Tim Means vs. Kevin Holland Odds, UFC Pick & Prediction: Bet ‘Big Mouth’ to Get the Finish

Tim Means vs. Kevin Holland Odds

Kevin "Trailblazer" Holland looks to improve upon his 1-0 record at Welterweight, as he takes on Tim "Dirty Bird" Means on the main card of UFC Fight Night: Austin. A win over Means would go a long way toward establishing Holland as a Welterweight contender, with Means being a 23-fight UFC veteran.

Holland is a heavy favorite in this one, but Means is on a three-fight winning streak and is always a tough out. Will Holland continue to ascend a new division, or can Means keep his winning streak alive? More importantly, how should we bet it?

Below, you'll find my answers to all of those questions, with a plus-money prop as my favorite bet.

Tale of the Tape

Means broke into the UFC in 2012 as a Lightweight, picking up a 2-2 record before being cut. He picked up two wins on the regional circuit before returning to the UFC as a Welterweight in 2014, and has stuck around ever since.

He's never really been a top contender, but has been a solidly above average UFC fighter throughout his career. He does everything well, with solid striking volume that plays to the strengths of his 6-foot-2 frame.

While he doesn't initiate grappling often, he's solid there too. He picks up roughly a takedown per round, and has two submission wins in the UFC. He's been most effective as a minute-winner though, picking up three consecutive unanimous decision victories. He hasn't finished a fight standing since 2016, with his power playing better as  a lightweight than welterweight.

Holland profiles similarly on paper, with some takedown upside but more active in the striking realm. He's more of a sniper than Means, throwing with less volume and more power, and from awkward angles.

While he's the less technical striker, he's picked up (T)KOs via strikes in four of his past six wins, all coming since 2016. His power should play extremely well at a lower weight class, as he demonstrated with a knockout over Alex Oliveira in his divisional debut.

Holland also has solid submissions, and regularly competes in grappling events. I'd give him the edge if this one hits the mat, though it's fairly close. With both fighters defending takedowns at a high rate, it might not matter anyway.

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Means vs. Holland Pick

There's a lot working against Means in this one. While he's had more UFC success than Holland, he's more than eight years Holland's senior and nearing the twilight of his career. When there's an eight or more year age gap in the UFC, the younger fighter wins 65% of the time at average odds of roughly -130 (56.5% implied.)

The weight class history also favors Holland, who was noticeably undersized as a Middleweight. Means has certainly filled out past the point of being able to make Lightweight, but doesn't have the frame of a true Welterweight. He's giving up 6 inches of reach in this one.

Means doesn't frequently fight opponents who are longer than him, with the last such fight being against Niko Price in 2019. Price knocked out Means in the first round, and Means was also stopped by Daniel Rodriguez who has a similar reach to Means. It's uncomfortable when you're generally the much longer fighter to have to adapt to longer opponents.

All of that has been picked up on by the markets, with Holland's moneyline odds going from -240 early in the week to between -280 and -300 on Friday. That's a bit more juice than I'd like to lay.

Instead, I'm looking to target Holland inside the distance. The best odds are +175 at BetRivers, and I'd take it down to +160. Means is durable, but has a track record of getting finished by longer opponents.

Holland is also a finisher, a trait that should only improve at a lighter weight class. He has enough submission upside that I prefer the stoppage line to the knockout prop though.

The Pick: Kevin Holland ITD +175