UFC 265 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Song Yadong vs. Casey Kenney: Bantamweights Open PPV Card (Saturday, Aug. 7)
Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC. Song Yadong (left) and Casey Kenney (right).
- Two exciting bantamweights open the UFC 265 main card on Saturday night when Song Yadong faces Casey Kenney.
- Both fighters are coming off losses against contenders at 135 pounds and will look to get back on track with a win here.
- Sean Zerillo breaks down the matchup and where he sees betting value in Houston.
Song Yadong vs. Casey Kenney Odds
Two bantamweights coming off defeats look to bounce back at the start of the UFC 265 main card, when Song Yadong takes on Casey Kenney.
Yadong was undefeated in his first six UFC fights (five wins, one draw) but fell to Kyler Phillips back in March at UFC 259. He is just 23 years old and already has an impressive 23 professional fights on his track record.
Kenney, meanwhile, lost a tight split decision against Dominick Cruz in March after winning three straight. He’s still a solid 5-2 in UFC and his only losses are to former-champion Cruz and Merab Dvalishvili, who has won six straight at 135 pounds.
Let’s break down this matchup to get the pay-per-view going.
Tale of the Tape
| Song | Kenney | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-5-1 | 16-3-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:54 | 13:40 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135.5 lbs. | 136 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 67" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 12/2/97 | 3/20/91 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.35 | 4.81 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 42% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.64 | 4.30 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.59 | 1.10 |
| TD Acc | 75% | 39% |
| TD Def | 56% | 59% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.5 |
In this bantamweight tilt, Song has slight advantages in power and efficiency (+0.71 to +0.51 strike differential), but I tick nearly all of the other boxes for Kenney.
The MMA Lab product was impressive in his recent split-decision loss to Dominick Cruz, landing 74 significant strikes (38%) against one of the most elusive fighters in UFC history. He has shown excellent durability, good cardio, and an array of skills, including the ability to secure takedowns using both judo and wrestling techniques (1.10 per 15 minutes, 39% accuracy).
Kenney is the more well-rounded fighter and the more diverse striker, while Song tends to be a headhunter at times.
I do give Song more finishing upside in this matchup. Still, Kenney is the likelier minute-winner down the stretch and should provide better optics than the more one-dimensional attack from his opponent.
LIGHTS OUT! 💡
💪 Don't sleep on Song Yadong's power! #UFCReplaypic.twitter.com/6D3RlBaEAw
— UFC (@ufc) March 28, 2020
Song vs. Kenney Pick
I project value on Kenney's moneyline (projected 58%) up to -120, and I also show value on his decision prop (projected +148) too.
While I project value on the Over/Distance prop (projected -211, listed -200), I think more of that decision weight is tied to the Kenney side.
The Pick:
- Casey Kenney (-120. 0.5u)
- Casey Kenney wins by Decision (+175, 0.25u)
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