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UFC 286 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Muhammad Mokaev vs. Jafel Filho: Any Value With Hefty -850 Favorite? (Saturday, March 18)

UFC 286 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Muhammad Mokaev vs. Jafel Filho: Any Value With Hefty -850 Favorite? (Saturday, March 18) article feature image

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC flyweight Muhammad Mokaev of England

Muhammad Mokaev vs. Jafel Filho Odds

Mokaev Odds -820
Filho Odds +570
Over/Under 2.5 (+120 / -154)
Venue The O2 Arena in London
Time 3 p.m. ET
Channel ESPNews and ESPN+
Odds as of Saturday and via FanDuel

In a preliminary card bout at UFC 286 on Saturday, Muhammad Mokaev squares off against Jafel Filho.

One of the biggest pound-for-pound prospects in the UFC, Mokaev looks to keep his perfect 9-0 record intact against the 14-2 Filho.

Here’s a look at the odds, as well as my Mokaev vs. Filho pick, for this ESPNews-televised prelim.

Tale of the Tape

Mokaev Filho
Record 9-0 14-2
Avg. Fight Time 10:08 11:31
Height 5’7″ 5’7″
Weight (pounds) 125 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach (inches) 70″ 68″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 7/30/2000 5/5/1993
Sig Strikes Per Min 1.15 2.52
SS Accuracy 54% 42%
SS Absorbed Per Min 0.99 2.95
SS Defense 53% 46%
Take Down Avg 8.88 2.60
TD Acc 54% 28%
TD Def 0% 100%
Submission Avg 1.0 1.3

One of the fastest risers in MMA, Mokaev looks to continue his utter dominance of anyone who crosses his path. The 22-year-old is 9-0 with four submission victories.

A grappling specialist, Mokaev is a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and has destroyed his opponents on the ground through his first three UFC scraps. Over that span, he averages an absurd 8.9 takedowns per 15 minutes at 54% accuracy.

Mokaev is relentless when shooting for takedowns, which he can get away with because of his youth and stamina. Once on the mat, there is little anyone can do against him, which is why he boasts two submission victories over his last three fights.

There is a reason why Mokaev is laying nearly eight dollars on the moneyline, making him the largest favorite on this card by far. No offense to Filho, a capable Contender Series alum, but these two guys are just miles apart in terms of ability.

Hailing out of Brazil, Filho also typically prefers to spend fights on the mat, which has led to a successful 14-2 start to his professional career. However, he has yet to face anyone of any notoriety at the professional level, and he has now been thrown into the fire by making his UFC debut against one of the biggest prospects in the sport.

Mokaev vs. Filho Pick

It will be interesting to see what Filho’s game plan is for this fight. Typically preferring to grapple, Filho may choose to try to stay on the feet against the relentless Mokaev.

However, considering Mokaev’s ability, will Filho stick to what has gotten him to this point and accept this fight as a wrestling/grappling match? Whichever route Filho chooses to fight, I do not think it will matter as Mokaev’s takedowns just can not be stopped.

If you want to bet on the -770 favorite, we should probably look at the prop market. I think the most likely place that this scrap takes place is on the mat, and considering Mokaev’s submission ability and the fact Filho has tapped out at the professional level before, Mokaev via submission at plus-money is my favorite play for this scrap.

Pick: Muhammad Mokaev via submission (+125)

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