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UFC Fight Night Main Event Odds, Pick and Prediction: Colby Covington vs. Tyron Woodley (Saturday, Sept. 19)

UFC Fight Night Main Event Odds, Pick and Prediction: Colby Covington vs. Tyron Woodley (Saturday, Sept. 19) article feature image

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Tyron Woodley.

  • Top-five welterweights Colby Covington (-420) and Tyron Woodley (+310) meet in UFC Fight Night's main event on Saturday.
  • Check out Sean Zerillo's full preview for updated odds, picks, and predictions ahead of Saturday night's main event.

Colby Covington vs. Tyron Woodley Odds

Covington odds -420 [BET NOW]
Woodley odds +310 [BET NOW]
Over/Under  4.5 Rounds (-225/+165) [BET NOW]
Time 11 p.m. ET
Venue UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Channel ESPN

Odds as of Saturday evening and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

This Saturday’s UFC Fight night card brings us a heated main event showdown between two outstanding fighters. No. 2-ranked welterweight Colby Covington and No. 5-ranked former welterweight champion Tyron Woodley square off in the octagon with a ton on the line for both fighters.

Woodley is looking to get back into the win column after back-to-back disappointing losses. Covington, also coming off a loss, is hoping to get another title shot with a win over Woodley.

Below, I break down where I see betting value based on the odds in tonight’s main event action. You can also check out my betting analysis and of all 14 bouts here.

Tale of the Tape

Covington Woodley
Record 15-2 19-5-1
Avg. Fight Time 14:45 12:34
Height 5’11” 5’9″
Weight (pounds) 170 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach (inches) 72″ 74″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 2/22/88 4/7/82
Sig Strikes Per Min 4.17 2.38
SS Accuracy 37% 49%
SS Absorbed Per Min 3.02 2.65
SS Defense 55% 56%
Take Down Avg 4.91 1.11
TD Acc 51% 39%
TD Def 78% 90%
Submission Avg 0.2 0.4

Woodley is the far more efficient striker (49% to 37% strike accuracy), and he has bigger power – but he spends too much time searching for highlight-reel blows rather than winning minutes inside of the cage.

Historically, Woodley’s takedown defense (90%) is among the best in UFC history, but he was taken down twice each by Gilbert Burns and Karamu Usman in his past two fights.

Covington vs. Woodley Betting Pick

I see the outcome in this fight as fairly binary — Covington by decision, or Woodley by knockout.

Tyron is simply too conservative with his strike volume, and Covington can almost double him up in terms of output (4.17 to 2.38 significant strikes landed per minute), but Woodley is durable (one KO loss in 2012), and Colby doesn’t hit as hard as some of Woodley’s previous opponents. I do see Covington executing a fairly similar game plan as those two men, though.

Covington pushes a frenetic pace, and Woodley – the older fighter – seems likely to succumb to that energy in the later rounds. I expect Covington – like Burns and Usman – to continually push forward and look to back Woodley into the cage, where he can wear him down in the clinch and potentially look for trip takedowns.

Woodley almost looked disinterested in those two losses against Burns and Usman. He was dominated from start to finish in both fights, rarely winning any exchanges. At the age of 38, time is clearly running out, and I’m not sure how many ranked welterweights I would favor Woodley against at this point in his career.

His physique looks noticeably trimmed down from his championship run, and I’m unsure if “The Chosen One” still possesses that big pop in his right hand anymore.

The only potential value bet that I could recommend for Saturday’s main event is the underdog, Woodley, to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+500); a bet that the crowd projected at +437.

I’ve decided to pass on this fight, but remember you can see the rest of the picks that I’m making on tonight’s card in my UFC Projections writeup here.

The Pick: Pass

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