Very few pitchers have seen a bigger shift in performance from the first half to the second half than Pirates ace Paul Skenes and Brewers starter Kyle Harrison.
With both taking the ball on Sunday. I decided to focus this player props piece on them.
Check out my favorite MLB player prop picks today for Sunday, September 6.
MLB Player Props Today
- Paul Skenes Under 6.5 Strikeouts (59 cents, Kalshi)
- Kyle Harrison Over 2.5 Earned Runs (99 cents, Kalshi)
Angels vs Pirates Player Prop
If you told me in May that I would be ecstatic to fade Paul Skenes’ strikeout prop against the lowly Angels, I would think you were lying.
It just feels like the Pirates ace is searching for whatever works. His velocity is back up, but he went 4 2/3 innings and gave up five runs against the Giants on Tuesday. Just one start prior, Skenes went with a sinker-heavy approach, leading to just four strikeouts against the Padres.
He hasn't tossed more than five strikeouts in any of his past five outings.
Now, this is purely speculation on my end, but I think it's worth watching. With the Pirates close to fully out of contention for the third wild card, how much will Pittsburgh push Skenes?
He's pitched fewer than six innings in eight of his last 11 starts. With little at stake, it would be wise to play things safe with Skenes.
From an Angels standpoint, there isn't a really convincing angle on their end. Since August 1st, they rank second in MLB with a 25% strikeout rate. On Saturday, the Halos struck out against Braxton Ashcraft nine times. I'd guess the Angels' high strikeout rate is part of why Skenes's strikeout prop is so high.
Even so, I can't justify Skenes having a strikeout total like a top-tier pitcher when he's been anything but a top-tier pitcher for 2+ months.
Pick: Paul Skenes Under 6.5 Strikeouts (59 cents, Kalshi)
Brewers vs Reds Player Prop
For our final prop, let's stay in the NL Central, where I'll fade Brewers starter Kyle Harrison against the Cincinnati Reds.
It's been a real renaissance for Harrison, who came to Milwaukee in a buy-low move from the Red Sox. He had a pristine 1.57 ERA over his first 10 starts, but just 12 starts later, his ERA sits at 3.45.
So, what's been the main problem for Harrison? One is that he just hasn't been quite as sharp since returning from injury.
The other is pitching on the road — and that's why I want over his 2.5 earned run prop in Cincinnati. Harrison has made 22 starts this year — 11 at home and 11 on the road. His ERA on the road is a brutal 5.94 with a 5.99 FIP and 4.29 xFIP.
The FIP isn't fond of Harrison on the road due to his insane 2.70 HR/9, a number boosted by two tough outings: one in Vegas against the A's and his last outing against the Cubs.
A few key factors led to my pick of Harrison giving up at least three earned runs. He's pitching in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league. People don't jokingly call it the "Great American Small Park" for nothing. And he gave up 3+ runs in four of his past five road starts.
When a sample is 11 starts, it's less of a small-sample issue and more of a trend, and I'll look to capitalize on Harrison's unsavory trend.
Give me the plus money on Harrison's road woes to continue.
Pick: Kyle Harrison Over 2.5 Earned Runs (99 cents, Kalshi)
