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UFC 250 Updated Betting Odds, Picks & Projections: Breakdowns for All 12 Bouts on Saturday’s Card

UFC 250 Updated Betting Odds, Picks & Projections: Breakdowns for All 12 Bouts on Saturday’s Card article feature image

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Sean O’Malley.

  • If you're looking for some value on tonight's UFC 250 undercard, or you're hoping to hammer the top tier fights, you're in luck.
  • Sean Zerillo all 12 bout on Saturday's slate beginning with early prelims (6 p.m. ET on ESPN+) and culminating with a stacked main card (10 p.m. ET ESPN PPV).
  • Below you'll find picks for the full UFC slate, including how he's betting tonight's main event between Amanda Nunes (-625 betting favorite) and Felicia Spencer (+450 betting underdog).

UFC 250 begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+ on Saturday with a seven-fight preliminary card. The main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, featuring five bouts, including the women’s Featherweight title fight between Amanda Nunes and Felicia Spencer. 

In addition to moneylines and over/unders, there are numerous ways to bet on an MMA fight — including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision.

As a result, after examining all of the betting options, your typical UFC card can offer a substantial amount of actionable value.

Check out the full betting odds, with analysis from Sean Zerillo, and picks for each fight below:

UFC 250 PROMOS! Bet Amanda Nunes at +500 odds, boosted from -600!

UFC 250 Odds & Projections

Early Preliminary Card

  • Time: 6 p.m. ET

Catchweight fight: Evan Dunham vs. Herbert Burns

Dunham odds +180
Burns odds -230
Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-148)

Crowdsourced Projection: Herbert Burns (78%)

If you watched Gilbert Burns defeat Tyron Woodley in the main event last Saturday, you might take an interest in his brother Herbert (10-2) who is on a four-fight winning streak – including this vicious knockout with a knee from the clinch in his UFC debut in January:


Welcome to the UFC, @HerbertBurnsMMA! 🇧🇷

Head over to E+ ➡️ #UFCRaleigh

— UFC (@ufc) January 25, 2020

That knockout power could present problems for 38-year-old veteran Evan Dunham, who was stopped in each of his last two fights in 2018 before taking nearly two years off.

The southpaw Dunham is the more technical striker than Burns – with a career +1.81 significant strike differential in the UFC – and he can land at high volume (5.35 per minute) while defending both strikes (61%) and takedown attempts (80%).

If Burns takes Dunham to the ground, the fight could end in a hurry; the Brazilian has recorded six first-round submissions, and Burns by submission (+215) and Burns Round 1 (+220) are the respective favorites in their prop betting markets.

Betting Over 2.5 rounds (+110), playing the fight to go the distance (+129), or backing Dunham by decision (+325) are each intriguing wagers, in addition to taking the underdog on the moneyline.

And while I would lean to the underdog in this fight, I cannot wager on the 38-year-old Dunham coming off of the long layoff.

The crowd projection puts Burns at a 78% probability (implied odds of -355) of winning this fight, meaning that they see more than 8% of line value on the favorite compared to current odds at -230 (implied 69.7%). Use our betting calculator to find your edge if you have different odds.

Dunham vs. Burns Bets

  • Pass

Light Heavyweight fight: Alonzo Menifield vs. Devin Clark

Menifield odds -235
Clark odds +183
Over/Under 1.5 (+105/-139)

Crowdsourced Projection: Alonzo Menifield (90%)

Undefeated Alonzo Menifield has won seven of his nine career fights in the first round, including all three of his UFC victories. Nobody has had any success against him, at any level, which means that the Light Heavyweight still has plenty of questions to answer with regards to his complete skill set.

Menifield gets a tough test on Saturday in Devin Clark, who can dictate the pace of the fight and slow the powerful favorite to a lull with his wrestling, which has enabled “Brown Bear” to average more than three takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC.

Clark is no slouch on the feet either, with a decisive strike differential (+0.67) and a 7-0 record on the scorecards, a reflection of his point-fighting abilities. As a result, Clark by decision (+350) is a pretty appealing wager, along with betting Over 1.5 rounds (+105) or playing the fight to go the distance (+198).

