Trevin Giles vs. Dricus Du Plessis UFC 264 Odds, Pick & Prediction: How To Bet Prelim Opener (Saturday, July 10)

Trevin Giles vs. Dricus Du Plessis UFC 264 Odds, Pick & Prediction: How To Bet Prelim Opener (Saturday, July 10) article feature image
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Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC fighter Dricus du Plessis.

  • The UFC 264 prelim card opens with a very intriguing middleweight matchup between Trevin Giles and Dricus du Plessis.
  • Giles, 28, has won three straight, while the 27-year-old du Plessis has finished his last three opponents, including Markus Perez in his UFC debut last October.
  • Sean Zerillo breaks down this fight below, delivering his best bet for the matchup.

Trevin Giles vs. Dricus Du Plessis Odds

Giles Odds
+100
Du Plessis Odds
-120
Over/Under
2.5 (-115 / -105)
Venue
T-Mobile Arena
Time
Approx. 8 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN
Odds as of Friday and via BetMGM.

middleweight’s Trevin Giles and Dricus du Plessis will face off in the Octagon Saturday to kick off the four-fight prelim card for UFC 264.

Giles is riding a three fight win streak that dates back to February 2020 while Du Plessis has fought just once in the UFC but has a 15-2 career record as a pro. Despite his lack of experience, Du Plessis proved to be dangerous in debut, which ended in a first-round KO victory.

Below I preview the matchup and odds for tonight’s fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate.

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Tale of the Tape

Giles Du Plessis
Record 14-2 15-2
Avg. Fight Time 12:31 3:22
Height 6’0″ 6’1″
Weight (pounds) 185.5 lbs. 185.5 lbs.
Reach (inches) 74″ 76″
Stance Orthodox Switch
Date of birth 8/6/92 1/14/94
Sig Strikes Per Min 3.26 7.72
SS Accuracy 56% 44%
SS Absorbed Per Min 1.88 4.16
SS Defense 62% 67%
Take Down Avg 1.37 0.00
TD Acc 80% 0%
TD Def 79% 0%
Submission Avg 0.3 0.0

Du Plessis is an action fighter. All 17 of his professional MMA bouts have ended inside the distance, including his UFC debut last October.

The South African uses his leg kicks aggressively (landed 15-of-25 in under four minutes against Markus Perez), offers good power, and has shown a strong choke submission game.

The leg kicks and the chokes pose major problems for Giles, who has been submitted twice by Guillotine in the UFC. His output is unreliable, and he doesn’t have the best gas tank, but Giles does offer power, and Du Plessis is very hittable.

If he doesn’t wander into the pocket with his chin up, Du Plessis should be able to destroy Giles’ lead leg, drag him to the ground, and choke him out. But I have major concerns about his defensive shortcomings too, and I think it’s a matter of time before a UFC fighter finds the mark and puts Du Plessis to sleep. At best, he reacts poorly when absorbing damage.

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Giles vs. Du Plessis Pick

Du Plessis is fun, but flawed, and he seems to have a high variance type of style which makes for some exciting fights. He’s a former pro kickboxer with a ton of submission wins on his record, which is an encouraging sign, but his defensive grappling needs work, and I have reservations about his durability.

Since Du Plessis always forces the action, I think there’s a good chance of violence in this spot. I projected the fight to end inside the distance 60%, and I would bet under 2.5 Rounds to -115.

The Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds (-105)

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