NL Rookie of the Year Odds, Picks | Corbin Carroll Has Betting Value as Favorite

Futures bets aren’t for everyone. You have to stomach the fact that a certain amount of your bankroll is going to be tied up for 6-7 months before your potential payday.

For this upcoming MLB season, there is one futures bet I’m all over — Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll to win National League Rookie of the Year.

If you’re a prospect nerd or dynasty fantasy player, you already know this is hardly a crazy call.

Carroll, the 16th overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft, has been a fixture on top prospects lists since 2020 — and for good reason. With five tools and then some, Carroll raked at every level of the minors, and he probably would’ve made the big leagues sooner if he hadn’t suffered a season-ending posterior capsular avulsion and a labrum tear in his shoulder in 2021 — an injury he sustained while hitting a home run, which is kind of badass and almost makes losing a season of development worth it.

A number of publications (notably Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel) have Carroll as the No. 2 prospect in baseball. The Athletic’s Keith Law has him No. 1. Baseball Prospectus is the “lowest” on him, ranking Carroll No. 6.

Despite being the betting favorite for NL ROY, I see no reason to shy away from Carroll. I believe he’s about as close to a slam-dunk pick out of all the MLB futures markets.

All the Tools + Obsessed Baseball Person

In his minor-league career, Carroll has posted a .310/.426/.588 slash line with 28 home runs in 142 games. One of the fastest players in the game, Carroll also racked up 52 steals in 59 attempts (88%) and 77 of his 167 (46%) hits were of the extra-base variety.

The elite speed was evident in Carroll’s 32-game cup of coffee toward the end of last season. His sprint speed (SS) was in the 100th percentile, according to Statcast, and he actually led the majors with a SS of 30.7 feet/second. (Anything 30+ is considered elite.)

Basically, we have a player who makes a lot of contact, hits for more power than you’d expect from someone who’s 5-foot-8, 165 pounds (hello .240 ISO and 100 mph-plus exit velos), a racehorse on the bases and the field, and an unobstructed path to playing time. Both traditional and advanced-stat friendly. And he’s someone you actually want to watch.

In a 32-game cup of coffee in the majors last season, Carroll produced a .260/.330/.500 slash and 130 wRC+ with four homers, 14 RBIs and two steals. He accrued 1.4 fWAR and 1.2 bWAR. FanGraphs' 2023 ZiPS projections for Carroll peg him for a .253/.341/.428 line and 116 wRC+ and a 16-homer, 20-steal type of season, with a plus defensive projection that ultimately results in potentially 4.2 WAR. Looking at NL ZiPS for all position players, Carroll comes in at 25th — the only rookie in the top 30.

Just so we're not looking at the most bullish case, Steamer projections are much more mid — a milquetoast slash with a  104 wRC+ and 2.5 WAR.

Beyond all the tools and the flashy stats to go along with it, there’s one off-field thing I look for when I’m reading about prospects: positive personality traits. Basically every player in Top 100 lists has a highly rated aspect in their game — e.g., 80-grade fastball, Billy Hamilton speed, whatever — that could potentially make them the next big thing. The tools are everywhere, but not everyone translates. But when guys have snippets in their scouting reports about how they live in the batting cage or are generally just obsessed with the game, I eat that up.

With Carroll, we have both the tools and personality. After his callup last season, MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert had a fantastic tidbit about how Carroll remained motivated after tearing up his shoulder. He used VR equipment to stay sharp and watched D'backs games at Chase Field with an advanced scout to analyze play.

Apparently he was also pissed off about being a late selection for Team USA and colleges shying away from him because he’s short. Lots of naysayers to prove wrong. Another green flag — can’t help but love a chip on the shoulder.

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Carroll's Competition

I believe Carroll is him, but he’s far from the only blue-chip prospect available to bet on for NL ROY. Notably, Elly De La Cruz, Jordan Walker , Francisco Alvarez, Eury Pérez and Andrew Painter stand out as top-20 prospects (at pretty much every publication) and aren't too far away.

The first two are the ones who stand out.

In case you’re not aware of De La Cruz, he’s a 6-foot-5 (not quite Oneill Cruz, but close) switch-hitter who swats a lot of dingers, plays a competent shortstop, steals a bunch of bases and strikes out a bunch. But he’s so fun the strikeouts aren’t a killer to the experience … at least not yet.

