MLB Playoff Odds, Picks 10/9/22 for Padres vs Mets

MLB Playoff Odds, Picks 10/9/22 for Padres vs Mets article feature image

Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: Francisco Lindor

Wild Card Weekend wraps up on Sunday night with the only Game 3 among the four Wild Card Round series'.

The New YorkMets put on an offensive show behind Jacob deGrom on Saturday night, evening the series at a game apiece and forcing tonight's winner-take-all matchup. The winner has a date with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS starting Tuesday.

Padres vs. Mets Game 3 Odds

Padres Odds+120
Mets Odds-140
Time7:07 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

New York is favored at home with Chris Bassitt on the mound, while the underdog Padres will look to advance behind Joe Musgrove.

Here are our best bets from tonight's Game 3 between the Padres and Mets.

MLB Odds & Picks For Padres vs. Mets Game 2

Click on a pick to skip ahead
Over 6.5
Joe Musgrove Strikeouts

Over 6.5 (-115)

Odds via FanDuel

Nicholas Martin: Both teams have narratives at play suggesting we could see some runs come across in this contest, and consequently, a total of 6.5 is a half-run low. The strong offenses for both teams should have the edge against two solid but not elite starters, especially Chris Bassitt.

Joe Musgrove faces a tough matchup himself versus the Mets offense that thrives on right-handed pitching. Expect New York to scrap some runs together off of Musgrove before getting into a bullpen which has offered some shakiness.

The Padres offense should also show signs of life against Bassitt on Sunday in a better matchup with his minimal fastball usage.

San Diego as a slight underdog may be a trendy play considering Musgrove’s perceived edge over Bassitt, but I could see New York’s lineup coming out hot and building on last night’s performance, which scares me.

Instead, I’ll back both lineups against the starters by playing the over at 6.5 with value down to -125.

Joe Musgrove Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-109)

Odds via BetRivers

Doug Ziefel: The Padres are a postseason team because of thier pitching, and the depth of it is impressive when you consider that Joe Musgrove is thier third starter for this series. Musgrove had a fabulous 2022 regular season as he held a 2.93 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. A big part of his success this season was his ability to pile up strikeouts, as he averaged over a strikeout per inning.

While this may not be the greatest of matchups, as the Mets have one of the lowest team Strikeout Rates in the majors, this total is far too low to pass up. Furthermore, Musgrove has gone over this total in 70 percent of his starts this season, which gives us implied odds of -233 that he’ll go over again.

On top of the line value, Musgrove has compiled quite a bit of history against this Mets lineup. In a total of 94 at-bats, the Mets are hitting just .234 with a 26 percent Strikeout Rate. If Musgrove is on, he could fly over this total tonight.

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