UFC 298 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Oban Elliott vs. Val Woodburn: 2 Small Plays for Big Underdog (Saturday, February 17)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images: Pictured: UFC welterweight Oban Elliott of Wales
Oban Elliott vs. Val Woodburn Odds
| 2.5 (+142 / -182) | |
Here's everything you need to know about Oban Elliott vs. Val Woodburn at UFC 298 on Saturday, Feb. 17 our expert UFC prediction and pick.
Welsh welterweight Elliott makes his official UFC debut when he meets Woodburn, who had a lightning-quick UFC debut after suffering a speedy loss to UFC uber prospect Bo Nickal.
Can Woodburn avenge himself in his second effort, or will the heavily favored Elliott continue his winning streak?
Here's my Elliott vs. Woodburn pick and prediction for UFC 298.
Tale of the Tape
| Elliott | Woodburn | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-2 | 7-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:00 | 0:38 |
| Height | 6'0" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/19/1997 | 8/10/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.9 | 3.2 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 22% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.80 | 11.05 |
| SS Defense | 61% | 30% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 44% | 0% |
| TD Def | 0% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.0 |
After a brutal knockout loss in his UFC debut – on short notice as a +1300 underdog against rising middleweight prospect Bo Nickal – Val Woodburn will move down to welterweight to face "The Welsh Gangster" Oban Elliott.
Woodburn is the shorter fighter but owns a two-inch reach advantage in this matchup.
He carries a ton of power – previously competing 35 pounds heavier as a light heavyweight – and is both the stronger and more physical fighter, while Elliott is the more technical martial artist.
Elliott has all of the grappling upside in this fight, but I worry that he doesn't have the physical tools – namely strength – to keep Woodburn flat on the mat early, and I am concerned about his striking defense in a potential brawl.
Elliott vs. Woodburn Pick
Despite poor striking defense, Elliott is generally able to navigate through damage. Even if he eats big shots from Woodburn early and falls behind in the fight, I could see him rallying back to secure a win.
However, I'd rather not lay juice on Elliott pre-fight, when Woodburn is at his freshest and most dangerous. Elliott is worth a live entry if the price moves in after Round 1.
Ultimately, I project slight value on two betting angles pre-fight: to reach a decision (projected +145, listed +175) and for Elliott to win a decision (projected +208, listed +250). I'll take a small stab at the latter and wait to add more live on his moneyline.
The Picks: Oban Elliott wins by Decision (+250, 0.2u) at FanDuel | Oban Elliott Live after Round 1
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