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UFC 283 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira: Any Value in This Mismatch? (Saturday, January 21)

UFC 283 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira: Any Value in This Mismatch? (Saturday, January 21) article feature image
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Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: UFC middleweight of Gregory Rodrigues of Brazil

  • Oddsmakers favor Gregory Rodrigues in his all-Brazilian matchup with Brunno Ferreira at UFC 283 on Saturday.
  • This prelim fight has drawn a lot of interest, largely due to "Robocop" Rodrigues' usual fast starts in fights.
  • That's one reason Sean Zerillo is taking a cautious approach to betting this middleweight fight.

Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira Odds

Rodrigues Odds
-305
Ferreira Odds
+255
Over/Under
1.5 (+155 / -190)
Venue
Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro
Time
9 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN and ABC
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

Two Brazilians meet in a middleweight preliminary-card bout with Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira at UFC 283.

Rodrigues, who’s on a 6-1 run, is a sizable favorite over Ferreira, who steps in for injured Brad Tavares.

Let’s dig into the matchup.

Tale of the Tape

Rodrigues Ferreira
Record 13-4 9-0
Avg. Fight Time 8:23 1:35
Height 6’3″ 5’10”
Weight (pounds) 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach (inches) 75″ 72″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 2/17/1992 11/4/1992
Sig Strikes Per Min 6.19 10.11
SS Accuracy 55% 61%
SS Absorbed Per Min 5.87 6.32
SS Defense 51% 50%
Take Down Avg 2.39 0.0
TD Acc 50% 0%
TD Def 100% 100%
Submission Avg 0.6 0.0

Rodrigues, aka “Robocop,” has become one of the best action fighters in the middleweight division. And he’s also one of the most resilient fighters on the roster, fighting through an injury in his last bout with which you could see inside his skull.

While he’ll be the much bigger fighter in the cage (four inches taller, three-inch reach advantage) and offers substantial grappling upside, Rodrigues tends to engage in high-variance brawls.

That makes his his moneyline unplayable in its current price range.

Rodrigues vs. Ferreira Pick

If Rodrigues decides to grapple proactively, he could justify that pricetag.

Still, he tends to start his fights swinging with opponents – which is exactly what Ferreira, a dangerous power puncher, wants from his opponents.

I don’t trust the cardio or durability of either fighter. As a result, I expect to see a finish on either side.

I don’t project value on this fight from any betting perspective – moneyline, total, or prop – so we’ll move on.

The Pick: Pass

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