The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Detroit Tigers on July 23, 2025. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSDET.
The Pirates will look to sweep the series today with Bailey Falter on the mound against the Tigers' Troy Melton, who will be making his first start in the majors.
Find my MLB betting preview and Tigers vs Pirates prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Tigers vs Pirates Prediction
- Tigers vs Pirates picks: Under 9 (-119, DraftKings)
My Tigers vs Pirates best bet is Under 9 total runs for this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Pirates Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +113 | 9 -102o / -119u | -149 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -137 | 9 -102o / -119u | +123 |
Tigers vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Troy Melton (DET) | Stat | LHP Bailey Falter (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| MLB debut | W-L | 6-5 |
| — | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| — | ERA / xERA | 4.00 / 4.50 |
| — | FIP / xFIP | 5.01 / 4.95 |
| — | WHIP | 1.22 |
| — | K-BB% | 6.3 |
| — | GB% | 36.2 |
| — | Stuff+ | 95 |
| — | Location+ | 97 |
Tigers vs Pirates Preview
The Tigers will hand the ball to rookie Troy Melton.
Facing the Pirates might be the best welcome to the majors.
The Pittsburgh offense has been abysmal all season long, ranking 29th among MLB lineups in wRC+ with 78, 27th in average with .231 and dead last in slugging with .341.
Despite two straight wins and yesterday's outburst, the Pirates have been even worse in July with a 53 wRC+, .212 average and .294 slugging, ranking last in the majors in all three categories.
They will have to rely on Bailey Falter, whose home splits are encouraging for this match since he holds a 3.65 ERA at home compared to his 4.43 ERA on the road.
The Tigers have not been very productive in July, sitting at the 24th spot in wRC+ with 93, 28th in average with .218 and 25th in slugging with .372.
This aligns with our Bet Labs recommendation for the under.
Tigers vs Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis
This MLB betting system, titled "Steam Unders with Low OU Support", is built on the premise that sharp money moving totals downward, paired with weak public support on the under, creates an exploitable edge in the betting market.
The strategy focuses on regular-season games from 2019 to 2025 where the closing total lands between 8 and 10 — sweet spots for scoring volatility. It isolates games where the total has dropped significantly from open to close, signaling smart money on the Under. Yet, public sentiment heavily favors the Over, with only a small share of bets backing the Under.
This mismatch between the amount of money and the ticket count indicates potential value, especially when the difference between the two figures is meaningful but not extreme.
To reduce noise, the system excludes games played in extreme heat or cold, only including those where temperatures range from mild to warm. It also requires both teams to have a recent record of games that hover around the total, suggesting no extreme streaks skewing expectations.
These filters ensure that neither team is riding unsustainable Over or Under trends. Ultimately, this system looks for low-confidence unders that have been steamed down by sharp bettors, where public interest is light and the number still sits within a realistic scoring range.
The result is a consistent edge, supported by a large sample size and a strong return on investment.
Pick: Under 9 (-119, DraftKings)
