UFC 291 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Roman Kopylov vs. Claudio Ribeiro: Play This Value Parlay (Saturday, July 29)

UFC 291 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Roman Kopylov vs. Claudio Ribeiro: Play This Value Parlay (Saturday, July 29) article feature image

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC middleweight Roman Kopylov of Russia

Roman Kopylov vs. Claudio Ribeiro Odds

Kopylov Odds
Ribeiro Odds
1.5 rounds (-135 / +105)
Delta Center in Salt Lake City
8:30 p.m. ET
Odds as of Saturday evening and via DraftKings

Roman Kopylov looks for his third straight knockout victory when he meets Claudio Ribeiro on the UFC 291 regular preliminary card on Saturday night.

Kopylov, who's now posted stoppages in his past nine straight wins, should get a willing dance partner in fellow middleweight Ribeiro, who's posted all 11 of his career victories via KO.

Let's break it down.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time12:074:45
Weight (pounds)185 lbs.185.5 lbs.
Reach (inches)75"77"
Date of birth5/4/19917/17/1992
Sig Strikes Per Min4.544.22
SS Accuracy50%60%
SS Absorbed Per Min3.962.39
SS Defense60%38%
Take Down Avg0.621.05
TD Acc50%100%
TD Def89%75%
Submission Avg0.00.0

It might be challenging to justify Koplyov – a boxer with good body kicks – as a significant favorite in a matchup against Ribeiro, who carries considerable power and has grappling upside.

However, the projection model thinks the pricing is fair and that the fight is correctly lined across the board – in terms of the moneyline, total, and winning-method props.

I would need something closer to +200 to back the underdog, Ribeiro, whose striking defense (38%) is a significant liability.

Roman Kopylov has knocked out his last two opponents including a win over a tough Puna Soriano ⚔️

Kopylov faces Claudio Ribeiro in a clash of middleweights on the prelims of #UFC291

(✍️: @elchampchamp) pic.twitter.com/xY7MNu23sF

— Combat Sports Today 📰 (@CSTodayNews) July 26, 2023

Kopylov mixes up his combinations well to both the head and body, and he can put attritional damage on and wear down opponents.

And he has continually improved his defensive grappling throughout his four-fight UFC run.

Ribeiro likely needs to land takedowns or one big impactful strike to win this fight.

Otherwise, Kopylov seems likely to pick him apart on the feet and potentially put Ribeiro away late after plenty of bodywork.

Neither fighter has shown great cardio in prior bouts, and sending the pair to Utah could create sloppy exchanges if this fight extends beyond 10 minutes.

Still, I trust Kopylov's tenacity and experience down the stretch; Ribeiro's limited technique falls apart as he tires.

Kopylov vs. Ribeiro Pick

We'll lean into the cardio dynamic – and the elevation here – and bet an SGP with Kopylov and the Over 1.5 Rounds (+150 at DraftKings).

Alternatively, you could sprinkle Kopylov to win in Round 2 (+450) and Round 3 (+900).

Still, I would prefer to encapsulate his decision equity in what could be a sloppy affair.

The Pick: SGP (+150, 0.25u) at DraftKings: Kopylov & Over 1.5 Rounds

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