Bruno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan will face off in the UFC 313 prelims on Saturday, March 8.
Here's my Ferreira vs. Petrosyan prediction.
Bruno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan Odds, Prediction
| Middleweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Petrosyan Odds | -135 |
| Ferreira Odds | +114 |
| Over/under rounds | 2.5 (+130 / -166) |
Projection: Armen Petrosyan (61.8%)
Brunno Ferreira is a popular underdog selection this week; the public data I use to create my projections had Ferreira at 65% on average across the samples.
Armen Petrosyan is the more natural middleweight (4" taller, 1" reach advantage) and also the more technical striker (+3.0 to +0.6 strike differential per minute) with better cardio – and I favor him heavily to win any extended contest.
Ferreira is likely drawing dead to a knockout in this fight, and Petrosyan should offer more output down the stretch, potentially finding a late finish.
Brunno has rare power that carries late into fights – but I don't trust his durability (after getting rocked three times in the UFC, including a knockout) – or his gas tank. Ferreira slows because he throws max effort into every technique – including takedowns – and I doubt he can hold Petrosyan down for an extended period of time.
Bet Petrosyan pre-fight to -150 (projected -162) and add more Live at a better number after Round 1.
I also show slight value on the fight to reach a decision (projected +142, listed +175 – compared to the middleweight average of 38% (+170 implied odds), with correlated value on Petrosyan to win by decision (projected +184, listed +270).
Bets
- Armen Petrosyan (-135, 0.5u) at DraftKings; bet to -150
- Armen Petrosyan Live after Round 1
