Read our UFC Baku predictions for the Saturday, June 21 event live from the Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan. The preliminary card airs on ESPN at noon Eastern Time, with the main card starting at 3:00 ET on ABC.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 12-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their four favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Baku Moneyline Projections
UFC Baku Prop Projections
UFC Baku Best Bets
Sean Zerillo: Mohammed Usman vs. Hamdy Abdelwahab
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:05 p.m. ET
Hamdy Abdelwahab has won a pair of split decisions thus far in the UFC – a deserved win over Don'Tale Mayes in his debut (aligning with 20 of 21 media members and 83% of fan scorecards) but a more recent robbery against Jamal Pogues (eight of 13 media members and 77% of fans scored the bout for Pogues).
Abdelwahab hails from a Greco-Roman wrestling background, having competed for Egypt at the 2016 Summer Olympics. However, his base has proven relatively ineffective in MMA grappling. Fighters with freestyle or folkstyle wrestling backgrounds, who can attack their opponent's legs, typically have more success wrestling inside a cage fight.
Usman – a former Texas High School state wrestling champion – is a sturdy enough grappler to keep this fight standing, where he has a 7" reach advantage and a significant power edge.
Usman may get taken down, but he showed good scrambling abilities following takedowns by Thomas Petersen (permitted two of five attempts but only ceded 1:01 control time), and Abdelwahab hasn't shown an ability to consolidate and hold position against opponents.
I projected Usman as a +119 underdog (45.6% implied) on Saturday. Bet his moneyline down to +125 (44.4% implied) at just over a one percent edge compared to my projected line.
Moreover, I show value on Usman winning by decision (projected +259, listed +310) in a fight that the betting market expects to go the distance (projected -176, listed -200) two-thirds of the time.
The Pick: Mohammed Usman (+142 at DraftKings)
Billy Ward: Oban Elliott vs. Seokhyeon Ko
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:45 p.m. ET
This is the second half of the reshuffled fight from a couple of weeks ago, in which Seokhyeon Ko and Oban Elliot both struggled to get US Visas, leading to their opponents facing each other while Ko and Elliot meet up in Azerbaijan.
While this is a step up in competition for Ko relative to the fight with Billy Ray Goff, I like the stylistic pairing against Oban Elliott.
Before his last fight in which he knocked out a fairly disinterested Basil Hafez, Elliott had won six straight decisions, relying primarily on takedowns and top control for the three of those that came under the UFC banner.
That's a tough strategy to execute against Ko, a Judo black belt and amateur Sambo world champion prior to his transition to MMA. At worst his grappling chops should prove as a deterrent for Elliot, and at best Ko is the one getting the takedowns.
I'm not impressed enough by Elliott on the feet to justify him being such a heavy favorite. He was knocked down by Val Woodburn in his UFC debut, and both of his career losses came via knockout.
While I took a sprinkle on Ko straight up early in the week, the +400 I got then is no longer available.
I'm adding on with a half-unit play on his point spread at DraftKings. That prop requires Ko to win at least one round and not get finished, which seems reasonably likely against a decision-heavy fighter like Elliott.
The Pick: Ko +3.5 Point Spread +140 (DraftKings)
