Promotion Banner

MLB Odds, Picks, Previews, Predictions: Our Best Bets for Marlins vs. Dodgers & Padres vs. Giants (Monday, August 29)

MLB Odds, Picks, Previews, Predictions: Our Best Bets for Marlins vs. Dodgers & Padres vs. Giants (Monday, August 29) article feature image
Credit:

Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images. Pictured: Manny Machado #13 of the San Diego Padres.

  • Our Action MLB analysts are kicking off the week with two bets for Monday's eight-game slate.
  • Our crew sees value in a team total for Dodgers vs. Marlins and a First 5 bet in Padres vs. Giants.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of our best bets from tonight's Major League Baseball slate.

Monday night’s baseball slate brings us just eight games, but our analysts have their eyes on two matchups headlined by contenders out of the National League West.

They see value in Marlins vs. Dodgers and Padres vs. Giants and have two corresponding bets for each game. Check out their best bets for Monday night below.

The must-have app for MLB bettors

The best MLB betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

MLB Odds & Picks

Click on a game to skip ahead
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
6:40 p.m. ET
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
9:45 p.m. ET

Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Pick
Dodgers Over 4.5 (-105)
Book
DraftKings
Pitchers
Tony Gonsolin vs. Pablo Lopez
First Pitch
6:40 p.m. ET

DJ James: Pablo López has been a solid pitcher for the Marlins this season, but after the All-Star Break, he owns a 6.00 ERA. This does not bode well as he heads into a matchup with the second-best offense against righties in August, the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers have a 145 wRC+ this month, only trailing the St. Louis Cardinals. They are slugging .528 as a unit.

López allows an Average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH, so this is slightly better than average. They have seven batters above a .330 xwOBA. The rest of the lineup is over .300, which means they will piece together a strong plate appearance occasionally.

Now, López also has a 5.06 ERA in August alone. He has only seen a dominant outing against the Oakland A’s, so the Dodgers are a completely different lineup.

In addition, the Marlins have a relatively weak bullpen. This month, they have a team xFIP of 4.25, ranking 22nd in the MLB. After López leaves this game early, they will have to eat innings. The Dodgers will manage to score off of those relievers.

Take the Dodgers’ team total over 4.5 (-105), and play it to 5 (-130).

BetSync with DraftKings for easy bet tracking!

All your bets tracked … automatically!

View your bet win probability

AZ, CO, CT, IA, IN, IL, LA, MI, NH, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY


» Return to the table of contents «


San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants

Pick
Giants F5 (-134)
Book
FanDuel
Pitchers
Mike Clevinger vs. Carlos Rodon
First Pitch
9:45 p.m. ET

Brad Cunningham: Carlos Rodon has been outstanding in his first season in San Francisco. The lefty has a 2.71 xERA, 2.99 xFIP, 11.55 K/9 rate, and opposing hitters only have a .256 xwOBA against him.

He’ll have a great matchup against a Padres lineup that not only has struggled versus left-handed pitching this season (.310 wOBA, 16th in MLB), but they also have a combined -4.9 run value against fastballs and sliders, which are basically the only two pitches Rodon throws.

Mike Clevinger has been very average this year. His xERA is at 4.07, his xFIP is at 4.47, and opposing hitters have a .313 xwOBA against him. He does a great job mixing his pitches with a five pitch arsenal of fastball, slider, cutter, sinker, and changeup going to each pitch over 10% of the time. The problem is he goes to his fastball over 35% of the time and that is a pitch the Giants have a +35.9 run value against this season.

I have Rodon and the Giants projected at -198 for the first five innings, so I love the value on them at -134 and would play it up to -170.


» Return to the table of contents «


How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.