Brian Ortega vs. Chan Sung Jung Odds, Pick & Prediction: Back The Korean Zombie to Come Alive Early (Saturday, Oct. 17)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: Chan Sung Jung of South Korea.
- Saturday's high-stakes fight between Brian Ortega and Chan Sung Jung will determine the No. 1 contender for the Featherweight belt.
- Reed Wallach breaks down Saturday's bout and gives his betting picks for Ortega vs. Jung below.
Brian Ortega vs. Chan Sung Jung Odds
|Ortega odds||+160 [BET NOW]|
|Jung odds||-200 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-106/-125) [BET NOW]|
|Venue||Yas Island, Abu Dhabi|
|Time||Saturday, 9 p.m. ET|
Dana White said last week that the main event of this UFC Fight Night card between Brian Ortega and Chan Sung Jung, otherwise known as “The Korean Zombie” would determine the No. 1 contender for the Featherweight belt, so the stakes are high heading into this one.
Ortega will be making his return to the UFC on Saturday. We last saw Ortega losing via doctor stoppage to Max Holloway in a Featherweight title fight at UFC 231. Ortega went off the grid after that, but he was 14-0 heading into that title bout. His opponent is a vicious striker and he will be looking to finish the returning contender in quick fashion.
Who will get a title shot at the end of the night? Let’s break down this fight to see where the betting value lies.
Tale of the Tape
|Record||14-1 (1 NC)||16-5|
|Avg. Fight Time||11:01||9:39|
|Weight (pounds)||145 lbs.||145 lbs.|
|Date of birth||2/21/91||3/17/87|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||4.07||4.58|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||7.36||3.73|
|Take Down Avg||0.51||0.78|
The disparity in Significant Strike Differential really stands out between these two fighters (-3.29 for Ortega, +0.85 for Jung). Both fighters are looking to land big shots and you can be sure that will factor into this matchup.
The Korean Zombie and Ortega are both tied for second behind only Max Holloway in terms of finishes among active featherweight fighters. Ortega does have a significant advantage in Submission Average and has finished three opponents by submission as a featherweight.
Brian Ortega vs. Chan Sung Jung Betting Pick
‘The Korean Zombie’ is a violent striker who has won his past two fights via first round knockout, including an absolute beatdown of UFC legend Frankie Edgar. He has had a layoff of his own, taking off from the UFC from late 2013 to 2017, but the 32-year-old has been on a tear since making his return, winning three of four and his only lost came at the fifth round horn.
The real difference in this matchup is Jung’s striking and the fact that Ortega is known to take some shots in his past fights. He takes more than seven significant strikes per minute, according to UFC Stats, which is more than double what the Korean Zombie absorbs on average. Of course, “The City” has not fought since 2018 so maybe there is a stylistic change, but with that also comes ring rust.
Ortega’s path to victory is not going to be out striking his opponent, but getting this one to the ground and locking in his guillotine choke. However, Jung has been adept at stunting takedowns and is a calculated fighter. He has a takedown defense of 77% and has never lost by submission.
The line was Korean Zombie -180 throughout the week, but that line has jumped up towards -200, which is a lot of juice to lay against a fighter that is as talented as Ortega and also presents somewhat of a wild card.
Ultimately, I am going to side with Zombie, but I’m going to play him to win inside the distance. I’m not sure Ortega will be able to shake off the rust in time to settle into this fight and get busy and Jung is capable of finishing this in the first round.
The Pick: Jung Inside the Distance (+110) | Jung in Round 1.5 U (+350)