Check out the Moicano vs. Dariush pick and prediction for UFC 317 on Saturday, June 28, with my betting preview and breakdown.
The main card lightweight tilt between Renato Moicano and Beneil Dariush is a matchup between two careers moving in opposite directions. Moicano displayed a brash persona during his recent four-fight win streak before falling to one of the top pound-for-pound fighters on the planet on short notice. With only two losses in the last four years, oddsmakers and fans alike are starting to take him seriously as a potential title contender in the division.
Moicano vs. Dariush Odds
| Moicano Odds | -112 |
| Dariush Odds | -108 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-115 / -115) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC 317 odds as of xx and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 317 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Moicano opened as a -218 favorite when this was originally announced, and I believe that is a more accurate portrayal of where these men are than the current price heading into UFC 317.
Here's my Moicano vs. Dariush pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Dariush | Moicano | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-6-1 | 20-6-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:54 | 9:09 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 72" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/6/1989 | 5/21/1989 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.78 | 4.36 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.65 | 3.55 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.90 | 1.82 |
| TD Acc | 34% | 44% |
| TD Def | 80% | 71% |
| Submission Avg | 0.9 | 0.6 |
Beneil Dariush, on the other hand, has not gotten his hand raised in nearly three years, suffering two consecutive knockout losses. Dariush had previously rattled off eight straight victories, but that has not stopped the chatter about possible retirement for a fighter most see as having his best days behind him.
If there is a chance one of these men has fallen victim to father time at this stage of their career, it is undoubtedly Dariush.
Interestingly enough, Moicano and Dariush are separated by just 15 days in age. The similarities don’t end there. Both men are within one inch in height, have the exact same reach, are within one percentage point of each other in striking accuracy, and are within three percentage points of each other in striking defense over the course of their UFC careers.
When it comes to the grappling aspect of this fight, we can only hope to witness some scrambles and exchanges on the mat. While I believe Dariush is the better pure wrestler, both fighters have world-class jiu-jitsu.