Menifield by KO, TKO, or DQ (-143) is the most popular play, but I’ll take a small stab on the underdog, who has been bet down from a +270 opening line, to win on points – and go against the crowd projection which I think is severely underrating Clark’s true chances.

Menifield vs. Clark Bets

  • Devin Clark by Decision +350 (0.5 units)
  • Clark / Menifield, Over 1.5 Rounds (+105, 0.5 units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]

Flyweight fight: Jussier Formiga vs. Alex Perez

Formiga odds +111
Perez odds -137
Over/Under 2.5 (-230/+166)

Crowdsourced Projection: Jussier Formiga (64%)

The crowd likes the veteran Formiga as an underdog in this Flyweight bout, but this is a case of two fighters going in different directions, and I do disagree with their selection for the third consecutive fight to start the UFC 250 card.

The 28-year-old Perez has won 10 of his last 11 fights – including six of seven in the UFC, while the 35-year-old Formiga may be on the downside of his career, coming into this fight on the back of consecutive losses for the first time, after suffering a knockout loss last June and looking less explosive, while going one for nine on takedown attempts, in his March loss to Brandon Moreno.

Formiga is the better technician, but Perez strikes at a significantly higher volume (4.48 to 1.35 significant strikes per minute) and margin (+1.49 to -0.88) with better accuracy (47% to 39%) too.

If Formiga can win the grappling battles, he should win the fight – and he has had a lot of success against fighters similar to Perez in the past.

This fight is -205 to go the distance, and Perez by decision (+175) is the obvious choice if Formiga is in decline. He is 12-1 on the scorecards in his career, while Formiga is 13-4 when the fight goes to the judges.

Formiga by submission (+555) has some minor appeal if you like the underdog, but that’s not the way that I’m leaning in a fight, which I will ultimately skip for betting purposes.

Perez has taken the majority of the money, moving from +110 at open to higher than -140 currently across the market.

Formiga vs. Perez Bets

  • Pass

Preliminary Card

  • Time: 8 p.m. ET

Middleweight fight: Charles Byrd vs. Maki Pitolo

Byrd odds -180
Pitolo odds +143
Over/Under 1.5 (-159/+119)

Crowdsourced Projection: Charles Byrd (69%)

If you enjoy watching Hawaiin-born athletes, Maki Pitolo, a.k.a. “Coconut Bombz” should certainly have your attention as a high-octane power-puncher in the UFC’s middleweight division.

Pitolo is moving up from welterweight, after his UFC debut loss to Callan Potter, where he was out-classed in all facets by a smaller fighter. If Byrd can stick to a similar gameplan as Potter and avoid getting sucked into a boxing match, he should ultimately prevail; with a decision victory (+250) or submission win (+300) listed atop the betting choices.

Byrd has been knocked out in each of his past two fights, however, and despite the 15-month layoff, Pitolo is precisely the type of fighter who will test a questionable chin; but his first-round odds (+550) aren’t enticing enough to bet.

That being said, I think that Byrd is the right side, and tend to agree with the crowd projection; but there isn’t enough betting value on the favorite to make a play at odds of -177 (implied 64.9%) – a 5% gap compared to the crowd projection.

Byrd vs. Pitolo Bets

  • Pass

Featherweight fight: Cody Stamann vs. Brian Kelleher

Stamann odds -275
Kelleher odds +210
Over/Under 2.5 (-240/+174)

Crowdsourced Projection: Cody Stamann (77%)

Kelleher upset the previously undefeated Hunter Azure on May 13 as a +170 underdog, after taking out another top prospect, Ode Osbourne, as a +120 underdog in January.

Kelleher lured Azure, a strong wrestler, into a striking battle, and ultimately prevailed with a highlight-reel knockout:

BOOM GOES KELLEHER! 🤯@BrianBoom135 lands on the button at #UFCJAX!

