UFC Fight Night: Betting Projections, Odds, Props & Picks for Every Saturday Fight in Las Vegas (Oct. 31)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Andre Fili
- Looking for value on today's UFC slate? Sean Zerillo uses his crowdsourced model to break down every fight on the card.
- Check out everything you need to bet UFC Fight Night below, including models, projections, odds and picks.
The UFC returns to APEX in Las Vegas on Saturday with an 11-fight card, beginning with six preliminary bouts at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The main card starts at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and concludes with a middleweight contest between Brazilian MMA legend Anderson Silva and Jamaican Uriah Hall.
In addition to moneylines and over/unders, there are numerous ways to bet on an MMA fight — including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.
As a result, after examining all of the betting options, your typical UFC card can offer a substantial amount of actionable value.
Check out the full betting odds for Saturday’s UFC card, with analysis and picks for each fight below:
UFC Fight Night Moneyline Projections and Picks
Below, you can find my crowdsourced fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday’s 11 bouts. In the next section, you’ll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside of the distance, or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.
UFC Fight Night Prop Projections and Picks
In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission — which enables us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.
The Fights I’m Betting
As of writing, Saturday’s card looks particularly chalky. And one of my favorite betting spots (on Cortney Casey) fell off the card due to a weight cut issue.
As a result, we’re left with just 11 bouts for Saturday, but I do have wagers on eight fights.
Dustin Jacoby vs. Justin Ledet
Ledet is a former boxer who has put little effort into developing his ground game (42% takedown defense), leading to a severe grappling deficiency against most UFC opponents. He is currently on a three-fight losing streak since moving down to Light Heavyweight.
Jacoby, who competed in Glory (kickboxing) after an 0-2 run in the UFC in 2011-2012, doesn’t necessarily have the wrestling skills to force this fight to the mat consistently, but he comes in off of a dominant decision win (30-26, 29-26, 29-26) in contender series (117-30 on significant strikes) on Aug. 4 where he secured a takedown and landed a combined 60-of-69 clinch or ground strikes.
Unfortunately, that grappling eventually gassed him out, and Jacoby’s strike efficiency dropped off significantly in Round 3.
Perhaps Ledet takes over this fight late, but if Jacoby mixes up his kickboxing with a couple of takedown attempts, he should win enough minutes to secure the first two rounds.
The projection shows slight value on Jacoby to win inside the distance (projected -115), but I think a decision is his more likely winning method. Ledet has only been finished once – by the freakish Johnny Walker.
From my perspective, I wouldn’t use Jacoby as anything more than a small parlay piece.
Bets to Consider:
- Use Jacoby as a parlay piece (play to -350)
Sean Strickland vs. Jack Marshman
Strickland is fighting for the first time in two years, following a December 2018 motorcycle accident where he suffered a horrific knee injury. He was 7-3 in the UFC’s welterweight division to that point, but will now make the move up to middleweight against Jack Marshman (three-inch reach deficiency), one of two fighters who missed weight on Friday.
Marshman is an active but highly inefficient brawler (28% striking accuracy), who could get doubled-up on the feet by Strickland (+1.7 strikes landed per minute) — a far better defensive fighter (64% striking defense vs. 57% for Marshman).
Furthemore, Strickland is the far superior grappler, and if he decides to employ his wrestling (1.37 takedowns per 15 minutes, 57% accuracy) against Marshman (20% takedown defense) he should spend a significant portion of this fight in control.
While Strickland is coming in off of a significant layoff (less than 40% win rate after one year), Marshman is also a late replacement (38% win rate on less than 40 days), and I would consider those two angles to be a wash.
The projection likes the fight to go the distance 65% of the time, implied odds of -186, so there’s value relative to listed odds at -115 (implied 53.5%).
I think Marshman is pretty knockout-dependent, however, and Strickland’s odds to win by decision (+140, implied 41.7%) offer a more substantial edge relative to my projection (-141, 58.5%).