He has 37 homers and 60 steals in 224 games over three minor-league seasons. In 47 games at Double-A, he slashed .305/.357/.553 with eight homers, 17 doubles, three triples and 19 steals. His strikeout rate exceeded 30% — this is his one major flaw.

He’s also only 20 years old. And like Carroll, there are positive off-field reports about him, like this one from Baseball America: “His intelligence, focus and determination draw nearly as many raves as his tools.”

Just putting it out there … Fernando Tatis Jr. forced his way onto the Padres’ roster in 2019, and his spring numbers weren’t all that impressive, but he passed the eye test and the San Diego had no choice but to give him a spot.

One issue, however, is that we’re also talking about a Reds player. They’re cheap as hell and the fans have no choice — president Phil Castellini’s words, not mine — so Cincy could also do that fun thing of holding a touted player down for “development” and totally not service-time manipulation.

Walker intrigues because his bat might be major-league ready. He’s topped out at Double-A thus far and owns a .310/.388/.525 slash in two minor-league seasons. Unlike De La Cruz, he’s touted for having a strong approach at the plate. If you’re a fan of velocity, Walker is your guy — registering crazy elite exit velos is part of the experience.

Offense isn’t really the question with him — it’s the other side of the ball, where he’s moving off third base to a corner-outfield spot. Such is life when Nolan Arenado sits atop the third base org depth chart. Despite the positional question mark, to which evaluators think Walker will be able to make the transition just fine, he could be another strong challenger to Carroll if he gets the call early enough.

On the right day, I could talk myself into a pitcher winner. This is not that day. I might do it for Grayson Rodriguez in the American League.

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Diamondbacks Could Have Bite

This is an individual award but this additional narrative could be in play and a potential boost to Carroll’s candidacy.

The D'backs have been dreadful for the past couple seasons. They won 74 games last year (4th in NL West), 52 in 2021 (5th) and 25 in the shortened ‘20 season (5th). As someone who worked at MLB for the past three seasons and had to bear witness to Snakes games, the best thing I can say is the games I watched seemed to end really fast. Zac Gallen was hurt a lot. I questioned David Peralta's nickname ("Freight Train"). I thought Caleb Smith and Luke Weaver were interesting for a while. This was Arizona baseball to me.

But things are changing. They have a lot of up-and-coming talent (top-four farm system in baseball); Carroll is the most popular name right now, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention fellow touted outfielder Alek Thomas, newly acquired catcher Gabriel Moreno and pitchers Drey Jameson, Ryne Nelson and Brandon Pfaadt. If everything goes according to plan, Jordan Lawlar and eventually Druw Jones will be on future NL ROY oddsboards.

And the rotation isn’t just a bunch of young guys. Gallen shoved (2.54 ERA; 3.05 FIP; 3.17 xERA) and threw a career-high 184 innings while doing it last season. Veterans Merrill Kelly and Madison Bumgarner round it out, with the former delivering a 3.37 ERA and 200 ⅓ innings and the latter having veteran presence or whatever.

The D'backs also took a flyer on former AL Rookie of the Year Award winner Kyle Lewis, trading catcher Cooper Hummel to Seattle. He’s struggled with both injuries and strikeouts since his breakout in 2020. He’ll be in the mix for outfield/DH playing time alongside Carroll, Thomas, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (sneaky pickup who was acquired with Moreno) and former All-Star Ketel Marte. Like the rotation, a fun mix of young talent and veterans.

Speaking of vets, Evan Longoria signed with this team in free agency. He's not at all washed — wRC+ of 122 and 115 his last two seasons — but gets hurt like every other week. But 60-80 games of that isn't nothing.

The line for the D'backs’ win total currently sits around 74.5. They won 74 last season with a significantly less fun roster. Pretty sure this is an easy over bet.

Even if the Diamondbacks don't make noise, Carroll's talent might be too good to ignore. If they're contending for a wild-card spot late in the season? It's his to lose.

Carroll is the NL ROY favorite at most shops. The best odds you can find as of this writing is at Caesars (+400), but he's +380 at DraftKings and +350 at FanDuel, PointsBet and others. Even as the favorite, there's value to be found. He's that good, and these odds are only going to fall further out of favor.

Pick: Corbin Carroll NL Rookie of the Year

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