UFC 291 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jake Matthews vs. Darrius Flowers: Value on Underdog (Saturday, July 29)

UFC 291 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jake Matthews vs. Darrius Flowers: Value on Underdog (Saturday, July 29) article feature image

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC welterweight Darrius Flowers

Jake Matthews vs. Darrius Flowers Odds

Matthews Odds
Flowers Odds
1.5 rounds (-125 / -105)
Delta Center in Salt Lake City
Start Time
8 p.m. ET
Odds as of Saturday evening and via DraftKings

The consistently inconsistent Jake Matthews is a big favorite as he meets replacement opponent Darrius Flowers on the UFC 291 regular preliminary card.

Once an emerging contender, Matthews now looks to snap out of a 1-2 skid when he meets Flowers, an LFA and Contender Series vet who has an opportunity at UFC 291 to make a statement.

Matthews is expected to win, according to the betting market, so the pressure's on him to deliver.

Is it a good bet, though?

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time11:241:13
Weight (pounds)170 lbs.170.5 lbs.
Reach (inches)73"71"
Date of birth8/19/19948/25/1994
Sig Strikes Per Min3.090.82
SS Accuracy44%100%
SS Absorbed Per Min2.241.64
SS Defense61%33%
Take Down Avg1.780.0
TD Acc41%0%
TD Def60%100%
Submission Avg0.60.0

The Australian Matthews has proven extremely enigmatic at the UFC level, with his skill level and overall quality varying significantly from one fight to the next.

Matthews is rarely trustworthy as a favorite but always tempting as an underdog, and seeing a -300 price tag next to his name on Saturday – after getting knocked down three times in his last fight – should catch your attention.

Flowers is making his debut after earning a contract on Contender Series.

He's the smaller man in the fight (two-inch discrepancy in height and reach) but arguably carries more power, which could test Matthews' suspect chin.

Additionally, while Matthews may have the grappling advantage, Flowers is reliable to change levels and shoot takedowns, a well-rounded strategy that could create openings for his strikes.

However, Matthews should have a significant grappling advantage. And it may be unwise for Flowers to shoot in recklessly or he could stick his neck into a front choke.

Matthews vs. Flowers Pick

I projected Flowers closer to +210 in this fight

With his moneyline floating past +220, I'm inclined to take a small shot on the underdog Flowers.

However, I don't see value in the total or any winning method props for this fight.

The Pick: Darrius Flowers (+225, 0.25u) at DraftKings

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