UFC 280 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Makhmud Muradov vs. Caio Borralho: Bet This Fighter Straight Up, via Submission, Live (Saturday, October 22)

UFC 280 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Makhmud Muradov vs. Caio Borralho: Bet This Fighter Straight Up, via Submission, Live (Saturday, October 22) article feature image

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC middleweight Caio Borralho

  • Makhmud Muradov and Caio Borralho fight on Saturday's UFC 280 preliminary card.
  • Both middleweights had experienced sustained runs of success heading into this bout.
  • Below, Sean Zerillo has a trio of betting angles for the intriguing matchup centered on one fighter.

Makhmud Muradov vs. Caio Borralho Odds

Muradov Odds
Borralho Odds
1.5 (-210 / +170)
Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi
1 p.m. ET
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

After recently snapping a 14-fight winning streak, Makhmud Muradov looks to get back on track with a UFC 280 preliminary-card bout against middleweight Caio Borralho.

However, Borralho, who's now 11 straight, is a solid favorite heading into this 185-pound matchup.

Can Muradov pull off the upset, or will Borralho keep his streak going?

Let's look at the matchup.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time12:1411:24
Weight (pounds)185 lbs.185 lbs.
Reach (inches)75"75"
Date of birth2/8/19901/16/1993
Sig Strikes Per Min5.392.72
SS Accuracy42%62%
SS Absorbed Per Min3.171.82
SS Defense61%61%
Take Down Avg0.312.63
TD Acc16%80%
TD Def80%75%
Submission Avg0.30.0

Borralho is one of the better prospects to come from the Contender Series. He offers a dominant grappling skillset with relentless pressure. And he rarely puts himself in danger.

He should have a clear grappling advantage against Muradov, and I expect him to have success landing takedowns. Borralho keeps an exhausting pace, and he should wear on and eventually finish Muradov in the second half of the fight, as Muradov eventually tires.

If Muradov can keep the fight standing, he should have a clear striking advantage. He has tighter hands and slicker combinations, and he could pick apart Borralho in extended exchanges. Still, Borralho rarely stays at striking range with his opponents; he is too adept at wrapping them up, taking them to the mat, and holding them there.

Muradov vs. Borralho Pick

I project value in Borralho by submission (projected +322, listed +450 at BetRivers) and will sprinkle that bet. Ideally, I'd get his moneyline at -190 or better.

I'm OK with a play at -200, though, and will add more either pre-fight or live at a better price.

The Pick: Caio Borralho (-200, 0.25u at Caesars), bet to -200 | Borralho wins by Submission (+450, 0.1u at BetRivers), bet to +361 | Borralho Live after Round 1

The must-have app for UFC bettors

The best UFC betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.