You can also toss Strickland into a moneyline parlay.
Bets to Consider:
- Fight goes the Distance (play to -122)
- Strickland to win by Decision (play to +106)
- Use Strickland as a parlay piece (play to -450)
Adrian Yanez vs. Victor Rodriguez
This Bantamweight showdown features a pair of fighters making their official UFC debuts, but Yanez recently scored the fastest knockout in contender series history, while Rodriguez enters as a late replacement (38% win rate) from the consistently underwhelming Alaska FC promotion.
Yanez is 11-3 for his career, but all three losses came to current or future UFC talents, and he is an incredibly technical offensive striker with fast hands:
— Lewis Simpson MMA (@LGS_MMA) August 12, 2020
Perhaps more importantly, Yanez has never been finished, despite taking damage in several fights, leaving him with the ideal skillset to stand and bang, win over fans, and pickup performance bonuses inside of the octagon.
Yanez still has work to do on his defensive wrestling, but he has the size advantage in this matchup (two inches taller, three inches longer), the presumed strength advantage, and the countering ability to make Rodriguez pay for his reckless aggression.
I projected Yanez to win inside the distance 68.8% of the time (implied odds of -221) and you can bet the Yanez finish prop up to -176 (implied 63.8%) at a 5% edge and/or toss him into a moneyline parlay.
Bets to Consider:
- Yanez to win Inside the Distance (play to -176)
- Use Yanez as a parlay piece (play to -495)
Chris Gruetzmacher vs. Alexander Hernandez
This looks like a get-right spot for Hernandez, once considered a shiny UFC prospect, who was favored over Donald Cerrone in January 2019 and scheduled against Islam Makachev earlier this year. The UFC isn’t ready to give up on him yet, and this fight is a serious step down in competition.
In theory, Gruetzemacher could have a pace edge, averaging 7.12 significant strikes landed per minute in the UFC, but this is his first fight in more than two years following ACL surgery, and Hernandez is the larger (+4 inches of reach) stronger, and faster man, with a pretty clear path to victory through his offensive wrestling (2.15 takedowns per 15 minutes, 38% accuracy).
Following a quick knockout over Beneil Dariush in his UFC debut, Hernandez has surprisingly been far more tentative in style. If he fails to aggressively attack his opponents’ weaknesses, Hernandez could fall victim to another upset.
But it’s hard to find an area, besides grit and stamina, where Gruetzmacher possibly has an edge in this matchup, and I’m going to key on Hernandez in any parlays.
Bets to Consider:
- Use Hernandez as a parlay piece (play to -550)
Bobby Green vs. Thiago Moises
From 2015-2019, Green went 1-4-1 over six appearances in the UFC, but he’ll now search for his fourth win of 2020, and his second four-fight winning streak with the promotion against the Brazilian Moises, who presents a favorable matchup for the American.
Green is the far-superior striker, both in terms of volume (+2.45 significant strikes landed per minute) and efficiency (+8% accuracy, +6% defense, +1.77 to -0.86 differential).
Furthermore, Green is a very adept and continually improving grappler, landing 1.53 takedowns per 15 minutes (39% accuracy) in the UFC, including nine of his 12 attempts in 2020, while stuffing takedowns at a high rate on the defensive end (74%); including 15 of 20 attempts in 2020.
Green hasn’t been submitted since 2009.
That severely limits the path to victory for the 25-year-old Moises. His takedown accuracy (28%) is subpar, and even if he does get Green to the mat, Bobby is extremely effective at avoiding submissions attempts and getting back to his feet.
Moises has good power, and he is a very opportunistic grappler, but he is the type of fighter that is generally losing his fights until the moment that he wins.
For example, he was dominated by Michael Johnson in the first round of their May 13 bout — down 27-1 on significant strikes in a likely 10-8 Round 1 — before securing an early second-round tap:
Wow Michael Johnson has officially falling off. Sheesh great finish from Thiago Moises. #UFCJacksonville
— WhatsUpSE (@WhatsUpSE) May 14, 2020
So long as Bobby Green continues to keep his head on straight, this is his fight to lose. And there’s a high probability that he scores a wide decision.
