UFC Fight Night Best Bets: Our Favorite Plays for McGee vs. Condit & De Castro vs. Felipe (Saturday, Oct. 3)
Darrian Traynor/Getty Images. Pictured: Yorgan De Castro of Cape Verde.
- Our MMA experts have highlighted two matches on Saturday's UFC Fight Night card with the best betting value.
- Sean Zerillo breaks down how to bet Yorgan De Castro vs. Carlos Felipe and Reed Wallach shares his pick for Carlos Condit vs. Court McGee.
It’s another busy Saturday in the sports world and in the world of MMA with a UFC Fight Night card on the docket. Holly Holm and Irene Aldana headline tonight’s action, which takes place at Yas Island in Abu Dhabi (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN).
So where should you be looking to place your bets for UFC on Fight Island?
Our crew has pinpointed two fights on Saturday’s card that present the awesome betting value. You can find their analysis and picks on those matches below.
Sean Zerillo: Yorgan De Castro vs. Carlos Felipe
Betting Analyst, The Action Network
The last time we saw De Castro, he got outclassed by Greg Hardy, who has a freakish reach, after De Castro appeared to injure his foot in Round 1.
Felipe seems durable, and De Castro generally slows down after applying heat early in the fight. But Felipe has cardio issues to watch as well. He made his UFC debut in July off a three-year layoff, following a USADA suspension, and he wasn’t particularly impressive against Sergey Spivak.
I think De Castro should have opportunities to chop down Felipe’s lead leg early in the fight – and so long as he doesn’t compromise his foot again, the Cape Verdean should eventually stiffen that leg and find openings inside of the pocket to land power shots.
Give me the favorite on the moneyline.
The Bet: Yorgan de Castro (-250, 0.5 units)
Reed Wallach: Carlos Condit vs. Court McGee
Contributor at The Action Network
We see this situation present itself in the UFC often, an aging fighter getting name recognition and respect but simply doesn’t have it anymore. Carlos Condit has been through wars in the octagon as well as title fights over his 43 fight career against some of the best of the best. However, this is not the same Condit, who is on a five fight skid and has not had his hand raised since 2015.
His opponent, McGee isn’t in the best form either, loser of four of his last five, but has been able to hang, going to the judge’s scorecards in his last six fights. Even if the scraps have not been in favor of him, McGee has shown to be durable and keep a steady output throughout, mixing in takedowns and able to protect himself in fights, posting a strong strike defense rate of 61%, according to UFCStats.com.
Ultimately, this is a fade of Condit at his current state. McGee is capable of keeping his energy up for a full 15 and keep Condit guessing, who doesn’t posses the same speed he once had. McGee doesn’t land takedowns at an efficient rate, just 21%, but he tries them often and will be the one initiating the action, enough to win over the judges on the scorecards, if it gets there.
In light of that, I see more value in taking McGee by decision, which is listed at +140 at PointsBet, instead of laying the price as a favorite. While Condit is susceptible to being finished in his leaner years, losing inside the distance in three of his past four, I don’t know if McGee has the power to finish him off.
The Pick: McGee by Decision +140
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