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UFC 279 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jailton Almeida vs. Anton Turkalj: How to Find Value in 220-pound Mismatch (Saturday, September 10)

UFC 279 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jailton Almeida vs. Anton Turkalj: How to Find Value in 220-pound Mismatch (Saturday, September 10) article feature image
Credit:

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC heavyweight Jailton Almeida

  • Jailton Almeida is the biggest favorite at UFC 279, and he meets late replacement Anton Turkal.
  • The 220-pound catchweight fight is part of Almeida's move from light heavyweight to heavyweight.
  • Sean Zerillo explains why he likes the favorite to win by knockout.

Jailton Almeida vs. Anton Turkalj Odds

Almeida Odds
-650
Turkalj Odds
+450
Over/Under
1.5 (+135 / -190)
Venue
T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
Time
9 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPNews
Odds as of Friday and via BetMGM.

Will Jailton Almeida make another successful step in his light heavyweight to heavyweight transition when he meets late replacement Anton Turkalj on the UFC 279 preliminary card?

Almeida needs to look every bit the major favorite when he takes on Turkalj, a fellow Contender Series alum, in their 220-pound catchweight affair.

Is Almeida the rightful heavy favorite, or is Turkalj a ‘dog who could bark with those those long odds?

Let’s dig in.

Tale of the Tape

Almeida Turkalj
Record 16-2 8-0
Avg. Fight Time 4:47 15:00
Height 6’3″ 6’4″
Weight (pounds) 205 lbs. 205 lbs.
Reach (inches) 79″ 78″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 6/26/1991 6/10/1996
Sig Strikes Per Min 3.48 1.40
SS Accuracy 53% 56%
SS Absorbed Per Min 0.49 1.27
SS Defense 12% 58%
Take Down Avg 6.27 11.00
TD Acc 66% 68%
TD Def 50% 0%
Submission Avg 2.1 0.0

Almeida has had nearly as dominant a run under the UFC banner as Khamzat Chimaev, with a quarter of the hype.

The Brazilian has recorded a trio of finishes while shutting out two of his opponents (zero significant strikes absorbed in his last two fights while displaying phenomenal grappling pressure).

Most recently he moved up to heavyweight and walked right through Parker Porter, despite a 40-pound weight discrepancy.

Jailton Almeida RNCs Parker Porter (5/21/22) pic.twitter.com/QkK0zzryrD

— Granby Roll (@ChillemDa4) May 23, 2022

Almeida expected to remain at heavyweight – to stay active – and was set to face Shamil Abdurakhimov on Saturday. But he’ll fight a short-notice replacement in Turkalj – a light heavyweight – at 220 pounds. The latter won a relatively uninspiring decision at a Contender Series event in July.

Turkalj prefers to grapple and may be out of his depth against a stronger athlete in Almeida. And the Brazilian certainly possesses the striking advantage if this fight stays on the feet.

Almeida vs. Turkalj Pick

While I don’t see value on either side of the moneyline or the total for this matchup, I like Almeida by KO/TKO (projected +295, listed +350 at BetRivers) as a winning method.

I projected Almeida’s inside the distance prop at -254, and you would need a number closer to that figure to consider playing his finish prop.

The knockout prop offers significantly more value; Almeida should have a severe striking advantage, and he can certainly land some vicious hammer fists on his grappling-oriented opponent.

The Pick: Jailton Almeida wins by KO/TKO (+350, 0.15u at BetRivers)

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