MLB Player Props Tuesday: 3 Bets for Elly De La Cruz, Aaron Judge & Clarke Schmidt (May 21)
Mike Stobe/Getty Images. Pictured: Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge.
We have a full MLB slate on Tuesday, May 21.
I'll be backing a pair of Yankees in Aaron Judge and Clarke Schmidt, as New York looks to even the series in the Bronx. But first, let's begin in Cincinnati, where Elly De La Cruz may be off and running again.
So, without further ado, let's dive into our MLB player props for Tuesday, May 21, featuring bets for Judge, Schmidt and De La Cruz.
MLB Player Prop Picks for Tuesday, May 21
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:40 p.m. | |
| 7:05 p.m. | |
| 7:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Padres vs. Reds
In the first game of the Reds' four-game series against the Dodgers, Elly De La Cruz went 4-for-4. He needed only two of those hits to steal four bases, as he took second and third base twice each.
De La Cruz now has 30 stolen bases — 12 more than any other player in Major League Baseball.
Unfortunately for the Reds, De La Cruz didn't collect a hit in the final three games of the series as Cincinnati lost all three.
I think he changes his luck tonight against Joe Musgrove. It hasn't been a great start to the season for Musgrove, as he enters this start with a 6.37 ERA, 39.5% hard-hit percentage and 3.04 xBA.
Musgrove has been one of the NL's best starters over the last 2.5 years, and he was starting to regain that form after striking out nine of these Reds on May 1. However, that start also landed him on the IL.
De La Cruz enters tonight's game with an .897 OPS against right-handed pitchers and has been batting second of late. If he gets on early, he may look to run with Musgrove getting settled in coming off the IL.
De La Cruz is also 1-for-3 with a double against Musgrove. It's easier to steal second base, but the Reds speedster has no qualms about trying for third as well. I expect him to have four or five opportunities to get on and steal tonight.
Pick: Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+118)
Mariners vs. Yankees
Aaron Judge strained his oblique in spring training, and as a result, took in only 30 at-bats. That lack of preseason work may have contributed to his slow start.
However, you'd never know that he started poorly at all given what he's done this month.
In May, Judge is hitting .393 with 10 doubles, seven home runs, 14 runs batted in and a 1.427 OPS. Over the past week alone, he has five doubles, three home runs and a .500 batting average, earning Judge AL Player of the Week honors.
Last night, Judge had a difficult matchup against Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert. Still, the hits kept coming, as the Bronx Bomber went 2-for-4 with a double. Both hits also came off a quality starting pitcher in Gilbert.
Judge now has an eight-game hitting streak, and he has recorded two total bases in six of those. Plus, one of the misses came when he was walked three times against the White Sox.
Judge has also recorded at least two total bases in six of his last nine games against the Mariners, which is quite the accomplishment considering the pitching staff they've assembled.
Tonight's starter is Bryan Woo, who has allowed just one run in 9 2/3 innings through his first two starts this season. However, Woo allowed 13 home runs in 87 2/3 innings last season.
Considering the tear he's been on, I have a feeling Judge takes Woo deep tonight on a warm evening at Yankee Stadium.
He's +235 on DraftKings to homer tonight, but he's still at plus-money if it's a simple double instead.
Pick: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Clarke Schmidt would certainly enjoy seeing a Judge home run to give him some run support. However, he hasn't needed much of that support, as he enters this start with 14 2/3 scoreless innings over his last two starts.
He has 14 strikeouts in that span, and going back further, he has seven strikeouts in four of his last seven starts. Plus, he finished with six in two of the misses.
While Schmidt is coming into this start on a high, he also has a great matchup tonight. The Mariners strike out at 28.9% rate against right-handed pitchers — the highest strikeout rate in MLB this season.
In fact, 10 of the last 11 right-handed starters they've faced have gone over their strikeout total. That includes New York's Marcus Stroman in the first game of this series.
Stroman needed 7 1/3 innings to reach six strikeouts, but he also has a strikeout rate of just 20.3% this season.
This matchup sets up better for Schmidt, considering he has a 27% strikeout rate that puts him in the 76th percentile of qualified pitchers. Schmidt may also be able to work deep into this game like Stroman last night.
Schmidt had previously struggled when facing a lineup the third time through the order. However, he has pitched into the seventh in each of his last two outings. If he completes six innings tonight, I like his chances of racking up seven strikeouts.
If he goes further, I also like him to up to nine strikeouts, which sits at +310 at FanDuel tonight.
Pick: Clarke Schmidt Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-116)
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