UFC 262 Matt Schnell vs. Rogerio Bontorin Odds, Pick & Prediction: Which Fighter to Bet Live (Saturday, May 15)

UFC 262 Matt Schnell vs. Rogerio Bontorin Odds, Pick & Prediction: Which Fighter to Bet Live (Saturday, May 15) article feature image

Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC fighter Matt Schnell.

  • Matt Schnell and Rogerio Bontorin will go head-to-head Saturday on the main card at UFC 262.
  • Bontorin is replacing Alex Perez on short notice, but did not make weight entering the fight.
  • Sean Zerillo explains why that puts a ton of value on Schnell during the fight.

Matt Schnell vs. Rogerio Bontorin Odds

Schnell Odds
Bontorin Odds
2.5 (-115 / -115)
Toyota Center
Approx. 11 p.m. ET
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

A pair of ranked flyweight contenders will make the walk as bantamweights on Saturday when No. 8 flyweight Matt Schnell faces No. 9 Rogerio Bontorin.

Bontorin is returning from a first-round knockout loss against Kai-Kara France in March and searching for his first win since August 2019. Schnell is looking for his sixth victory in his past seven bouts and hoping to follow up strong after scoring a win over Tyson Nam in January.

Below I preview the matchup and odds for Saturday's fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate.

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Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time7:469:30
Weight (pounds)125 lbs.125 lbs.
Reach (inches)70"67"
Date of birth1/15/19904/25/1992
Sig Strikes Per Min4.202.19
SS Accuracy36%50%
SS Absorbed Per Min4.023.12
SS Defense62%38%
Take Down Avg0.481.90
TD Acc33%40%
TD Def53%51%
Submission Avg1.21.6

Bontorin is replacing Alex Perez on short notice and didn't have to cut the extra 10 pounds to the Flyweight limit, but he still failed to make weight for Saturday's contest, and Schnell will receive a percentage of his fight purse.

I had initially suspected that the extra 10 pounds would benefit Bontorin more than Schnell — the Brazilian typically has poor cardio late in fights and will try to be the more physical man in the octagon — however, a poor weight cut certainly disqualifies that argument.

Similarly, there are lingering concerns regarding Schnell's chin, and Bontorin hits hard. While Schnell does his best work on the mat, Bontorin has made improvements to his offensive wrestling and he should be able to clamp on to Schnell and win the first round.

After the opening minutes, I would expect Bontorin to tire, however, and for Schnell to win more minutes in a stand-up contest (+0.18 to -0.92 strike differential) with his improved boxing.

A combined 29 of the 40 pro fights between this pair have ended inside the distance, so a finish on either side is certainly live.

Schnell vs. Bontorin Pick

I projected Schnell as a 58% favorite in this contest, so I don't see value on either side of the moneyline.

Had Bontorin made weight without issue, I likely would have picked him to win the matchup as an underdog — though I doubt I would have placed a bet either way.

Blindly, I do lean to the under 2.5, but I don't see value on the distance prop (projected +115, listed -105), so I cannot make a play there, either. Additionally, I don't see enough value on Schnell by decision (projected +186, listed +190) to play that prop either.

Given the weight cut issue for Bontorin and his historical struggles with cardio, I would target Schnell at plus-money in the live market after Round 1.

The Pick: Matt Schnell live after Round 1

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