I would bet Green to win by decision to -188 (implied 65.3%), a 5% edge relative to my projection at -248 (implied 71.3%), and use him as the final parlay piece on this potentially chalky card.
Bets to Consider:
- Green to win by Decision (play to -188)
- Use Green as a parlay piece (play to -400)
Kevin Holland vs. Charlie Ontiveros
Holland originally had an exciting fight scheduled with Makmud Muradov, where he was just a slight favorite, but he re-opened around-800 (implied 88.9%) against very late-replacement in Charlie Ontiveros, who I admittedly know very little about.
From what I have gathered, Ontiveros is nowhere near UFC caliber, but the prices on this fight are already pretty crazy. For example, Holland is -125 to win in the first round alone, and -275 (implied 73.3%) to win inside the distance.
I projected the Holland inside the distance price closer to 84%, but my projections for this bout, specifically, are built upon very limited data.
I’m not going to include Holland in parlays at his current price, but Ontiveros has suffered all six of his career defeats by KO/TKO, and I think the Under 1.5 rounds is underpriced, relative to the other props.
You should be getting an extremely motivated Kevin Holland here. He isn’t a potent finisher, but Holland just recorded a split-decision win in his last fight against Darren Stewart and looked noticeably disappointed in his exchange afterward with Dana White.
Holland was immediately ready to run that fight back, and will surely look to style upon a significantly inferior opponent in front of the boss just six weeks later.
Holland is a free square in DFS this week.
Bets to Consider:
- Under 1.5 Rounds (Bet to -180)
Maurice Green vs. Greg Hardy
I don’t see any projected value on this fight, but this spot does look ripe to bet a Heavyweight over, one of the more consistently profitable contrarian bets in MMA.
Hardy recorded each of his first five career MMA wins by knockout, but he has modified his style in his past three bouts, using his length (80″ reach) to strike from distance, rather than consistently pressuring his opponents.
Hardy had a six-inch reach advantage in his last fight, but the 6-foot-7 Greene can match him in terms of size and length, even though Hardy is both stronger and more durable than his opponent.
Hardy struggled with the weight cut for this fight, and I would expect him to conserve energy in the early going, in case he isn’t able to put Greene (subpar 47% striking defense) down.
Greene defeated a bloated Gian Villante via arm triangle in June, but he was nearly finished in that fight — which would have made for three consecutive stoppage losses on his record. Perhaps Greene’s grappling skill (five submission wins) is an additional reason for Hardy to stay at range early and try to pick his shots.
These two giants could ramp up the intensity in this bout as the fight goes along, but I don’t see early aggression benefitting either man.
Bets to Consider:
- Over 1.5 Rounds (play to -150)
Bryce Mitchell vs. Andre Fili
This Featherweight co-main event is the most anticipated fight from a fan perspective on Saturday, as Bryce “Thug Nasty” Mitchell will pull on his camouflage trunks against Andre “Touchy” Fili.
Fili’s takedown defense (69%) will be the key to this fight, as Mitchell (2.13 takedowns per 15 minutes, 41% accuracy) is a high-level submission grappler who is powerful and competent on the feet, but severely outclassed by Fili’s reach (+4 inches), technique, and volume (+1.85 strikes landed per minute).
Fili has largely turned into a point-fighter in the UFC — eight of his past nine fights have gone to decision — and he is 9-3 for his career on the scorecards, thanks to his ability to change levels (2.7 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, 49% accuracy) and swing rounds.
Obviously, Fili will want to keep this fight standing and rely on his range weapons, likely choosing his jab over leg kicks, in order to limit takedown openings for Mitchell.
