MLB Predictions Tuesday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (May 7)

Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.

The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.

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Here are my favorite bets for Tuesday, May 7.

MLB Predictions Tuesday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (May 7)

Kenta Maeda (MIN) vs. Logan Allen (CLE)

Conditions should be favorable for hitters on Tuesday in Cleveland. It will be 72 degrees at first pitch, with 8-9 mph winds blowing out to right-center field.

Progressive Field typically plays about 6% below the league average run-scoring environment, but should play as much as 10% higher than an average park on Tuesday. I set the total at 9.1 runs.

Logan Allen (11.9% K-BB%) and Kenta Maeda (12.5% K-BB%) show reduced velocity, pitch modeling metrics and strikeout-minus-walk rates this season. Allen and Maeda posted K-BB% marks of 13.2% and 20.8%, respectively, in 2023 — both are now below the MLB average (13.8%).

Bet: Over 8.5 (-115 or better)

Jose Berrios (TOR) vs. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI)

Jose Berrios has been fortunate in 2024, carrying a 1.44 ERA against a 4.93 xERA (expected ERA), a 4.24 xFIP (expected FIP) and a 10.7% K-BB%, which is down more than 5% vs. his career average (16%) or 2023 results (16.9%). It's the second-worst strikeout rate (18.3%) of his career, alongside a corresponding decrease in swinging strike rate (8.6% vs. 11% in 2023 and 10.2% career).

Berrios has a miraculous .229 BABIP (.293 career) and 96.6% strand rate (73.3% career), both of which should regress toward his career norms or the league average (.287 and 71.5%, respectively).

Cristopher Sanchez remains underrated despite posting a 3.44 ERA, 3.74 xERA and 3.09 xFIP last season. He has a 3.68 ERA, 3.67 xERA and 3.36 xFIP in six starts to begin 2024. I expect the southpaw to continue to pitch toward the more optimistic end of his projected FIP range (3.73 to 4.10).

Philadelphia also has the better bullpen (7th in xFIP, 7th in K-BB% and 7th in Stuff+) compared to Toronto (27th, 25th and 13th, respectively).

While they have the best record in baseball, the Phillies have only played one series against a team (Atlanta) currently above .500.

Bets: Phillies F5 Moneyline (-130 or better) | Phillies Full-Game Moneyline (-131 or better) 

Zac Gallen (ARI) vs. Frankie Montas (CIN)

Great American Ball Park typically plays close to 15% above a league average run-scoring environment and should see solid hitting weather on Tuesday evening (77 degrees at first pitch with a 10 mph cross breeze). I set the total at 9.6 runs.

I have noted Zac Gallen's declining stuff (fastball velocity down one tick, Stuff+ down from 106 to 94 year-over-year) throughout this season. Still, he's continued to pitch well and maintain a 3.98 xERA (4.16 in 2023) and a 19.5% K-BB% — in line with his career average.

Frankie Montas returns from an IL stint for forearm discomfort — usually a precursor for Tommy John surgery. Montas started the year strong but struggled in his most recent outings — his fastball velocity dropped from 94.2 mph in the opener to 92.8 mph in his last start — and he's likely less than 100%.

Montas missed the start of the 2023 season with inflammation, which eventually evolved into season-ending surgery. He signed a one-year guaranteed deal with Cincinnati with a mutual option for 2025.

Montas has significant blow-up potential in this start; he hasn't pitched more than two innings since April 15 or competed in a game against since April 21 (no rehab stint), and his last two MLB efforts (combined 2 2/3 IP, 3 H, 5 R, 6 BB, 1 K) were messy.

Bet: Over 9 (-114 or better)

Patrick Sandoval (LAA) vs. Quinn Priester (PIT)

Like Monday's matchup in Pittsburgh, I have downgraded the Angels starter and upgraded the Pirates starter, and I still show value on the Buccos.

Patrick Sandoval has pitched much better than his 5.91 ERA might indicate (3.86 xERA, 3.68 xFIP). He has seen both his strikeout rate (25.7%) and K-BB% (14.9%) bounce back this season after a down 2023 (19.6% K%, 8.3% K-BB%, 4.70 xERA, 4.61 xFIP). Both his velocity and pitch modeling metrics have also improved — his 2023 season looks like a clear outlier.

Conversely, Quinn Priester's strikeouts aren't coming in the Majors (15.4% K% over 13 appearances) as they have in the Minors (26.2% career in Triple-A), and the pitch modeling metrics (91 Stuff+, 99 Location+) don't show a ton of upside for the former first-round pick. His sinker and slider grade out well, but his curveball and four-seamer are below MLB average, and he struggles with command.

Before the season, I would have made Sandoval the superior arm by about 11 points on a season-long ERA projection — for Tuesday, I'd set the differential closer to seven-tenths of a run. Still, the Pirates have enough of a bullpen edge to project a 15-cent difference between their F5 (first five innings) and full-game moneyline projections at -120 and -135, respectively.

