UFC 284 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Tyson Pedro vs. Modestas Bukauskas: A Lean and a Live Play (Saturday, February 11)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC light heavyweight Modestas Bukauskas of Lithuania
- Saturday's UFC 284 preliminary card concludes with Tyson Pedro vs. Modestas Bukauskas.
- The light heavyweight bout features a big local favorite in Pedro.
- Below, Sean Zerillo details why bettors may want to wait and live bet this fight.
Tyson Pedro vs. Modestas Bukauskas Odds
The UFC 284 preliminary card concludes with a light heavyweight bout between Tyson Pedro and Modestas Bukauskas.
Pedro, who's fighting at home, is a heavy favorite in this ESPN-televised fight.
Let's break down the matchup and look at Pedro vs. Bukauskas betting angles.
Tale of the Tape
| Pedro | Bukauskas | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-3 | 13-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 5:51 | 7:23 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 79" | 78" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 9/17/1991 | 2/10/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.95 | 3.59 |
| SS Accuracy | 64% | 37% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.35 | 4.54 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 52% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.64 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 25% | 0% |
| TD Def | 52% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 1.3 | 0.0 |
After blowing out his leg on an oblique kick from Khalil Rountree in September 2021, Bukauskaus returned to the MMA scene in November and scored a pair of wins in Cage Warriors – including one for the light-heavyweight title – to earn his way back to the UFC.
He’ll face the hyped but relatively unchallenged Pedro – on short notice – to begin his second UFC stint. And will hope to fare better than Pedro’s last two opponents, who lost via first-round finish after Pedro returned from a lengthy layoff of his own.
Still, those were layup victories (as a -900 and -1000 favorite, respectively) against bottom-of-the-barrel talent. Bukauskaus, at least, represents a step up in competition and someone who can push Pedro in an extended fight.
Last time we were in Perth @Tyson_Pedro_ pulled off this absolutely incredible kimura submission 😮😮😮
He's back this weekend at #UFC284! pic.twitter.com/DbRa4qZbDO
— UFC_AUSNZ (@UFC_AUSNZ) February 7, 2023
Pedro likely has a grappling advantage here, but if he cannot consolidate an early finish or generate takedowns in multiple rounds, Bukauskas may be able to turn the momentum and generate a finishing sequence in the second or third round.
Pedro vs. Bukauskas Pick
Pedro has fallen apart in extended fights in the past – and never won a bout outside of Round 1.
In contrast, Bukauskas has proven championship-level cardio (two wins in the fourth round of title fights in Cage Warriors), which may be his best attribute.
I don’t see value in the moneyline, total or any winning method props for this matchup.
However, I would lean toward the Over 1.5 Rounds pre-fight and look to live bet Bukauskas after Round 1.
The Pick: Modestas Bukauskas Live after Round 1
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