UFC 283 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira: Any Value in This Mismatch? (Saturday, January 21)

UFC 283 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira: Any Value in This Mismatch? (Saturday, January 21) article feature image

Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: UFC middleweight of Gregory Rodrigues of Brazil

  • Oddsmakers favor Gregory Rodrigues in his all-Brazilian matchup with Brunno Ferreira at UFC 283 on Saturday.
  • This prelim fight has drawn a lot of interest, largely due to "Robocop" Rodrigues' usual fast starts in fights.
  • That's one reason Sean Zerillo is taking a cautious approach to betting this middleweight fight.

Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira Odds

Rodrigues Odds
Ferreira Odds
1.5 (+155 / -190)
Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro
9 p.m. ET
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

Two Brazilians meet in a middleweight preliminary-card bout with Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira at UFC 283.

Rodrigues, who's on a 6-1 run, is a sizable favorite over Ferreira, who steps in for injured Brad Tavares.

Let's dig into the matchup.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time8:231:35
Weight (pounds)185 lbs.185 lbs.
Reach (inches)75"72"
Date of birth2/17/199211/4/1992
Sig Strikes Per Min6.1910.11
SS Accuracy55%61%
SS Absorbed Per Min5.876.32
SS Defense51%50%
Take Down Avg2.390.0
TD Acc50%0%
TD Def100%100%
Submission Avg0.60.0

Rodrigues, aka "Robocop," has become one of the best action fighters in the middleweight division. And he's also one of the most resilient fighters on the roster, fighting through an injury in his last bout with which you could see inside his skull.

While he'll be the much bigger fighter in the cage (four inches taller, three-inch reach advantage) and offers substantial grappling upside, Rodrigues tends to engage in high-variance brawls.

That makes his his moneyline unplayable in its current price range.

Rodrigues vs. Ferreira Pick

If Rodrigues decides to grapple proactively, he could justify that pricetag.

Still, he tends to start his fights swinging with opponents – which is exactly what Ferreira, a dangerous power puncher, wants from his opponents.

I don't trust the cardio or durability of either fighter. As a result, I expect to see a finish on either side.

I don't project value on this fight from any betting perspective – moneyline, total, or prop – so we'll move on.

The Pick: Pass

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