UFC 279 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Irene Aldana vs. Macy Chiasson: Take the Better Striker on Moneyline (Saturday, September 10)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Irene Aldana
- Irene Aldana and Macy Chiasson are both on solid runs in the UFC women's bantamweight division.
- They now meet in a 140-pound catchweight fight as part of the UFC 279 main card.
- Sean Zerillo has a straight moneyline play for the fight.
Irene Aldana vs. Macy Chiasson Odds
Striker Irene Aldana goes for her fourth win in five fights when she takes on scrappy bantamweight Macy Chiasson on the UFC 279 main card.
With her technical boxing game, Aldana is set as a sizeable favorite in this fight. However, Chiasson, who's also on a 3-1 run, will look to play spoiler for the third straight bout.
Let's look at this key women's matchup, which will be contested at a prearranged catchweight of 140 pounds.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||13:47||10:34|
|Weight (pounds)||135 lbs.||135 lbs.|
|Date of birth||3/26/1988||7/27/1991|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||5.61||3.70|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||5.94||2.56|
|Take Down Avg||0.22||1.95|
Aldana will be the smaller fighter in the cage against Chiasson, who is 2 inches taller with a four-inch reach advantage.
While Chiasson is the longer fighter, she’s better at using her long limbs to tie up opponents in the clinch rather than making the most of her reach in striking range.
Adana is the far more technical fighter and the much cleaner striker. Chiasson may need to land takedowns from the clinch to win (5.9 attempts per 15 minutes, 33% accuracy).
While Aldana has strong takedown defense (84% career) she could get bullied against the fence by a larger opponent, and I’m moderately concerned that she will struggle to get her back off the cage.
Still, Aldana should have severe cardio, speed, and volume advantages, and I expect her to land more damage on the feet.
Aldana knows Kunitskaya is going to respond to everything by rushing in. She feints the right in order to load up the left. That draws out Kunitskaya's guard, and then Irene walks her into a peach of a left hook. Love it pic.twitter.com/gt6RMZG2r7
— King Typo (@BoxingBusch) July 12, 2021
If Chiasson can’t keep Aldana against the fence – or land takedowns – she may have difficulty keeping up with her opponent’s speed and technique. Still, she is reliable to grapple, and I expect her to fight an optimal game plan, even if she isn’t successful with it.
Aldana vs. Chiasson Pick
That said, I project value on the Aldana side of the matchup, and I’m happy to bet her moneyline up to -183 (64.7% implied) at a 2% edge compared to my number.
I also show value on the Over, or the Fight to Go the Distance (projected -200, listed -170 at Caesars) and on Aldana to win by decision (projected +131, listed +148 at BetRivers).
However, I will stick with Aldana’s moneyline for this fight. Chiasson has shown concerning cardio down the stretch of her matchups – continually getting tagged in the third round – and Aldana carries significant power in her hands.
The Pick: Irene Aldana (-165, 0.5u at Caesars)