UFC 284 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jack Della Maddalena vs. Randy Brown: 3 Bets for the Underdog (Saturday, February 11)

UFC 284 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jack Della Maddalena vs. Randy Brown: 3 Bets for the Underdog (Saturday, February 11) article feature image

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC welterweight Randy Brown of Jamaica

  • Jack Della Maddalena looks to continue his quick ascent in the UFC with a fight against Randy Brown.
  • It's part of Saturday's UFC 284 pay-per-view main card, where Della Maddalena is a big favorite.
  • Sean Zerillo looks at the matchup and offers a variety of betting angles, including one with +1300 odds.

Jack Della Maddalena vs. Randy Brown Odds

Della Maddalena Odds
Brown Odds
2.5 (+115 / -145)
RAC Arena in Perth, Australia
11 p.m. ET
ESPN+ Pay-per-view
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

A fast-rising welterweight meets a veteran of the division when Jack Della Maddalena and Randy Brown clash on the UFC 284 main card.

Maddalena looks for his fourth straight UFC win and third consecutive Performance of the Night bonus when he meets heavy underdog Brown, who's won four straight.

Let's look at the matchup and identify some bets.

Tale of the Tape

Della MaddalenaBrown
Avg. Fight Time5:5910:53
Weight (pounds)170 lbs.170 lbs.
Reach (inches)73"78"
Date of birth9/10/19967/8/1990
Sig Strikes Per Min8.454.38
SS Accuracy50%48%
SS Absorbed Per Min4.223.25
SS Defense67%54%
Take Down Avg0.000.69
TD Acc0%33%
TD Def71%71%
Submission Avg0.00.6

Local product Maddalena hopes to delight fans and deliver a fourth consecutive first-round knockout on Saturday. The Contender Series alum has shown incredibly slick boxing and timing with underrated power at the UFC level.

Still, he’ll receive a significant step up in competition on Saturday against “Rudeboy” Brown, who will own significant advantages in height (four inches) and reach (five inches) and all of the grappling upside.

Moreover, while Brown represents the most difficult test of Maddalena’s career, you can’t say the same for Brown, who has faced top-15-caliber competition for the past six years.

Still, Brown has some poor defensive tendencies, which could get him in trouble here. He tends to back himself up to the fence and rely on head movement – rather than blocking – to avoid strikes. Maddalena throws extended combinations and could catch Brown toward the end of those longer combos, particularly on his long torso.

Jack Della Maddalena has beautiful boxing pic.twitter.com/bkkczkLe5z

— Bloody Elbow (@BloodyElbow) February 9, 2023

Although Maddalena’s boxing is aesthetic, he’s also fairly one-dimensional as an MMA fighter. He doesn’t throw a ton of kicks or mix in any grappling, and his defensive technique and skill both up against the fence in the clinch and flat on his back on the canvas are relatively untested at this level.

While Brown doesn’t always proactively grapple (two takedown attempts per 15 minutes, 33% accuracy) – since he’s such a smooth and entertaining striker – his easiest path to victory in this fight may be to hold Maddalena up against the fence in the clinch or try to take him down and control him for multiple rounds.

Della Maddalena vs. Brown Pick

Brown may look like a favorite if he grapples from the outset, and I certainly see value in his submission prop (listed +1300 at FanDuel, projected +912) or inside the distance prop (projected +506, listed +700 at FanDuel).

Furthermore, I’m not confident that Maddalena is more durable than Brown. Maddalena was knocked out regionally and wobbled on several occasions. And Brown hits much harder than his knockout odds (+1200 around the market) would indicate.

While I expect to see a finish in this matchup, I can’ bet into that market (projected -201, listed -200 to end inside the distance).

However, you can bet Brown down to around +225 (30.7% implied) prefight, with smaller sprinkles on his inside the distance and submission props.

If Maddalena doesn’t score an early knockout, Brown will be much more competitive – and live for a finish – than his odds suggest. He’s tall, long,  versatile, and awkward to win clean minutes against.

The Picks: Randy Brown (+265, 0.5u at DraftKings) | Brown wins Inside the Distance (+700, 0.1u at FanDuel) | Brown wins by Submission (+1300, 0.1u at WynnBet)

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