➡️ Watch NOW on E+

— UFC (@ufc) May 13, 2020

But I don’t anticipate that the more seasoned Stamann will be as stubborn while averaging three takedowns per UFC fight and 3.58 per 15 minutes on a 48% takedown accuracy.

He also owns the positive strike differential (+1.19 to -1.36) between the two fighters, though as we saw in the Azure fight, that doesn’t matter given Kelleher’s one-punch knockout power.

Stamann opened as a -180 (implied 64.3%) favorite for this bout and has been bet up by nearly 10% in terms of line value to -286 (implied 74.1%)

This fight is -225 to go the distance, the most likely fight of the night to reach the scorecards, and Stamann is a -139 favorite to win by a decision, which would be my only lean.

But the crowd projection (77%) is otherwise comparable to his listed odds at -286 (implied 74.1%), and I’ll sit back and enjoy what could be the fight of the night.

Stamann vs. Kelleher Bets

  • Pass

Middleweight fight: Ian Heinisch vs. Gerald Meerschaert

Heinisch odds -130
Meerschaert odds +105
Over/Under 2.5 (-200/+150)

Crowdsourced Projection: Ian Heinisch (57%)

Once again, the crowd projection for the favorite (57%) is within a few percentage points of the listed odds at -125 (implied 55.6%), in a likely fight, at -162, to reach the scorecards.

Heinisch by decision (+150) is the top selection for winning method, with Meerscharet by decision (+300) narrowly edging out his submission odds (+350) for the second choice after Meerscharet recorded his 22nd career submission victory in March.

He has a five-inch reach advantage and two-inch height advantage over the favorite, and I suspect that he will completely dominate the grappling battles.

Meerscharet struggles when he cannot get the easy takedown (2.37 per 15 minutes, 43% accuracy in the UFC). Still, you need to respect the fact that he offers multiple paths to victory while offering an ironclad chin against Heinisch’s potent power.

I’ll pass on betting this fight, but it could be a swing fight for DFS purposes, and I’ll likely include Meerscharet, and his dangerous submission skills, in some of my lineups.

Heinisch vs. Meerschaert Bets

  • Pass

Featherweight fight: Alex Caceres vs. Chase Hooper

Caceres odds +152
Hooper odds -190
Over/Under 2.5 (+115/-155)

Crowdsourced Projection: Chase Hooper (84%)

If you want a more in-depth analysis of the Hooper-Caceres fight, check out my full fight preview.

The undefeated 20-year-old Hooper opened at -110 has been bet up near -200 for his second UFC fight, in size and stylistic mismatch with Alex Caceres.

Hooper is still incredibly green as a prospect, and he has significant work to do on his stand up game, particularly defensively. Still, Caceres has very little power to stop him from coming straight forward.

Hooper is awkwardly large for a Featherweight, and once he gets a hold of you with his long limbs, it’s challenging to get out of his grasp. In the 25-foot cage, Caceres has even less space to try to maneuver away.

I bet Hooper on the moneyline, as his odds to win by knockout, submission, or DQ (+105) didn’t appeal to me – though I do expect him to win inside of the distance.

In addition to betting his moneyline, I’ll also use Hooper to begin a small parlay with the two most substantial favorites on the card.

Caceres vs. Hooper Bets

  • Chase Hooper -190 (1 unit)
  • Parlay: Chase Hooper / Sean O’Malley / Amanda Nunes (+112, 0.5 units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]

Main Card

  • Time: 10 p.m. ET

Bantamweight fight: Eddie Wineland vs. Sean O’Malley

Wineland odds +360
O’Malley odds -500
Over/Under 1.5 (-139/+105)

Crowdsourced Projection: Sean O’Malley (91%)

Undefeated 25-year-old Bantamweight Sean O’Malley is both a current and future star in this sport, and his return to the octagon at UFC 248 was a welcome sight:

Sean O'Malley finishes Jose Quinonez

— CFU FU (@CFUVT) June 3, 2020

He’s incredibly technical and lands at a high volume (6.87 significant strikes per 15 minutes) with incredible accuracy (57%) and defense (66%) on the other end of exchanges.

