Alonzo Menifield vs. Ed Herman Odds, Pick & Prediction: Who Wins UFC 265 Light Heavyweight Fight? (Saturday, Aug. 7)

Alonzo Menifield vs. Ed Herman Odds, Pick & Prediction: Who Wins UFC 265 Light Heavyweight Fight? (Saturday, Aug. 7) article feature image

Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Alonzo Menifield (left) and Ed Herman (right).

  • The hard-hitting Alonzo Menifield takes on UFC veteran Ed Herman on Saturday night.
  • Menifield has some of the most power in the light-heavyweight division, although Herman has won three straight fights.
  • Sean Zerillo breaks down the UFC 265 prelim and delivers his pick for the fight below.

Alonzo Menifield vs. Ed Herman Odds

Menifield Odds
Herman Odds
2.5 (+185 / -225)
Toyota Center
9:30 p.m. ET
Odds as of Friday night and via BetMGM.

UFC veteran Ed Herman goes for his fourth straight win against the dangerous Alonzo Menifield on Saturday night in the second prelim at UFC 265 in Houston.

Herman lost five of eight fights between January 2013 and October 2018, including three straight. The 40-year-old bounced back with a pair of wins in 2019 and submitting Mike Rodriguez last September. He has finished 21 of his 26 career wins, which makes for a great matchup with Menifield.

The 33-year-old Menifield packs a huge punch, having won his first three UFC bouts via KO/TKO. After losing to Devin Clark and Ovince Saint Preux, he bounced back with a crazy von flue choke at UFC 260 in March.

Let’s break down this matchup that promises to have some fireworks.

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Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time4:479:14
Weight (pounds)204.5 lbs.205.5 lbs.
Reach (inches)76"77"
Date of birth10/18/8710/2/80
Sig Strikes Per Min3.313.32
SS Accuracy48%49%
SS Absorbed Per Min3.603.35
SS Defense46%43%
Take Down Avg0.392.21
TD Acc14%48%
TD Def85%60%
Submission Avg0.41.2

Menifield fights are fairly easy to handicap. He has about three to five minutes of cardio in his system before falling off of a cliff.

He’s been extended past the first minute of round two twice and lost both fights — a decision against Devin Clark last June and knockout loss to Ovince St. Preux last September.

Menifield returned with a quick finish over a short-notice and undersized replacement in Fabio Cherant in March and remains priced about the same here against 25-fight UFC veteran Ed Herman, who is on a three-fight winning streak.

Herman’s last win came with quite a bit of controversy. He was dropped with a knee to the body, which was deemed a groin strike, and ultimately finished his opponent after being given time to recover.

Still, prime Ed Herman would walk through Alonzo Menifield, and the 40-year-old version is capable of beating him.

Menifield is good for one early rush, where he fires straight shots down the pipe and fights his way into the clinch, but Herman should have an advantage in close positions.

“Short Fuse” is remarkably slow at this point of his career, but he remains durable and has a wealth of fight experience (42 pro fights) relative to his opponent (12).

Menifield vs. Herman Pick

Menifield to win in Round 1 (+130) is the only way to play the chalk side of this fight, but there’s no value on that side.

I projected Herman as a 38% underdog, and I think there’s value on his moneyline down to +180.

I also show value on Herman to win inside the distance (projected +378), and he makes a fantastic live bet after Menifield’s round of gas expires.

To go a step further, you could take a shot on Herman to win in Round 2 (+1100) or Round 3 (+1800) as a gassed-out Menifield tries to survive.

The Picks

  • Ed Herman (+200, 0.5u)
  • Ed Herman Live after Round 1

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