Tim Elliott vs. Ryan Benoit Odds, Pick & Prediction: Back the Savvy UFC Vet to Snap His Losing Streak at Fight Island
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: Tim Elliott poses on the scale during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in.
- The updated UFC Fight Night odds list flyweight Tim Elliott as a -144 betting favorite against Ryan Benoit (+122 underdog) in Wednesday's Fight Island event.
- Elliott is in need of a win after dropping three straight bouts since last year. Is he the right side in this matchup?
- Dann Stupp previews the fight including his betting pick for tonight's co-main event.
Tim Elliott vs. Ryan Benoit Odds
|Elliott odds||-144 [BET NOW]|
|Benoit odds||+122 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-158/+124) [BET NOW]|
|Venue||Yas Island, Abu Dhabi|
|Time||Wednesday at 11:30 p.m. ET|
On the heels of a UFC 251 main card that was loaded with intriguing matchups, Wednesday’s Fight Night card certainly doesn’t measure up in terms of wow factor.
But we’ve seen amazing perfomances and finishes come from unlikely places before in the octagon. Tonight’s co-main event could be one of those performances with flyweights Tim Elliott (No. 13 in the division) and Ryan Benoit facing of on the second card at Fight Island in Abu Dhabi.
Both fighters are looking to get back in the win column with Benoit hoping to carry over the momentum from a close split-decision loss to Heili Alateng in December. Elliott, in his third matchup of 2020, is hoping to end a three-fight losing streak that started with a loss to top-ranked flyweight Deiveson Figueiredo in October.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||11:46||10:54|
|Weight (pounds)||125 lbs.||125 lbs.|
|Date of birth||12/24/86||8/25/89|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||3.41||2.80|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||2.53||3.18|
|Take Down Avg||4.31||0.20|
Here’s an in-depth preview of that matchup below, including where I see some potential betting value. You can also check out Sean Zerillo’s analysis of all 11 bouts here.
Tim Elliott vs. Ryan Benoit Betting Pick
Quite simply, this is the opponent Tim Elliott needs at this time.
Elliott (16-11-1), a former UFC title challenger, has lost three consecutive fights. But it’s clear the UFC believes in the wild-man flyweight veteran, who inked a new deal with the worldwide MMA leader prior to this favorable matchup against Ryan Benoit (10-6).
Heading into this co-main event, Elliott has earned four of the UFC’s $50,000 event-night bonuses, including three coveted Fight of the Night awards. The 33-year-old is usually a good option to spice up a card that needs a barnburner, and he comes at a reasonable price (Elliott earned a disclosed payout of $31,000 in his most recent bout).
So, despite the vet’s recent skid, it’s easy to see why the UFC wants to remain in the Tim Elliott business and is willing to give him another shot — in a high-profile slot on the card.
But sure, the consecutive losses and overall 2-5 skid might make you hesitate to plunk down money on Elliott this time around. However, keep in mind that the recent defeats came to fighters currently ranked No. 1 (Deiveson Figueiredo), No. 7 (Askar Askarov) and No. 11 (Brandon Royval) in the UFC’s official 125-pound rankings, where Elliott is No. 13. Additionally, styles make fights, and against unranked Benoit, there are a lot of reasons to like the wrestling-oriented Elliott.
The energetic and high-output southpaw will no doubt look for takedowns, chokes and dominant positions on the mat. Benoit’s best shot at victory is catching Elliott with punches during a takedown attempt or scramble.
However, it’s worth noting that Elliott’s chin has been tested — often in recent years — yet he hasn’t been knocked out in 25 fights stretching back more than a decade (Elliott’s third pro fight).
Tonight’s fight originally opened with what seemed to be an appropriate line: Elliott at -190. But with a steady stream of money coming in on 30-year-old Benoit, who has just one win (over unheralded Ashkan Mokhtarian) since late 2016, Elliott has since become too good to pass up with his line dropping as low as -126.
With Benoit’s recent inactivity, inconsistency, and his limited striking output even when he’s at his best, it’s hard to see him winning 48% of the time like his current line (+108) suggests he should.
Not only do I like Elliott with a money line bet, I’m going to put a half unit on the juicy prop line of Elliott via submission (+440) in this flyweight co-feature.