O’Malley is the better athlete, with a four-inch height advantage and three-inch reach advantage over Wineland, in addition to being 10 years younger and significantly faster.

This bout should mostly stay on the feet, which is what makes O’Malley by KO/TKO so appealing.

The crowd projects O’Malley as a 91% favorite, with 70% of those predictions calling for a win by KO/TKO, which suggests that the fair odds for his knockout prop should be -175 (implied 63.7%).

Even at his current odds of -500 (implied 83.3%), multiplied by that 70% knockout probability, you get fair odds of -139 (58.1%), meaning that O’Malley by KO, TKO, or DQ is actionable at -121.

I’ll also be using O’Malley as a parlay piece.

Pick: O’Malley KO/TKO/DQ (-121, 0.5u)
Get +124 odds with 50% boost at DK


NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.

Welterweight fight: Neil Magny vs. Anthony Rocco Martin

Magny odds -136
Martin odds +108
Over/Under 2.5 (-250/+180)

Crowdsourced Projection: Neil Magny (81%)

Magny has a significant size advantage against Martin in this fight — 3 inches in height and 7 inches of reach — which should allow him to stick his jab repeatedly before working his way inside with his solid grappling, where he works best out of the clinch.

He also fights at a higher volume than his opponent, landing an additional 1.23 significant strikes per minute, with significantly better differential (+1.78 to +0.25) and accuracy (46% to 36%) metrics.

Magny used his grappling tremendously well in his last fight, dominating a power puncher in Li Jingliang and proving that he can take a shot as a +130 underdog, after getting bet down from +210.

Martin prefers to fight from range, and he doesn’t have nearly the same power as Li to threaten Magny from a stoppage perspective – but he has steadily improved his entire game and should not be discounted.

He’s going to need to use his leg kicks effectively to put Magny off-balance and make him hesitant about coming forward.

Ultimately, I like the way that Magny looked in his last bout – using his incredibly long limbs to control the range and pace of the fight – and he comes from an incredibly hot camp in Elevation Fight Team – which features Justin Gaethje, Alistair Overeem, Drew Dober, and a potential future Bantamweight champion that you will see in the next bout, Cory Sandhagen.

Pick: Magny to win (-136, 1u)
Get +110 odds with 50% boost at DK


NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.

Bantamweight fight: Aljamain Sterling vs. Cory Sandhagen

Sterling odds -112
Sandhagen odds -112
Over/Under 2.5 (-250/+180)

Crowdsourced Projection: Aljamain Sterling (53%)

Behind Stamann vs. Kelleher and Magny vs. Martin, the Sterling vs. Sandhagen clash, which is essentially a No. 1 contender fight for a Bantamweight title shot, is the third-most likely bout to go the distance on Saturday at odds of -215.

In my opinion, this might as well be the Bantamweight title fight, as I think the winner ultimately defeats the interim champion, to be decided between Jose and Petr Yan – and it’s a shame that we won’t get five rounds of Sterling vs. Sandhagen; though we might one day with a belt on the line.

Sterling is an incredible wrestler and grappler, who is extremely difficult to hit. Still, his striking has improved drastically in recent years, and he’s amongst the most well-rounded MMA fighters on the planet.

Sandhagen is the more active and powerful striker; however, using his switch stance to confuse opponents from multiple angles with hands, legs, knees, and elbows. He’s also a fearless wrestler and extremely tough – so he won’t be afraid of going to the mat with Sterling, and has been taken down in each of his five UFC fights.

I expect Sterling’s higher fight IQ and experience to prove too much in the end for Sandhagen. The two men own similar striking metrics, but Sandhagen’s opponents are eight for 11 in takedown attempts in his five UFC fights, and the better wrestler should be able to dominate from top position for a good portion of this fight – after using the smaller octagon to work Sandhagen against the fence.

81% of the crowd who picked Sterling chose him to win by decision. If you multiply that 81% by his fight odds (implied 54%), you get expected odds of +129 (implied 43.7%).

