Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Nick Martin has that job for Tuesday, September 1.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Braves vs Nationals Both Teams to Score 4+ Runs +115 (bet365, Play to +110)
- Cardinals F5 Moneyline +130 (DraftKings, Play to +125)
Braves vs Nationals Pick
AJ Smith-Shawver will get another opportunity to start Tuesday as the Braves stick with their plan of pivoting to a six-man rotation for the stretch run. In a small sample of 13 2/3 innings, Smith-Shawver has been highly ineffective in pitching to a 4.95 xERA and 5.58 xFIP.
While Smith-Shawver's 2025 results and 101 Stuff+ rating suggest he will likely be closer to a league average starter moving forward, he is facing a tough spot versus a potent Nationals lineup and a forecast calling for favorable batting conditions at Nationals Park.
Since July 1st, the Nationals hold a wRC+ of 111 versus right-handed pitching and hold a league-leading 0.52 BB/K ratio while ranking 11th in pull percentage and 10th in line-drive percentage.
Jake Irvin has been among the league's worst starters to work at least 80 innings this season. His surface-level statistics are far from convincing (5.62 ERA, 1.40 WHIP), while he ranks in the sixth percentile in hard-hit rate, fifth percentile in barrel-rate, and holds an xERA of 5.31.
The Braves hold a wRC+ of 102 versus right-handed pitching over the last two months and should be capable of generating some quality contact against Irvin, particularly with the ball expected to carry in what is already a hitter-friendly venue.
If Atlanta is unable to do much against Irvin, however, it should still have a strong opportunity to do damage against one of the league's worst bullpens, which has been a major factor in Washington slipping to eight games below .500.
PICK: Both Teams to Score 4+ Runs +115 (bet365, Play to +110)
Cardinals vs Dodgers Pick
After a brief period of improved results when he initially joined the Dodgers, Eric Lauer has been far from effective of late in pitching to an ERA of 4.65 with an xFIP of 5.29 throughout his last 40 2/3 innings of work. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 89 in that span, and has allowed a zone contact rate of 88.8%.
Since June 1st, the Cardinals hold a wRC+ of 101 versus left-handed pitching and own the third-lowest strikeout rate in baseball. They have been even more potent versus lefties of late, posting a 115 wRC+ against southpaws over the last 30 days while ranking eighth in hard-hit rate and seventh in BB/K ratio.
Michael McGreevy has pitched to an ERA of 4.58 throughout his last 59 innings, with an xFIP of 4.36 and a Pitching+ rating of 96. He was torched in his most recent start versus the Orioles, but there still seems to be a fairly sound case for preferring him over Lauer.
Obviously, on paper, the Dodgers lineup should be expected to trend toward better results as the playoffs draw closer, but over what has become a fairly large sample, Los Angeles has not hit right-handed pitching effectively.
Over the last two months, the Dodgers hold a wRC+ of just 89 versus righties and rank 16th in expected wOBA, and perhaps a level of complacency has crept into the team.
PICK: Cardinals F5 Moneyline +130 (DraftKings, Play to +125)
Martin's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, September 1
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Braves vs Nationals Both Teams to Score 4+ Runs +115 (bet365, Play to +110)
- Cardinals F5 Moneyline +130 (DraftKings, Play to +125)