The two most likely paths to victory are Mitchell by submission or Fili by decision. There is value on both prop bets, but I’m on the Fili side. Fili has competed against top-flight competition at 145, while this is a step up for Mitchell.
The underdog moneyline has dropped from a peak of +141, down to +110 over the past week.
Bets to Consider:
- Fili to win by Decision (play to +250); or
- Mitchell to win by Submission (play to +200)
The Fights I’m Passing
Miles Johns vs. Kevin Natividad
Natividad is making his octagon debut against a UFC veteran (43% win rate), while Johns is coming off of his first career loss via knockout.
I don’t see any projected value on this fight, but I would expect Johns to have the edge if he relies on his wrestling base, while Natividad — a popular underdog pick this week — should be the more dangerous man on the feet.
Fighters often make significant adjustments after suffering their first career defeat, and I’m interested to see if Johns has made any improvements as a result.
Cole Williams vs. Jason Witt
This is the lone bout showing projected value that I’m skipping from a betting perspective on Saturday, as I’m passing on potential wagers for this fight to go the distance (projected 69% or -223), or on Witt to win by decision (projected 47.4% or +111)
Both men are searching for their first win inside the octagon and may come out aggressively inside of the 25-foot cage at UFC Apex.
Williams showed a suspect chin against Takashi Sato in June, while Witt was easily finished by neck crank against Claudio Silva in September.
I have questions about the durability of both fighters. Furthermore, Williams came in 4.5 pounds overweight on Friday — but he was actually my preferred side in this spot.
He is the naturally larger man (three inches of reach, two inches taller) and a former collegiate wrestler who should have a more well-rounded and technical skillset than his Witt.
This is a low-level fight, and this spot screams pass.
Uriah Hall vs. Anderson Silva
MMA legend Anderson Silva will make his final walk to the octagon on Saturday.
Now 45-years-old, Silva is 1-6-1 in the octagon since 2013, though most of those losses have come against the best in the world at Middleweight (Israel Adesanya, Michael Bisping, Daniel Cormier, Chris Weidman x2).
His lone win during that span came over Derek Burnson in 2017, and he had a decision against Nick Diaz overturned to a no-contest (doping) in 2015.
Silva took a significant layoff (after suffering a leg injury against Jared Cannonier last May), and he is also the much older fighter — leading to a win expectancy of around 36% based upon those factors alone.
The actual projections align with my analysis, which either sees an aggressive Uriah Hall securing a finish over a legend 10 years past his prime or a staredown between two low-volume counterpunchers with a great deal of respect for one another, which goes to a close decision.
Hall has more power, but the volume differential is negligible (+0.27 strikes landed per minute) and Silva, historically, is the far more efficient striker (+12% accuracy, +8% defense).
Obviously, Silva’s efficiency has waned with age, and if his leg remains compromised after that Cannonier loss, Hall should be able to walk down and finish a fighter that he once idolized.
The fan in me will be rooting for “The Spider” to leave us with one last flash of brilliance in the cage, but this is a rare main event where I couldn’t find an actionable betting angle.
Despite the losing streak, the betting market has generally sided with Silva before his recent fights, but that’s not the case this time. Hall opened around -180 (implied 64.3%) and has climbed more than 7% to -250 (implied 71.4%) as of writing.
Zerillo’s UFC Fight Night Bets
- Parlay: Alexander Hernandez / Dustin Jacoby / Sean Strickland (+105, 0.5u)
- Parlay: Alexander Hernandez / Bobby Green / Adrian Yanez (+100, 0.5u)
- Adrian Yanez to win Inside the Distance (-155, Risk 1u)
- Andre Fili to win by Decision (+250, 0.5u)
- Bobby Green to win by Decision (-140, 1u)
- Sean Strickland to win by Decision (+140, 0.5u)
- Kevin Holland / Charlie Ontiveros, Under 1.5 Rounds (-152, 0.5u)
- Maurice Greene / Greg Hardy, Over 1.5 Rounds (-125, 0.5u)