Jack Hermansson vs. Kelvin Gastelum Odds, Pick & Prediction: The Bet to Make For the Co-Main Event of UFC Fight Island 2

Credit:

Hu Chengwei/Getty Images. Pictured: UFC fighter Kelvin Gastelum.

Jul 19, 2020, 08:30 PM EDT
  • The updated betting lines for tonight's UFC co-main event list both Jack Hermansson and Kelvin Gastelum at -112 odds and the over/under at 2.5 rounds.
  • Gastelum and Hermansson are each looking to bounce back from losses in their most recent fights.
  • Dann Stupp analyzes tonight's matchup along with his betting pick to win below.

Jack Hermansson vs. Kelvin Gastelum Odds

Hermansson odds -112 [BET NOW]
Gastelum odds -112 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-177/+130) [BET NOW]
Venue Yas Island, Abu Dhabi
Time Saturday at 10 p.m. ET
Channel ESPN/ESPN+

Odds as of Saturday 8 a.m. ET and via FanDuel. Get up to a $500 risk-free bet at FanDuel today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


The conditions are ripe for Kelvin Gastelum to end his skid and re-establish himself as a top dog in the UFC’s stacked middleweight division.

Gastelum (16-5), who followed up an interim title loss to Israel Adesanya with a split-decision defeat to Darren Till in 2019, looks for a fresh start in 2020 when he takes on crafty Swedish fighter Jack Hermansson (20-5).

The line, which opened -150 in favor of Gastelum, was immediately bet to the point of a near-pick’em state, drifted back to the -140 range, but has since returned to tantalizing even-money +100 odds for Gastelum.

Tale of the Tape

Hermansson Gastelum
Record 20-5 16-5 (1 NC)
Avg. Fight Time 8:05 12:49
Height 6’1″ 5’9″
Weight (pounds) 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach (inches) 77″ 71″
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Date of birth 6/10/88 10/24/91
Sig Strikes Per Min 5.13 3.75
SS Accuracy 48% 43%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.56 3.01
SS Defense 56% 59%
Take Down Avg 2.23 0.80
TD Acc 36% 35%
TD Def 77% 62%
Submission Avg 0.7 0.1

Here’s an in-depth preview of that matchup below, including where I see some potential betting value. You can also check out Sean Zerillo’s analysis of all 12 bouts here.

Jack Hermansson vs. Kelvin Gastelum Pick

Sure, Gastelum, a former top welterweight, is going to give up some noticeable size to Hermansson, a 32-year-old vet whose recent four-fight winning streak came to a halt this past September with a TKO loss to Jared Cannonier. That size disparity, which has been a constant focus of conversation since Gastelum’s move up to the 185-pound division in late 2016, was evident at Friday’s official weigh-ins.

Tonight, Gastelum will deal with a 4-inch height disadvantage, and he’s also giving up six inches of reach. However, all six opponents he’s fought since his move up to middleweight have been at least 6-feet tall, so 6-foot-1 Hermansson is nothing new for 5-foot-9 spark plug Gastelum.

To help overcome his size disadvantage, Gastelum adeptly uses the speed and power that served his so well at 170 pounds. And against bigger foes such as Hermansson, who is likely to pressure his opponent quickly and often while trying to get the fight to the mat, southpaw Gastelum is also going to have ample opportunity to unload counter left hooks. They could be his most effective and dangerous weapon in this fight, as they were in a pivotal 2017 win over ex-champ Michael Bisping.

But against Hermansson, a longtime wrestler with a productive submission game, Gastelum is going to need to rely on his other traits – namely his proven scrambling and escape ability – to avoid trouble. Gastelum, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, proved that ability against dangerous submission ace Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza two years ago en route to a split-decision victory.

But look, Hermansson is no pushover. With his size and a very well-rounded game, the former Cage Warriors champ has tallied 16 stoppages (11 knockouts and five submissions) in 20 career victories. And though he doesn’t pack quite the punch that Gastelum does, Hermansson lands more significant strikes per minute (5.1 to 3.8), he lands them more accurately (48% to 43%), and he absorbs fewer strikes per minute (2.6 to 3.0).


Think Hermansson vs. Gastelum will end by KO/TKO? FanDuel is boosting the odds on that prop from +165 to +190 today. BET NOW.


Additionally, once on the canvas, Hermansson can be relentless with submission attempts and force an opponent to carry his weight during the process, as David Branch learned in 2019.

However, like his own 2019 triumph over “Souza,” most of Hermansson’s signature career wins have come against fighters who were either on the tail end of their careers, or they were competitors who never quite reached A-level status in the division.

Additionally, despite more than a decade of experience on some of MMA’s biggest stages, Hermansson is still not entirely comfortable when facing a good striker, and southpaw Gastelum is undoubtedly just such a challenge. Throw in Gastelum’s power – the kind that can halt or significantly alter the trajectory of a fight in a split second – and I think he can overcome Hermansson’s on-paper striking edge.

It’s logical to expect that Hermansson will eventually drag this fight to the mat, and it’s perfectly reasonable to expect him to do some damage with some ground and point one there.

But Gastelum is hard to put away (he’s been stopped just once in 21 career fights), and with his speed, power and scrambling ability, he’s got enough advantages to make up for the few disadvantages in this matchup.

Pick: Kelvin Gastelum -112

Bet Now at DraftKings

CO, NJ, PA, IN, WV only.
How would you rate this article?
Follow Dann Stupp on Twitter
@DannStupp

Top Offers

Odds Boosts
See More >
Odds boosts are simply regular bets offered at enticing odds. They're available to everyone and there's no limit to how many you can bet.
Sportsbook Reviews
See More >
Discover the best online sports betting sites and take advantage of bonus offers from legal sportsbooks.
Expert Picks
See More >
See what plays the Action Network experts are making for all of today's games.
PRO Membership
See More >
Access betting systems and signals to get daily, actionable picks.
Download the App
See More >
Download the Action app to track all your bets in one place. Exclusive data helped you make smarter betting decisions.
Newsletter
See More >
The best sports betting newsletter with trends, insights and news - condensed in a two-minute read.
Live Odds
See More >
See live odds and the best lines for every game.

Follow Us On Social

Top Stories