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Aaron Judge Home Run Odds: 6-Game Drought Brings Number Down For 61st Home Run

Aaron Judge Home Run Odds: 6-Game Drought Brings Number Down For 61st Home Run article feature image
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Thomas Skrlj/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge Home Run Odds for Tuesday

Sportsbook Odds
FanDuel +270 (max wager $50)
BetRivers +210
Caesars +195
DraftKings +190
BetMGM +190
PointsBet +177

Odds as of Tuesday afternoon

Aaron Judge’s home run odds are starting to reflect the any-day-now anticipation that’s possessed baseball since the Yankees slugger notched his 60th of the season.

The best odds for Judge to tie the American League single-season record and hit his 61st home run Tuesday night vs. the Toronto Blue Jays are +270 at FanDuel, under an odds boost capped at $50 a wager. BetRivers has the second best at +210.

A few days ago, no sportsbook could afford to offer odds so low as his average price hovered around +260.

Judge, who’s hit a home run in every 2.5 games he’s played this year, has failed to homer in six straight games. That’s tied for his third-longest homer drought of the season (his longest was a nine game stretch in August).

Action Network’s Sean Zerillo, on today’s episode of Payoff Pitch, noted he wouldn’t bet on Judge homering tonight unless it’s at +215 odds or better.

But while sportsbooks lower his odds with probability of him tying the record increasing by the game, that hasn’t deterred bettors — a sign of oddsmakers’ respect for the home run leader and the public’s tendency to bet on headlines.

Still Prop Bet King

Judge’s home run prop is drawing the most tickets of any MLB bet on today’s slate of games at Caesars. If that holds through the night it’ll be the fifth time in six days that’s happened.

DraftKings is offering Judge to homer at +190, a huge drop from when the sportsbook ran a special promo all last week that juiced his odds as high as +322.

DraftKings still has more money and bets on him to homer than any other player prop for Tuesday night — which has been the case virtually all summer.

Tuesday's most popular MLB player bets at DraftKings:
1. Aaron Judge O .5 HRs +190
2. Jorge Mateo U .5 Hits +145
3. Jose Trevino U .5 Hits +135
4. Akil Baddoo U .5 Hits +110
5. Ha-Seong Kim U .5 Hits +165

Seems getting rid of its 61% Judge odds boost has had 0 effect on betting.

— Sam McQuillan (@sam_mcquill) September 27, 2022

PointsBet has notably stopped offering a boosted odds specials on Judge to homer as well. It’s offering Judge to homer on Tuesday at +175 — a 95-point drop from Friday.

At BetRivers, which offers odds on him not to homer as well (-265), 95% of money and 97% of bets on the prop are on him homering, up from last night.

WynnBet is reporting the opposite, with 66% of bets and 93% of the money on Judge continuing his home drought tonight.

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