Bet: Pirates Full-Game Moneyline (-125 or better)

Kutter Crawford (BOS) vs. Reynaldo Lopez (ATL)

Truist Park typically plays a couple of percentage points about a league-average park, and while temperatures will be warm on Tuesday in Atlanta (83 degrees at first pitch), the wind will be blowing in from right field.

I set this total around 8.5.

Kutter Crawford has dialed back his four-seam fastball usage (29.3%, down from 39% in 2023) — like Boston's entire pitching staff — in favor of more sweepers (24.5%, up from 12.7% in 2023), and he's added a splitter (8% usage rate) to his mix, too.

Both Crawford's underlying indicators (2.93 xERA, 3.91 xFIP) and pitch modeling metrics (108 Stuff+) have improved compared to last season (3.25 xERA, 4.32 xFIP, 105 Stuff+), even though his K-BB% is 2.5% worse.

Comparatively, Reynaldo Lopez is showing improved indicators (3.23 xERA, 3.58 xFIP) since moving from the bullpen to the Braves rotation despite an anticipated decline in both average velocity (fastball down 3.1 mph) and Stuff+ ratings while managing his energy across a more significant workload of pitches.

Atlanta's offense is in a funk, ranking 27th with a 68 wRC+ over the past two weeks. The Braves are too good to be this bad, but Boston may be catching them at the right time.

Bet: Under 9 (-110 or better)

Colin Rea (MIL) vs. Seth Lugo (KCR)

Although Milwaukee's bullpen ultimately blew a two-run lead on Monday, it remains the vastly superior unit in this series, ranking league average or better by xFIP, K-BB% and Stuff+. In contrast, the Royals bullpen ranks in the bottom three in each of those statistical indicators.

Like Monday, Kansas City has the starting pitching advantage with Seth Lugo (4.16 xERA, 4.22 xFIP, 11.4% K-BB%) facing Colin Rea (5.50 xERA, 4.60 xFIP, 8.3% K-BB%). Additionally, I don't project quite as big of a bullpen gap between these bullpens for Tuesday (0.7 runs on a projected ERA) as I did for Monday (0.9 runs), yet I still show an edge on the Brewers moneyline.

Bet: Brewers Full-Game Moneyline (+110 or better)

Randy Vasquez (SDP) vs. Shota Imanaga (CHC)

Will Shota Imanaga finally get victimized by the Wrigley Field wind on Tuesday, with temperatures at 74 degrees and 7-8 mph gusts blowing out to center field?

Most of Imanaga's starts have featured strong-to-moderate winds blowing in, and he's only permitted two homers despite a near 46% fly-ball rate (4.8% HR/FB) He's been lucky in other ways too — with a .220 BABIP and a 90.5% strand rate — but undoubtedly great at the same time.

Imanaga's 2.76 xERA and 3.17 xFIP rank 13th and 23rd, respectively, among the 106 starters who have tossed at least 30 innings this season. He's 14th in K-BB% (23.5%) among the same group, and his four-year, $53 million contract (with additional player and club options) may be the best value signing of the 2023 offseason.

Pitching models view his stuff as league average — with plus command — but they miss the quality of his splitter (85 Stuff+), which has held opponents to a .193 xwOBA.

Those same models are high on Randy Vasquez (111 Stuff+), who has immense upside, having flashed up to five above-average offerings, if he can refine his command.

My adjustment for the wind and weather isn't as dramatic as I thought it might be. I set this total at 8.1 and would gladly take under 9.

Bet: Under 9 (bet to -125) or 8.5 (-106)

Kyle Harrison (SFG) vs. Dakota Hudson (COL)

I'm less concerned about Harrison's heavy fastball/changeup approach (combined 86.4% usage) at Coors Field than I would be with breaking-ball-oriented arms. His stuff and command should translate a bit better in the thin air.

Dakota Hudson has pitched about how I would have expected for the Rockies (5.93 ERA, 5.29 xERA, 5.04 xFIP). Since the start of the 2021 season, 235 starting pitchers have tossed at least 100 innings. Hudson ranks last among that group over that span, with a 2.7% K-BB%. He's the definition of a replacement-level arm.

I set the Giants as -162 first-half favorites.

Bet: Giants F5 Moneyline (-150 or better) 

Zerillo's Bets for Tuesday, May 7

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• Arizona Diamondbacks / Cincinnati Reds, Over 9 (+100, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -114)
• Boston Red Sox / Atlanta Braves, Under 9 (-105, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -110)
• Detroit Tigers / Cleveland Guardians, Over 8.5 (-105, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -115)
• Milwaukee Brewers (+114, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to +110)
• Philadelphia Phillies F5 (-125, 0.5u) at Parx (bet to -131)
• Philadelphia Phillies (-124, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to -130)
• Pittsbrugh Pirates (-120, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -125)
• San Diego Padres (+148, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to +140)
• San Diego Padres / Chicago Cubs, Under 9 (-120, 0.5u) at Parx (Bet to -125 or 8.5, -106)
• San Francisco Giants F5 (-148, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -150)
• Seattle Mariners / Minnesota Twins, Under 8.5 (-112, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to 8, -104)
• Texas Rangers / Oakland Athletics, Under 8.5 (-115, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -117)