MLB Odds & Picks: 3 Thursday Best Bets, Including Tigers vs. Mets, Marlins vs. Braves (May 4)
Pictured: Ronald Acuna Jr. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
- There are 10 MLB games on Thursday's schedule and our experts have a trio of best bets.
- They've found value on Tigers vs. Mets, Angels vs. Cardinals and Braves vs. Marlins.
- Continue reading for the best bets and analysis.
Thursday's MLB slate features 10 games and our experts have found value in a trio of spots.
They're targeting a spread and a pair of moneylines in the afternoon on Thursday, May 4.
Continue reading for our three best MLB bets.
Thursday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Mets vs. Tigers
Thursday, May 4 1:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Mets -1.5 (-108)  |
By Nick Shlain
The New York Mets aren’t actually going to get swept by the Detroit Tigers, are they?
New York dropped both ends of Wednesday's doubleheader in Detroit, including an 8-1 drubbing with Max Scherzer on the mound against his former team. The Mets will have another ace who once called Detroit home on the mound Thursday afternoon in Justin Verlander and one of my favorite bets on Thursday's slate is the Mets -1.5. Verlander will be making his season debut and homecoming in Detroit.
On the other side, Eduardo Rodriguez goes for the Tigers. While Rodriguez has a minuscule 2.21 ERA, his xFIP is quite a bit higher at 3.91. Rodriguez has a career 4.08 ERA and a 4.07 xFIP. He’s having a good season, but it’s only been six starts. Rodriguez is sporting a .219 BABIP and 87% LOB%, both well below his career numbers of a .304 BABIP and 73% LOB%. The Mets have a strong lineup and should be able to take advantage of a pitcher due for regression. Back the Mets on the run line behind their new ace.
Pick: Mets -1.5 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Angels vs. Cardinals
Thursday, May 4 1:15 p.m. ET MLB Network |
Angels Moneyline (+125)  |
Griffin Canning hasn't been that great after missing the entirety of last season. He has a 5.01 xERA through three starts, but there have been some positive signs. His slider has been elite with a 130 Stuff+ rating and the good news is that is now his most thrown pitch, surpassing the below-average fastball he previously relied on. Canning's command has also been really good as he has an impressive 104 Pitching+ rating.
Dating back to the start of last season, the Cardinals only have a .214 xBA against right-handed sliders. Additionally, St. Louis' offense has been very average versus right-handed pitching this season, ranking 16th in wOBA.
Jack Flaherty will be on the mound for the Cardinals and it's now four years running that he's put up very bad expected metrics. Through six starts, he has a 5.18 xERA, but his actual ERA is 3.94, so he's been drastically overperforming. The Stuff+ numbers are not promising either. None of his pitches have a Stuff+ rating over 95 and his overall Stuff+ rating is 92, which is in the bottom 25 among qualified starting pitchers.
So, I think it's a little crazy that Flaherty is this big of a favorite when the offensive and starting pitching matchups are virtually even.
I only have the Cardinals projected at -102, so I like the value on the Angels at +125.
Pick: Angels Moneyline |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Braves vs. Marlins
Thursday, May 4 4:10 p.m. ET MLB Network |
Braves Moneyline (-155)  |
By William Boor
[Editor's Note: This was written up prior to the Braves pushing Max Fried's start back to Friday.]
I love both these pitchers, but Atlanta's offense tips the scales toward the Braves as I look at this specific matchup.
Fried is one of the best pitchers in baseball and although his 0.45 ERA isn't sustainable, his 1.82 xERA shows he's been dominant throughout the early stages of the 2023 season. Fried hasn't allowed a run in three straight starts and is coming off a seven-strikeout, one-walk performance against the Mets.
The 29-year-old lefty ranks in the 94th percentile or better in xERA/xwOBA, average exit velocity, Hard Hit %, barrel %, walk rate and chase rate.
Fried has had everything working this season and there's no reason to suspect a Miami offense averaging 3.3 runs per game (29th in MLB) is going to reverse those trends.
Additionally, Fried is backed by an Atlanta offense averaging 5.2 runs per game, which ranks eighth in baseball.
Yes, Jesus Luzardo has fared well this season with a 3.48 ERA and a 3.73 xERA, but he'll have minimal margin for error as Miami is unlikely to do much against Fried. The under on this game is certainly intriguing, but I'm going to back the Braves instead because Atlanta is more than capable of quickly putting up a crooked number once Luzardo exits the game.
Pick: Braves Moneyline |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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