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Don’Tale Mayes vs. Hamdy Abdelwahab UFC 277 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Fade the Mystery Newcomer? (Saturday, July 30)

Don’Tale Mayes vs. Hamdy Abdelwahab UFC 277 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Fade the Mystery Newcomer? (Saturday, July 30) article feature image
Credit:

Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC heavyweights Don’Tale Mayes and Hamdy Abdelwahab

Mayes vs. Abdelwahab Odds

Mayes Odds
-195
Abdelwahab Odds
+165
Over/Under
1.5 (-165 / +135)
Venue
American Airlines Center (Dallas)
Time
Approx. 8:30 p.m. ET
Channel
ABC and ESPN
Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings.

One of Saturday’s more-intriguing UFC 277 matchups pits heavyweight Don’Tale Mayes against promotional newcomer Hamdy Abdelwahab, who’s a bit of a mystery to fight fans.

Mayes (9-4) looks for his third straight win when he takes on Abdelwahab, a late replacement who’s also an Olympic Greco-Roman wrestler for Egypt. He’s currently 5-0 with five knockouts in his young MMA career.

Let’s dig into a preliminary-card matchup that has a lot of unknowns.

Tale of the Tape

Mayes Abdelwahab
Record 9-4 5-0
Avg. Fight Time 11:20 n/a
Height 6’6″ 6’2″
Weight (pounds) 260 lbs. 264 lbs.
Reach (inches) 81″ 72″
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Date of birth 1/16/1992 1/22/1993
Sig Strikes Per Min 3.75 0.00
SS Accuracy 46% 0%
SS Absorbed Per Min 3.83 0.0
SS Defense 42% 0%
Take Down Avg. 1.32 0.0
TD Acc 53% 0%
TD Def 62% 0%
Submission Avg 0.0 0.0

Abdelwahab is fighting in place of Justin Tafa as a short-notice debutant. The Olympic wrestler obviously has limited MMA experience.

Mayes has faced better competition and made significant strides as a fighter, particularly in his wrestling and grappling. And he should be the cleaner striker in this matchup while standing 4 inches taller, with a nine-inch reach advantage.

If Mayes can deny the takedowns (62% career takedown defense) and keep this fight standing, he should pour damage on Abdelwahab. And even if he’s on the wrong end of some wrestling exchanges, I expect him to land the shots when these two eventually return to their feet.

Abdelwahab carries power, and Mayes needs to keep this fight at range and use his length to avoid eating a knockout blow.

Mayes vs. Abdelwahab Pick

Ultimately, I expect the more experienced and well-rounded fighter to pull away and Mayes to secure another attritional-based stoppage.

I projected Mayes as a 70% favorite in this fight and would bet his moneyline up to -215 at a two percent edge compared to my number.

Moreover, I projected Mayes to win inside the distance 49% of the time (70% of his win condition), and I would bet his odds to win inside the distance down to +125.

The Picks:

  • Don’Tale Mayes (-180, 0.75u) at Caesars
  • Don’Tale Mayes Wins Inside the Distance (+160, 0.25u) at FanDuel

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