UFC 297 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Neil Magny vs. Mike Malott: Gatekeeper Can Shut Door Against Canadian Prospect (Saturday, January 20)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC welterweight Mike Malott
Neil Magny vs. Mike Malott Odds
| 11 p.m. ET | |
Here's everything you need to know about Neil Magny vs. Mike Malott at UFC 297 on Saturday, Jan. 20 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
A veteran of the welterweight rankings, Neil Magny is forced back into a bit of a gatekeeper role as he meets surging prospect Mike Malott on the UFC 297 main card.
Malott is 10-1-1 – with stoppages in all of his wins. But now he faces the UFC 170-pound division's all-time wins leader.
Here's a look at the Magny vs. Malott odds and betting pick.
Tale of the Tape
| Magny | Malott | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 28-12 | 10-1-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:40 | 5:56 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'1" |
| Weight | 170.75 pounds | 170.5 pounds |
| Reach (inches) | 80" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/3/1987 | 11/7/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.45 | 4.21 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 42% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.22 | 2.53 |
| TD Acc | 40% | 55% |
| TD Def | 55% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 1.5 |
With a PPV card in Toronto, the UFC will do its best to highlight its top Canadian prospects, led by Ontario native Malott, who is 4-0 under the promotional banner with each of those wins in seven minutes or less while earning consecutive performance bonuses.
Malott will face his stiffest test to date in Magny, a veteran gatekeeper at welterweight who has turned away fraudulent prospects throughout more than 30 fights under the promotional banner.
While Magny appears on the back end of his career – and has shown declining physicality in his recent matchups – he owns a seven-inch reach advantage in this fight, is the much better technical striker, and likely has superior cardio.
Malott is the better grappler and will look to expose Magny's subpar takedown defense (55%).
However, if he doesn't finish the fight within the first half, Malott may fade down the stretch and allow the underdog to rally.
(Yo Tarheels: With North Carolina sports betting coming online this year, you’ll soon be able to bet legally on UFC events at major sportsbooks. Learn more.)
Magny vs. Malott Pick
I projected Magny closer to +280 and view him as the value side of this fight, with the market currently at +300 or better.
However, Magny doesn't have the power to keep Malott off him early.
I'm interested in taking a live shot on the underdog, but it isn't easy to imagine a scenario in which you don't find a better live price on Magny after Round 1.
He needs to survive the early onslaught, stay safe on the bottom for the first five to seven minutes, and look to return to his feet and swing the momentum of the fight by the end of the second round.
In addition to his moneyline, I show slight value on Magny by decision (projected +487, listed +540) or the fight to reach a decision (projected +182, listed +205); still, I'd prefer the live entry, or I'd target Magny's Round 2 (+2400) or Round 3 (+2800) props pre-fight.
However, if I'm betting anything pre-fight, it should be tied to Malott. He can do enough on top in the first two rounds to win minutes against Magny and earn his first career decision (projected +442, listed +500).
The Pick: Neil Magny Live after Round 1
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