UFC 299 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Kevin Holland vs. Michael Page: Bet on Finishing Upside (Saturday, March 9)
Zac Goodwin/Getty. Pictured: UFC middleweight Michael Page
Kevin Holland vs. Michael Page Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Kevin Holland vs. Michael Page odds at UFC 299 on Saturday, March 9 – with our expert UFC prediction and pick.
The UFC has made a couple of moves in the free agent market this year, with its first marquee signing making his debut this weekend in Miami.
That would be Michael "Venum" Page (or "MVP"), a Bellator and Bare Knuckle FC star with a 21-2 MMA record and a flashy, exciting style.
In a perfect bit of matchmaking, MVP is making his promotional debut against Kevin Holland, who's known for an exciting style of his own and constantly talking to his opponent.
Holland is a slight favorite early in fight week after early lines had him as a much larger favorite before being bet down. Can we still find value on the tighter line, or is time to jump back in on the UFC veteran?
Here's my Holland vs. Page preview for UFC 299.
Tale of the Tape
| Holland | Page | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 25-10 | 21-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:04 | 2:13 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 81" | n/a |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 11/5/1992 | 4/7/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.39 | 4.53 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 76% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.22 | 0.45 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 77% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.78 | 3.40 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 100% |
| TD Def | 53% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.0 |
Page was one of the very few stars left plying his trade outside of the UFC before his signing. The 35-year-old is in the twilight of his prime, but he's been a fan favorite for years thanks to his exciting style.
With two kung fu black belts as parents, MVP fights like he's in a movie, darting around the cage at lightning speed before launching a diverse range of attacks from all angles. He's one of the quickest and most explosive fighters to ever compete at 170 pounds, and he had a massive 79-inch reach that helps give him a physical edge over the vast majority of his competition.
Seamlessly switching between stances, Page fights from an extremely "bladed" stance with his hands at his waist or extended to his sides. His stance serves to further increase his reach by placing his lead shoulder even closer to his opponent – though it opens him up to leg kicks and single-leg takedowns.
Which explains why that stance is more common in the kickboxing styles Page started in, as neither leg kicks nor takedowns are allowable techniques.
Holland should have the grappling edge on paper here. He's a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with three submission wins in the UFC. Of course, that's often the case for Holland, but he rarely chooses to utilize it.
In his TKO loss to Stephen Thompson, Holland landed a pair of takedowns. However, he let Thompson back up without any progress on the ground. I don't have much concern that Holland will take the easy path over the fun one here.
Even if he does, Page has shown a remarkable ability to escape back to his feet when he is taken down. Against four-time Division I All-American Logan Storley, Page was grounded multiple times but never in any real danger on the ground. While Storley won a split decision, it was a controversial judgment – and Holland is nowhere near the same level of wrestler.
Holland does have excellent leg kicks. He's landed more than 30 in each of his last three round rights, and 44 across four rounds against Thompson.
Like Page, Holland struggles to defend leg kicks, though. This fight could come down to whichever man is able to damage his opponent's leg first.
Holding his hands low obviously puts Page at risk for strikes, particularly straight punches. However, his preternatural speed and reflexes allow him to move his head (or feet) out of the way more often than not.
Holland is a high-volume and low-accuracy striker, so I suspect MVP will be able to avoid the majority of his punches. Page's only knockout loss came while scrambling back to his feet following a leg kick, so durability isn't much of a concern either.
Offensively, Page's hand placement leads to his strikes coming from awkward angles, as well as allowing him to generate more power. His output is considerably lower than Holland's, but he's likely to land the more impactful shots.
Holland vs. Page Pick
Assuming Holland doesn't turn this one into a grappling match – which is a reasonably safe assumption – this is an extremely compelling matchup from both an entertainment and betting perspective. Both men are extremely durable: Page's only knockout loss was somewhat fluky, and Holland's came via corner stoppage (mostly) due to a broken hand against Stephen Thompson.
Over 2.5 rounds is heavily favored here, which means a decision is more likely than not. I expect the judges will have a tough task – Holland's high output of pitter-patter strikes against infrequent explosions from MVP.
My read on the current state of judging is that Page should get the benefit of the doubt. Holland lost a split decision to Jack Della Maddalena despite landing more strikes due to the Australian having the bigger moments.
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He also took plenty of damage against Thompson, who has a vaguely similar kickboxing style, minus the physical tools of Page.
My biggest concern for Page is the reach. Holland will be the first fighter he's ever faced with a longer reach on paper, with only one past opponent tying Page at 79 inches. I expect Page's length to "play up" due to his stance, but it's an important part of his game.
Still, Page has considerably higher finishing upside here, and he should at worst have a compelling case if the judges get involved.
I'll take the moneyline on Page at +115 via ESPN BET, and I would bet it down to +100 if it continues to move.
The Pick: Michael Page (+115 at ESPN BET)
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