MLB Picks Today | Our Expert Bets on Mets vs Braves, White Sox vs Padres (Friday, September 30)
Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images. Pictured: Yu Darvish.
One week from today we will be talking about the first playoff games of the season.
But much is to be settled between now and then. Specifically, the NL East race between the Mets and Braves, as well as an NL wild-card spot between the Brewers and Phillies.
Those former two teams begin a crucial series in Atlanta tonight with a stellar pitching matchup of Jacob deGrom vs. Max Fried. Whoever wins tonight will have the upper-hand to clinch that spot and a first-round bye in the new MLB postseason format.
And we have a bet recommendation to make on that game, too! One of our experts is picking a side on that huge matchup, and another sees big-time value in tonight's game between the flailing White Sox and playoff-bound Padres.
Here are our best bets from Friday's Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Mets vs. Braves
Charlie DiSturco: It’s the day before October but boy does Friday night’s matchup between the Mets and Braves have that ~postseason pizzazz~ feeling.
It doesn’t get much better than this. Jacob deGrom and Max Fried in Game 1, the National League East crown still up for grabs between two heavyweights and World Series contenders. This is about as cheap you’ll get deGrom and to me, it’s a must-bet on New York.
Don’t be alarmed from deGrom’s struggles the last three starts. His xERA sits at 2.03 — nearly a run lower than his actual ERA — and opponents have just a .178 xBA, .301 xSLG and sub-30 hard-hit rate.
And he’s backed by one of the hotter offenses in baseball. Over the last 14 days, the Mets are third in wRC+ and fifth in wOBA. While they don’t hit for power often, they don’t strike out and are pests at the plate, forcing high pitch counts and earlier exits.
Fried lines up opposite deGrom, and he’s been great once again atop the Atlanta rotation. His xERA sits at 2.90 and he ranks in the 93rd percentile in barrel rate. He ranks around league average in strikeout rate, which plays perfectly into the Mets' offensive strengths.
The southpaw has thrown against New York four times and has a 3.00 ERA over 24 innings (10 runs, eight earned).
In what should be the game of the night, runs should be at a premium. That favors the Mets who have the edge both behind deGrom and at the plate over the last few weeks.
White Sox vs. Padres
Jules Posner: Davis Martin has had a relatively soft road schedule in 2022. In his six road starts, he's gotten the Kansas City Royals twice and the Detroit Tigers twice as well. Even though the Padres' offense is in a little bit of a home funk against RHP they are due for positive regression.
Although Yu Darvish hasn't been lights-out at home as of late, he hasn't given up more than three earned runs in any home start this season. He'll be taking on a team that has not been walking much on the road vs RHP over the past couple of weeks and that should be advantageous for Darvish, who can nibble at times.
Additionally, the Padres are still looking to clinch a postseason berth as the season winds down, so they have a lot to play for on Friday night.
Their run line opened in plus money and has moved down from +105 to +100 overnight. Therefore, there seems to be some line movement favoring them this evening.
There are a lot of good indicators for the Padres to cover tonight and the run line should be played to -110.
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