As a result, betting Sterling to win by decision (+175) offers at least 7% in line value, and is the only way that I would play this fight.

Pick: Sterling by Decision (+175, 0.5u)
Get +262 odds with 50% boost at DK


NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.

Bantamweight fight: Raphael Assuncao vs. Cody Garbrandt

Assuncao odds +120
Garbrandt odds -148
Over/Under 2.5 (-125/-106)

Crowdsourced Projection: Cody Garbrandt (65%)

Former Bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt makes his return to the octagon following a 15-month hiatus, after suffering his third-consecutive knockout loss in the span of 18-months as a -200 favorite against Pedro Munhoz.

After defeating Dominick Cruz in his first title fight, to move to 11-0 in December 2016, Garbrandt was on top of the world and looked like a potentially transcendent MMA superstar; it’s incredible how quickly the narrative can change.

Garbrandt is an incredibly technical striker and sound defensive wrestler who has never been taken down in his UFC career. He has significant power and speed advantage over Assuncao, who has looked to be in decline over his past two fights, and I’m uncertain what the Brazilian has left at the age of 37.

The only question for Garbrandt is his chin – and whether he has healed after his substantial break from fighting. Seemingly, the public expects Garbrandt to get stopped with Assucano listed at +400 by KO or TKO, and +1000 by decision.

He only has four career knockouts, however, and one since 2012. If Garbrandt goes to sleep from Assuncao’s power, he might as well retire.

A bet on Garbrandt is a bet on a fighter who hasn’t won in four years – but the matchup and the price both look right.

Garbrandt by KO/TKO (+125) is the favorite under winning method, but I prefer Garbrandt by decision (+250) – as Assuncao has only been stopped once in his career – back in 2011.

Over 2.5 rounds (-125) is worth considering, but I’m just going to back Garbrandt on the moneyline and watch the fireworks:

Pick: Garbrandt to win (-148, 1u)
Get +101 odds with 50% boost at DK


NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.

Women’s Featherweight fight: Amanda Nunes vs. Felicia Spencer

Nunes odds -625
Spencer odds +450
Over/Under 1.5 (-200/+150)

Crowdsourced Projection: Amanda Nunes (89%)

If you want a more in-depth analysis of the main event, check out my full fight preview. 

In short, Felicia Spencer showed a lot of toughness and determination in her fight with Cris Cyborg, continuing to come forward and press the classier fighter for three rounds while taking a beating.

While Nunes has significantly more power than Cyborg and represents a more stringent test in a five-round fight, I have to go against the grain and look at Nunes by decision (+300).

We saw a higher percentage of stoppages last Saturday in the smaller 25-foot cage than we would typically see in the 30-foot octagon — and Nunes will undoubtedly be able to land some big shots during the fight.

But if Spencer can survive the first round, there’s a strong chance that this fight does go to the scorecards – as Nunes has shown a tendency to gas out after winning the early rounds before grappling with her opponent until the clock runs out.

While I’m unwilling to lay significant juice (-200) on over 1.5 rounds, Nunes by decision (+300) is the most appealing prop bet on the board.

I’ll also be using Nunes as a parlay piece.

Nunes vs. Spencer Bets

  • Amanda Nunes by Decision +300 (1 unit)

UFC 250 PROMOS! Bet Amanda Nunes at +500 odds to win, boosted from -600!

Zerillo’s UFC Fight Night Bets

  • Devin Clark by Decision +350 (0.5 units)
  • Clark / Menifield, Over 1.5 Rounds (+105, 0.5 units)
  • Chase Hooper -190 (1 unit)
  • Sean O’Malley by KO/TKO/DQ (-121, 0.5 units)
  • Neil Magny -136 (1 unit)
  • Aljamain Sterling by Decision +175 (0.5 units)
  • Cody Garbrandt -148 (1 unit)
  • Amanda Nunes by Decision +300 (1 unit)
  • Parlay: Chase Hooper / Sean O’Malley / Amanda Nunes (+114, 0.5 units)

UFC 250 PROMOS! Bet Amanda Nunes at +500 odds, boosted from -600!

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