UFC on ESPN 41 PrizePicks Props: Grab This Gabriel Benitez Time Prop (Saturday, August 13)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC lightweight Gabriel Benitez
The UFC heads to San Diego with a 13-fight card on Saturday afternoon. UFC on ESPN 41 is a perfect opportunity to get some action in – even if you aren’t in a legal betting state. PrizePicks lets you do just that, allowing you to build parlays based on a variety of player props.
Below, you’ll find my favorite parlay for Saturday’s UFC San Diego (4 p.m. ET), with some additional options to increase your payouts.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
UFC Fight Night PrizePicks Parlay
David Onama – Over 58.5 Significant Strikes
Even after manually adjusting his numbers down, David Onama still leads my projections in significant strikes by a wide margin. His per-minute stats have been massive in his UFC run as he’s landed nearly six strikes per minute in his three-fight career.
The issue, of course, is how quickly he’s finished his most recent opponents. His past two fights took about 13 minutes combined, and they resulted in 29 and 36 significant strikes for Onama.
This time, though, he’s fighting Nate Landwehr, a significant step up in competition. Landwehr is a brawler with excellent (87%) takedown defense and a propensity to eat a ton of strikes (5.96 per minute.)
Landwehr’s takedown defense will be crucial for this prop, as Onama took a wrestling-heavy approach in his last fight. That should prove much tougher against Landwehr, a very solid grappler.
The biggest risk is that Onama puts Landwehr away early, so pivoting to his fantasy points prop of 94.5 is a reasonable option, as well. I think Landwehr makes this a competitive fight, though, so I prefer the over on Onama’s strikes.
Gabriel Benitez Fight Time – Over 5.0 Minutes
Gabriel Benitez is a big favorite over Charlie Ontiveros in a lightweight bout. Benitez is expected to make short work of Ontiveros, as evidenced by the extremely low fight time prop on PrizePicks.
However, I’m not so sure that’s how this one is going to play out. Yes, Ontiveros has been finished in both of his first two UFC bouts. However, one was against Kevin Holland – at middleweight, no less – while the other came against Steve Garcia.
Benitez is not nearly as threatening of an opponent as either of those two, especially since he’s primarily a lightweight. He should be considerably smaller than the 6-foot-2 Ontiveros. Benitez has also lost four of his past five, with his only win coming against the since-cut Justin Jaynes.
All of which is to say that the heavy underdog should be able to survive at least five minutes in this one. I’m almost as worried about Ontiveros picking up a quick finish as I am Benitez, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take.
- Ode Osborne Over 60.5 Significant Strikes: This is another line in which the bigger risk is a quick finish, not Ode Osborne being unable to land enough strikes on a per-minute basis to get there. He averages a solid 4.82 per minute, with opponent Tyson Nam absorbing 5.69. Nam hasn’t been finished since 2013, though, and I expect his durability holds up.
- Ariane Lipski Under 1.0 Takedowns: Lipski has landed exactly one takedown in the entirety of her UFC career – and that came in her debut. In the six fights since, she’s attempted only four. I don’t see that changing against Priscilla Cachoeira. While I wish this line were still 1.5, a win is still far more likely than a loss, with a push being a strong possibility, as well.