The Boston Red Sox host the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 29, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
Pirates ace Paul Skenes will keep building his case for the NL Cy Young award, while Payton Tolle, the Red Sox's top pitching prospect, will make his major league debut.
Find my MLB betting preview and Pirates vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Pirates vs Red Sox Prediction
- Pirates vs Red Sox pick: Under 8 (-115)
My Pirates vs Red Sox best bet is Under 8 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Red Sox Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 8 -105o / -115u | -105 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8 -105o / -115u | -115 |
Pirates vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Paul Skenes (PIT) | Stat | LHP Payton Tolle (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-9 | W-L | (MLB debut) |
| 5.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | |
| 2.07 / 2.55 | ERA / xERA | |
| 2.40 / 3.09 | FIP / xFIP | |
| 0.94 | WHIP | |
| 22.9 | K-BB% | |
| 43.4 | GB% | |
| 107 | Stuff+ | |
| 111 | Location+ |
Pirates vs Red Sox Preview
Any game starting Paul Skenes is a candidate for the under. The NL Cy Young favorite is coming off a stellar performance against the Rockies, pitching seven scoreless innings and giving up only three hits while striking out seven batters.
Skenes has a 2.00 ERA in his last 15 starts and will catch the Red Sox at a low point.
Boston has scored just 17 runs in their last five games for a 3.4 average. While they rank 12th in wRC+ for the season with a 103 rating, the Red Sox are 18th this month with 97.
While Skenes, the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year, is already a star, his opponent on the mound is a promise like he once was.
Payton Tolle, the best pitching prospect in the Boston organization and ranked 28th in MLB's pipeline, will make his major league debut tonight.
This is an ideal opportunity for the rookie left-hander as the Pirates are one of the worst offenses in baseball, ranking 29th in wRC+ this season, with an 83 rating, and dead last in slugging (.352) and ISO (.118).
This aligns with our Bet Labs recommendation to go with the under.
This system in MLB targets evening games where public interest in the over is muted, recent home team scoring has run slightly hot, and subtle environmental signals align with lower-scoring outcomes.
Games start between 7:00 and 11:59 PM ET, and the market over percentage sits below 50, suggesting minimal public pressure on inflated totals.
The home team has hit the over in just 20 to 67 of its last five games, and their previous outing landed modestly over the total by only 1.5 to 9 runs —indicators of recent scoring that may overstate offensive strength.
Meanwhile, the wind direction — whether blowing in, across the field, or neutral — paired with moderate temperatures between 26 and 74, introduces natural resistance to run scoring.
The home team is competitively priced on the moneyline and has a wide win rate window, providing no clear power imbalance that might inflate totals.
When layered together, these filters isolate a soft edge in a game environment where bettors overlook the under due to recency bias and lack of extreme public conviction.
Pick: Under 8 (-115, BetMGM)
Pirates vs Red Sox Betting Trends
