of the past champions come from the field at the TOC.

Matt Vincenzi: Seventeen of the past 18 winners have played the course before. Eight of the past nine winners have played the prior week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

Spencer Aguiar: It is a two-step equation for me this week at the Sony Open. Find me the golfers who best combine locating fairways and managing proximity between 125-200 yards, and I will show you who has the best shot of walking out of Waialae with the title.

The field combines to hit 21% fewer fairways this week than we saw at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, and while missing the short grass doesn't remove you entirely from contention, it does provide extra problems to encounter from the aforementioned yardage range since nearly 13% more shots occur in that 75-yard bucket than your average stop on Tour when we talk about proximity.

My model has noticed a spike in expected performance for those that hit a higher-than-average GIR rate for the week, which is why we need players that can avoid trouble off the tee and continue the trend with stellar iron control.

Nick Bretwisch: I’ll echo Spencer this week. I’m looking for golfers who hit fairways at an elite clip, strong iron play from 150+ and positive trends on their bermuda putting. Yes, coming off of the Tournament of Champions tuneup is a plus, but I’m not making four rounds last week a priority when attacking the board.

My numbers state that conservative fairway finders of the tee have a significant advantage over those bombers who can make up strokes with their creative scrambling. Distance with the big stick means nothing to me this week. Ah la, my love for Billy Horschel.

Our Best Bets

Jason Sobel: Maverick McNealy — Top 20 (+185)

I’ll have Corey Conners and Cam Davis – each of whom I mentioned above – on my card this week, but if we’re talking “best bet,” then I’m going with a more conservative play that holds a ton of equity.

McNealy finished in the top 20 in four of his final five starts of 2022, and since the beginning of 2021, he’s broken this threshold in 18 of his 50 starts. He owns such a high floor for a player of his status that I’ve started calling him this generation’s Charles Howell III. His ceiling is still in question, but he posts a solid performance nearly every single week. Despite being a big hitter, he has shown a propensity for playing his best golf on shorter tracks such as this one.

Pick: Maverick McNealy — Top 20 (+185)

Chris Murphy: Corey Conners +2500 (BetMGM)

There’s a lot of history that shows trends to top finishes for players who shook the rust off at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. My list will start with the best course fits this week, and Conners is certainly part of that group. Everything comes down to the short game for the Canadian as his ball striking combination can always have him in the hunt, and it has led to top-12 finishes in each of the past three times he has played this tournament. Conners closed this week on a high note with a six-under Sunday round to finish T18.

As noted, Conners has posted some strong finishes in his prior trips to the Sony Open, and there is some level of comfort for him on these greens. He has gained strokes putting in each of his past four appearances, gaining more than five shots on the greens in two of those. I try not to take too much stock in small samples like that, but it certainly catches my eye when we are talking about a player who hasn’t finished a season better than 112th in putting over the past five years. If he has another week like that on the greens this week, we have all the reason to believe his ball striking will have him in the hunt on the weekend.

Matt Vincenzi: Billy Horschel +3500 (DraftKings)

Horschel also fits the familiar theme on my outright card of having played last week's Sentry Tournament of Champions. Kapalua wasn't the best course fit for Horschel, but Waialae should be more in his wheelhouse.

In his start in 2021 at the Sony Open, Horschel finished in seventh place and gained a whopping 8.0 strokes putting on the field. With the emphasis on putting this week, he's a good candidate to catch a hot putter in Hawaii.

Last week, Horschel struggled off the tee. With this week's course being much shorter and with fewer heavy hitters at the top of the odds board, he should have an easier time keeping up with the field off the tee. His approach play was encouraging as he gained 3.5 strokes on approach.

The 36-year-old struggled after the offseason layoff and opened last week's event with a terrible round of +3. However, he bounced back in the following three rounds, shooting under par each day, including an excellent round of 64 (-9) on Saturday.

If he can carry his weekend momentum with him to Honolulu, he should be able to capitalize on the weaker field.

Spencer Aguiar: Greyson Sigg +100 over Robby Shelton (DraftKings)

There were a handful of 200/1 totals hovering around in the industry on Greyson Sigg to win this tournament before I felt like I did my part in pushing it down to under 100/1 at most locations, but let's continue a card of mine that will be diligently stacked in the direction of the 27-year-old and target him in a matchup against Robby Shelton on DraftKings at +100.

As is always the case with head-to-head wagers that I recommend, my first line of business is finding a fade candidate that I am hoping to take on for the week, and Shelton fits what I am looking for ideally. He ranks 60th in my model overall sense and slips outside the top 70 when I start to incorporate a heavier batch of numerical metrics into the mix.

Yes, I realize Shelton was one of the big movers in most models before the break stopped his progression and stunted him from adding onto his three top-25 finishes in five starts. However, my model believes a venue that rewards around-the-green prowess (and doesn't restrict it because of the need for an increased GIR rate for scoring) would be the better location for him to find success.

His 113th-place mark for Weighted Bermuda, 65th-place grade in Weighted Birdie or Better and 67th-place return for Ball Striking generates this alarming profile that could go in the wrong direction if his irons are off. While Shelton’s Greens in Regulation Rate and Scrambling stats show fine in my sheet, the broad array of flat production from Sigg is something that my model likes when trying to find safety in this event that will produce a 36-hole cut.

Nick Bretwisch: Alex Smalley — Top 40 +110

Alex Smalley is arguably my favorite value play on the board in terms of DFS/Sports Betting exposure for the Sony Open. Smalley is a respectable fairway finder with elite 150+ yard iron play and comes into the weekend with three straight Top-15 finishes to close out the fall swing.

Smalley missed the cut at his first go at the Sony Open in 2022 after a brutal showing on the greens in Round 2. His putting is likely the downside to his game but the data shows he’s significantly better on bermuda surfaces in regards to his baseline putting numbers. I’ll ride the form of Alex Smalley and his 2022 success on short tracks my numbers like to use as a baseline for the Sony Open (like TPC River Highlands, Port Royal, and St. George’s).

Pick: Alex Smalley — Top 40 (+110)

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