Ion Cutelaba vs. Devin Clark UFC Fight Night Odds & Pick: Potential Upset Brewing in Co-Main Event (Saturday, September 18)

Ion Cutelaba vs. Devin Clark UFC Fight Night Odds & Pick: Potential Upset Brewing in Co-Main Event (Saturday, September 18) article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images. Pictured: Ion Cutelaba and Devin Clark.

  • Saturday’s UFC card features an exciting co-main event bout between light heavyweights Ion Cutelaba and Devin Clark.
  • Cutelaba enters the fight as the favorite (-155 odds) over Clark despite being winless since 2019.
  • Erich Richter explains why he sees value in betting this fight live.

Ion Cutelaba vs. Devin Clark Odds

Cutelaba Odds -155
Clark Odds +135
Over/Under 1.5 (-150/ +120)
Venue UFC APEX
Time Approx. 9 p.m. ET
Channel ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute UFC odds here.

Saturday’s co-main event is a battle of contrasting styles at the light heavyweight division. The charismatic Ion Cutelaba seemingly has no limit to the amount of trash talk he will do leading up to a fight.

He is a fast starter with 13 wins inside of the first round. Unfortunately, Cutelaba has fallen on some hard times recently. He has been dominated in a few of his recent fights to the tune of a 1-3-1 record in his last five.

Clark is a gritty veteran who likes to muddy the waters and outwork his opponent. He will be in danger early against Cutelaba. So how should you approach betting this fight? Let’s break down both fighters.

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Tale of the Tape

Cutelaba Clark
Record 15-6-1 12-5
Avg. Fight Time 7:44 10:36
Height 6’1″ 6’0″
Weight (pounds) 205 lbs. 205 lbs.
Reach (inches) 75″ 75″
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Date of birth 12/14/93 4/12/90
Sig Strikes Per Min 5.03 3.33
SS Accuracy 40% 57%
SS Absorbed Per Min 3.80 2.43
SS Defense 47% 43%
Take Down Avg 3.69 2.70
TD Acc 57% 36%
TD Def 78% 76%
Submission Avg 0.0 0.1

Cutelaba storms out of the gate with reckless abandon. He 10-8’d Dustin Jacoby in his last fight. The main issue with his style is if he doesn’t get that first-round finish, his cardio is known to fade.

Cutelaba is a solid wrestler — showcased by his 3.69 takedowns per 15 minutes. He landed eight of his nine takedowns against Jacoby in the first round last time out. Notably, he did not land another takedown in the remaining nine minutes of the fight.

Cutebela forsure gonna gas

— Belal Muhammad (@bullyb170) May 2, 2021

The cardio issues for Cutelaba have been a huge issue for most of his career. This appears to be especially true against grapplers. Clark averages 2.7 takedowns per 15 minutes according to UFCStats.

Clark does not start his fights particularly fast. Although, his chin has held up recently. He hasn’t been knocked out since 2018, and that was against title contender Aleksander Rakic who is 6-foot-5.

Cutelaba vs. Clark Pick

Devin Clark should know that he needs to survive the early parts of this fight to have a chance. Cutelaba has very explosive movements and legitimate power in his hands.

Cutelaba’s ability to put any fighter away early is his most-likely win condition by far.  We have yet to see Cutelaba prove anything else after the first round.

Furthermore, Clark has attempted double-digit takedowns two of his last five fights. At first glance, his 36% takedown accuracy seems troublesome.  However, when betting against a fighter with poor cardio, I am looking for durability and work rate.

Devin Clark profiles as the perfect matchup to bet against Ion Cutelaba, especially as an underdog. Clark is a workhorse type at a top-tier MMA gym like Jackson-Wink.

I am betting on Clark to win this fight late or by decision. After Round 1, it is entirely possible that Clark is a +400 underdog. Cutelaba starts off so strong but fades drastically shortly thereafter.

I think Clark by decision at +250 is good value, but a submission victory against an exhausted Cutelaba scares me away. I would prefer to keep finishes on the table and pounce on a big plus-money spot after Round 1 for Devin Clark.

The Pick: Devin Clark moneyline +135 | Live Bet Clark After Round 1

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