UFC 292 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Brad Katona vs. Cody Gibson: Bet Underdog in TUF 31 Bantamweight Finale (Saturday, August 19)

UFC 292 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Brad Katona vs. Cody Gibson: Bet Underdog in TUF 31 Bantamweight Finale (Saturday, August 19) article feature image

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. PIctured: UFC bantamweight Cody Gibson

Brad Katona vs. Cody Gibson Odds

Katona Odds
Gibson Odds
2.5 rounds (-270 / +210)
TD Garden in Boston
8 p.m. ET
Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via bet365

Brad Katona vs. Cody Gibson will determine the bantamweight winner of The Ultimate Fighter 31 when they clash on the UFC 292 preliminary card on Saturday.

Katona, who won TUF 27 as a featherweight in 2018, could become a two-time TUF winner if he can beat underdog Gibson, who's 7-2 with a pair of regional titles since his first UFC stint ended in 2015.

Who's likely to win the TUF 31 tourney and ensure another UFC run by winning the reality-TV competition?

Here's our Katona vs. Gibson betting preview for UFC 292.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time15:0010:09
Weight135 pounds135 pounds
Reach64 inches71 inches
Date of birth12/19/19919/11/1987
Sig Strikes Per Minute3.332.47
SS Accuracy51%31%
SS Absorbed Per Minute2.982.54
SS Defense57%63%
Take Down Avg1.251.85
TD Acc22%38%
TD Def47%58%
Submission Avg0.00.4

I played the underdogs in both tournament finals for TUF 31, and we'll hope to go 1-1 at worst across those plus-money bets against two relatively similar favorites.

Katona is a point fighter (8-2 in decisions across 14 career fights) with a well-rounded skill set, excellent cardio, good durability and solid fight IQ.

The bantamweight spends much time searching for ways to get into superior positions against his opponents and looks to kill the clock from there.

Cody Gibson is the much bigger athlete (four inches taller, seven-inch reach advantage) and far more potent striker in a fight favored by the market to reach a decision.

Across a 15-minute fight, I anticipate the judges to prefer Gibson's damaging shots over Katona's positional control and peppering volume unless Katona completely dominates clinching and wrestling a much larger opponent.

Katona vs. Gibson Pick

Unfortunately, Gibson's line moved about 20 cents since I bet him before Friday's weigh-in, and I'm not sure I can recommend betting Gibson below +150 (projected +139).

However, I also show value in the fight to reach a decision (projected -220, listed -176 at FanDuel) and on Gibson to win by decision (projected +290, listed +400 at FanDuel).

I would bet the former straight to -200 and include the latter in a round-robin.

The Pick: Cody Gibson (+152, 0.5u at FanDuel) | Katona vs. Gibson goes to decision (-176, 0.25u at FanDuel)

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.