UFC 284 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jamie Mullarkey vs. Francisco Prado: 3 Ways to Bet the Fave (Saturday, February 11)

UFC 284 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jamie Mullarkey vs. Francisco Prado: 3 Ways to Bet the Fave (Saturday, February 11) article feature image

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC lightweight Jamie Mullarkey of Australia

  • Jamie Mullarkey welcomes Francisco Prado to the UFC as part of Saturday night's UFC 284.
  • Mullarkey is sizable favorite in the preliminary-card fight.
  • Below, Sean Zerillo discusses his three favorite betting angles for the lightweight fight.

Jamie Mullarkey vs. Francisco Prado Odds

Mullarkey Odds
Prado Odds
1.5 (-182 / +142)
RAC Arena in Perth, Australia
8 p.m. ET
Odds as of FanDuel and via Friday.

Jamie Mullarkey will welcome UFC newcomer Francisco Prado to the octagon as part of the UFC 284 preliminary card.

Mullarkey is a heavy favorite over youngster Prado, who's a bit of a wild card when it comes to handicapping this lightweight fight.

Let's dig into this matchup.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time9:54n/a
Weight (pounds)155 lbs.155 lbs.
Reach (inches)74"69"
Date of birth8/17/19946/16/2002
Sig Strikes Per Min4.180.00
SS Accuracy43%0%
SS Absorbed Per Min4.880.00
SS Defense53%0%
Take Down Avg2.530.00
TD Acc30%0%
TD Def66%0%
Submission Avg0.20.0

Prado is a raw UFC debutant with a 100% finish rate – an archetype that typically falters and fades when extended against better-caliber opponents at the UFC level.

Conversely, Mullarkey is a slow starter whose pace and momentum build the longer his fights go.

Mullarkey puts opponents through the grinder, wears them down, and increases his chances of winning the later rounds of his fights.

WHAT. A. COMEBACK 😳 @jamie_mullarkey melted him at #UFCVegas38pic.twitter.com/T0Y43hcz4w

— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) October 2, 2021

If Prado cannot land an early knockout in this matchup, Mullarkey should be able to drown him with cardio and grappling and eventually find a finish in the latter stages of the fight.

He could also win a wide decision with a potential 10-8 round.

Mullarkey vs. Prado Pick

While I considered betting Mullarkey and the Over 1.5 Rounds in an SGP (+130 at DraftKings), I find the odds far more appealing on Mullarkey to win in Round 2 (+550 at FanDuel) or Round 3 (+1000 at FanDuel).

Moreover, you can look to live bet Mullarkey after Round 1 as Prado’s effectiveness starts to wane. And I would consider adding Mullarkey to a moneylineparlay at a break-even price (-265) or better. ‘

I expect the Aussie to proactively grapple and take advantage of Prado’s subpar takedown defense. He’s the bigger man (two inches taller, five-inch reach advantage), and I expect him to impose his will.

So, in addition to Mullarkey Live after Round 1, I'm on:

Pick: Jamie Mullarkey wins in Round 2 (+550)

Pick: Jamie Mullarkey wins in Round 3 (+1000)

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