Check out the Renato Moicano vs. Beneil Dariush prediction for UFC 317 on Saturday, June 28, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Moicano vs. Dariush Odds
| Moicano Odds | -118 |
| Dariush Odds | -102 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-105 / -125) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC 317 odds as of xx and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 317 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
The main card lightweight tilt between Renato Moicano and Beneil Dariush is a matchup between two careers moving in opposite directions. Moicano displayed a brash persona during his recent four-fight win streak before falling to one of the top pound-for-pound fighters on the planet on short notice. With only two losses in the last four years, oddsmakers and fans alike are starting to take him seriously as a potential title contender in the division.
Moicano opened as a -218 favorite when this was originally announced, and I believe that is a more accurate portrayal of where these men are than the current price heading into UFC 317.
Here's my Moicano vs. Dariush pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Dariush | Moicano | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-6-1 | 20-6-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:54 | 9:09 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 72" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/6/1989 | 5/21/1989 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.78 | 4.36 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.65 | 3.55 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.90 | 1.82 |
| TD Acc | 34% | 44% |
| TD Def | 80% | 71% |
| Submission Avg | 0.9 | 0.6 |
Beneil Dariush, on the other hand, has not gotten his hand raised in nearly three years, suffering two consecutive knockout losses. Dariush had previously rattled off eight straight victories, but that has not stopped the chatter about possible retirement for a fighter most see as having his best days behind him.
If there is a chance one of these men has fallen victim to father time at this stage of their career, it is undoubtedly Dariush.
Interestingly enough, Moicano and Dariush are separated by just 15 days in age. The similarities don’t end there. Both men are within one inch in height, have the exact same reach, are within one percentage point of each other in striking accuracy, and are within three percentage points of each other in striking defense over the course of their UFC careers.
When it comes to the grappling aspect of this fight, we can only hope to witness some scrambles and exchanges on the mat. While I believe Dariush is the better pure wrestler, both fighters have world-class jiu-jitsu.
On numerous occasions, other UFC fighters who are considered strong grapplers have been completely overwhelmed by the skills of both Dariush and Moicano when it comes to defending submissions.
With that said, the momentum Moicano has built in recent years cannot be ignored. Even at age 35, the trajectory of his skills seem to be ascending. His crisp striking, often implemented behind a stinging jab, can allow him to go toe to toe with just about any lightweight the world has to offer.
Fighting in this manner for the full 15 minutes is done with relative ease by Moicano, as there are no concerns about his cardio whatsoever.
Dariush’s striking comes with a level of aggressiveness and excitement that make it hard to envision this bout hitting the scorecards. The lightweight mainstay is willing to press forward, even lunging forward at times to potentially land a contest-ending strike. There is a level of recklessness to his game that can also create openings for his opponent, though.
While Moicano is the more measured striker, that does not necessarily mean he can avoid danger entirely. Dariush is willing to throw from all angles, at any time. Sometimes even to his own detriment if he believes damage is there for the taking.
Dariush vs. Moicano Pick, Prediction
The elephant in the room is both men have major durability concerns. While the perception is Dariush is the more likely of the two to be finished, his last two losses were at the hands of the top two current lightweight fighters in the world.
Dariush does find himself at a speed disadvantage and at this point, he may be doubting his ability to compete against the very best in the lightweight division.
Moicano has no such concerns, dispensing of Benoit Saint-Denis in his most recent victory. It is all but a certainty that MMA math is of little relevance, but do you believe Beneil Dariush could get a finish victory over the likes of Saint-Denis?
The more time that has passed, it seems oddsmakers and bettors alike have forgotten the shortcomings Dariush has stepping in to face a very dangerous opponent.
Sure, he could get his grappling going and avoid danger for 15 minutes to get his hand raised, but those chances are much lower than the 50/50 this line has moved to indicate. I am simply in disagreement and see Moicano as a significant value at this point.
John's Picks: Renato Moicano -115 (Caesars)
