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UFC 284 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Tyson Pedro vs. Modestas Bukauskas: A Lean and a Live Play (Saturday, February 11)

UFC 284 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Tyson Pedro vs. Modestas Bukauskas: A Lean and a Live Play (Saturday, February 11) article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC light heavyweight Modestas Bukauskas of Lithuania

  • Saturday's UFC 284 preliminary card concludes with Tyson Pedro vs. Modestas Bukauskas.
  • The light heavyweight bout features a big local favorite in Pedro.
  • Below, Sean Zerillo details why bettors may want to wait and live bet this fight.

Tyson Pedro vs. Modestas Bukauskas Odds

Pedro Odds
-250
Bukauskas Odds
+200
Over/Under
1.5 (-140 / +110)
Venue
RAC Arena in Perth, Australia
Time
9:30 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN and ESPN+
Odds as of Friday and via BetMGM.

The UFC 284 preliminary card concludes with a light heavyweight bout between Tyson Pedro and Modestas Bukauskas.

Pedro, who’s fighting at home, is a heavy favorite in this ESPN-televised fight.

Let’s break down the matchup and look at Pedro vs. Bukauskas betting angles.

Tale of the Tape

Pedro Bukauskas
Record 9-3 13-5
Avg. Fight Time 5:51 7:23
Height 6’3″ 6’3″
Weight (pounds) 205 lbs. 205 lbs.
Reach (inches) 79″ 78″
Stance Orthodox Switch
Date of birth 9/17/1991 2/10/1994
Sig Strikes Per Min 2.95 3.59
SS Accuracy 64% 37%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.35 4.54
SS Defense 51% 52%
Take Down Avg 0.64 0.00
TD Acc 25% 0%
TD Def 52% 100%
Submission Avg 1.3 0.0

After blowing out his leg on an oblique kick from Khalil Rountree in September 2021, Bukauskaus returned to the MMA scene in November and scored a pair of wins in Cage Warriors – including one for the light-heavyweight title – to earn his way back to the UFC.

He’ll face the hyped but relatively unchallenged Pedro – on short notice – to begin his second UFC stint. And will hope to fare better than Pedro’s last two opponents, who lost via first-round finish after Pedro returned from a lengthy layoff of his own.

Still, those were layup victories (as a -900 and -1000 favorite, respectively) against bottom-of-the-barrel talent. Bukauskaus, at least, represents a step up in competition and someone who can push Pedro in an extended fight.

Last time we were in Perth @Tyson_Pedro_ pulled off this absolutely incredible kimura submission 😮😮😮

He's back this weekend at #UFC284! pic.twitter.com/DbRa4qZbDO

— UFC_AUSNZ (@UFC_AUSNZ) February 7, 2023

Pedro likely has a grappling advantage here, but if he cannot consolidate an early finish or generate takedowns in multiple rounds, Bukauskas may be able to turn the momentum and generate a finishing sequence in the second or third round.


Pedro vs. Bukauskas Pick

Pedro has fallen apart in extended fights in the past – and never won a bout outside of Round 1.

In contrast, Bukauskas has proven championship-level cardio (two wins in the fourth round of title fights in Cage Warriors), which may be his best attribute.

I don’t see value in the moneyline, total or any winning method props for this matchup.

However, I would lean toward the Over 1.5 Rounds pre-fight and look to live bet Bukauskas after Round 1.

The Pick: Modestas Bukauskas Live after Round 1

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