UFC Fight Night Ladd vs. Dumont Odds & Pick: Saturday’s Main Even Betting Preview & Prediction (Saturday, October 14)

UFC Fight Night Ladd vs. Dumont Odds & Pick: Saturday’s Main Even Betting Preview & Prediction (Saturday, October 14) article feature image

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC fighter Norma Dumont.

  • Aspen Ladd and Norma Dumont face off in Saturday's UFC Vegas 40 main event.
  • Ladd took the fight on short notice and is moving up in weight, yet is still the favorite.
  • Erich Richter breaks down the fight and gives his top plays, below.

Aspen Ladd vs. Norma Dumont Odds

Ladd Odds-140
Dumont Odds+120
Over/Under4.5 (+100/ -130)
TimeApprox. 6 p.m. ET
Odds as of  Friday and via DraftKings.

The main event for UFC Vegas 40 features a pair of women's featherweights. Aspen Ladd will turn around and moves up a weight class to face Norma Dumont in a five-round main event.

Ladd nearly fainted on the scale two weeks ago attempting to make weight for her bantamweight bout against Macy Chiasson. She moves up in this one as a replacement to an injured Holy Holm. Aspen Ladd is a consensus favorite this weekend despite moving up in weight.

Tale of the Tape

Weight (pounds)145 lbs.145.5 lbs.
Reach (inches)66"67"
Date of birth3/1/9510/1/90
Sig Strikes Per Min5.224.98
SS Accuracy55%53%
SS Absorbed Per Min4.842.86
SS Defense46%67%
Take Down Avg2/451.79
TD Acc75%40%
TD Def66%100%
Submission Avg1.20.0

Aspen Ladd moving up in weight on short notice after a brutal weight cut is a curious choice. Typically, I would prefer fighters to wait a bit before having such a tough weight cut. Moreover, the move up in weight should make it easier for her to compete but also leads to some size concerns.

Norma showed improved striking in her last bout against Felicia Spencer. Spencer opened as a -350 favorite in that fight but was outstruck thoroughly by Dumont in the first two rounds and lost a decision.

Sportsbooks have been fading Dumont since she got into the UFC. She has closed as an underdog in each of her UFC bouts including this one. She continues to defy the odds and compete at the highest level.

Interestingly, Dumont was known as more of a grappler with poor striking, but that has not necessarily been accurate. She owns a solid significant striking differential (+2.12) which compares favorably to Ladd who owns just a +.38 significant strike differential.

Dumont is able to avoid putting herself in danger with an excellent 67% significant striking defense and puts out some solid volume. Her takedowns are not a significant part of her game, but I would like to see her really work the clinch battle against Ladd and tire her out.

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Dumont vs. Ladd Pick

As a general rule of thumb, I tend to fade fighters who are moving up in weight rather than moving down. I am especially excited to bet against a fighter that is moving up in weight, on short notice as a favorite.

Aside from the obvious weight disparity, Dumont has shown legitimate improvements with her striking. Furthermore, she has a 100% takedown defense in her UFC career.

Ladd averages 2.45 takedowns per 15 minutes, so this is a significant part of her game. If she can't land takedowns at a higher weight class, I have reservations about her ability to win the stand-up battle.

Dumont is currently +300 to win this fight by decision on FanDuel. Ladd cutting weight two times in two weeks is a clear disadvantage, especially if she intends to grapple.

I see value on Dumont's moneyline as well as her decision prop. I cap her decision prop down to +250 and think she should be a favorite on the moneyline.  Dumont is currently a +114 underdog on FanDuel which I like at any plus money price.

The Pick: Dumont +114 | Dumont by decision +300 (down to +250)

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